Downsizing engines will stop in a couple of years or so, and manufacturers will have to go back to larger engines and N/A engines as real world emissions testing becomes the norm.
Instead of lab based fuel emissions testing, all regulatory testing will have to be done in real world situations, subjecting new vehicles to more realistic real-world NOx tests starts from later this year, then all vehicles sold in Europe will need to be compliant by 2019. A new global standard for real-world testing of fuel economy, NOx and CO2 output will reportedly come into force from 2021.
Although no manufacturers have yet gone on record about their future engine plans, from personally talking to various power train engineers from various manufactures such as Renault, GM, and Volkswagen, all are saying that they are planning to scrap or upsize their smallest petrol and diesel engines, within 2 to 3 years.
Certainly Alain Raposo, head of powertrain development at Renault-Nissan, confirmed “The techniques we’ve used to reduce engine capacities will no longer allow us to meet emissions standards. We’re reaching the limits of downsizing.”