Soldato
Yikes, Guess the Agile honeymoon may be over but am curious to know the justification considering good solar and wind over the last several days.
Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)
- Thread starter DXP55
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Wind forecasts over the next couple of days don't look brilliant.
Yes its been gone since 1 July, which is also around the same time those who was on the Agile Feb 2018 35p tariff deal's were coming to an end as well. New Agile is capped at 100p.
If its same as last year, things will get rougher until late autumn, it was my view last year, this coincided with the EU filling up their gas reserves ready for winter as due to our heavy reliance on gas for electric generation (which we really need to get rid off) there is a link between the two costs. But of course that could have just been coincidental.
Tracker is also capped at 100p but the prices wont go as high as Agile due to the lower multiplier.
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Soldato
March '24 for me, it's going to be painful, but at least the pain is considerably later than others. I shall be looking at Octopus when the time comes,with a potential move to EV.
I think I'll have a look 3-6 months in advance. See what the situation looks like. Certainly won't have an EV. But too far away to predict (guess) at now.
I just checked, the prices today for gas and electric on tracker, I dont think there is any deviation here from what has been seen since prices started been low last winter.
Just looks like to me some panicking from risk averse peeps who have recently moved over.
Just looks like to me some panicking from risk averse peeps who have recently moved over.
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Soldato
Panicking?
Tracker is going to go up. I suspect it will be above the standard at the deepest part of winter. Maybe 8-10p a kwh, Cap is 30p I believe.
Its volatile. Its clearly bounced off the bottom and is now going back up.
Lowest I can see now as I deleted a load of data is 3.5p on 18,29-30 Jul, today its 4.79p
Yes it goes up and down, but there has been posts recently every time its in an upward direction. It was over 6p earlier in the year, so going up to 4.79p isnt a volatile jump. Given current market conditions 4.79p remains cheap for gas.
As an example gas moved up from 3.3p to to 4.4p as recent as last month, then it went down again below 4p, this movement up and down is very gradual typical market conditions. In march it was over 6p. This time last year gas tracker was 20p.
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Soldato
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110 GW of wind would be 4 times as much as current installed capacity. That much may have requested connection no way that much is getting built.
80 GW of solar would be 8 times the current installed capacity. Much as above.
No one is building a new pumped storage of any scale in the UK, the public inquiry would take 10 years.
Battery storage and hydrogen storage are largely unproven at scale and the entire Western World is throwing money at it meaning the lead times are pushing out hugely.
Post combustion carbon cature will go ahead on a small scale but is probably the least efficient way of achieving the same aim, I would be on private pipeline Blue Hydrogen from North Sea gas being a more scaleable solution for CCGT's.
What is going on behind the scenes are large dependable generators (mostly CCGT's) are working out how to extend the life of their plants and even build new ones because the Green Miracle may not come as quickly as you think.
When. It’s never been this high. Highest since I’ve been on agile in Feb was 40p
Soldato
I have a follow on twitter for energy stats uk. They publish a load of the data in advance.
Last week middle of the week it went above 40p for the first time recently (average UK).
But if you watch the graphs the red spikes (higher cost) have been increasing in height relative to standard and also frequency.
The trend has been there it was just a matter of time until you got a nasty day, much like the odd chunky negative day from 3 weeks or so ago.
Went over 40p in July as well, from memory around the middle of July.
It’s all happening - I work for the NG ESO connections team and these projects have to commit significant sums (over £10bn in security across all projects) to NG so we don’t build infrastructure which isn’t wasted customer money, should they decide to cancel.
These projects and the future energy requirements for the UK are all referenced in my teams Future Energy Scenario Document : https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios
Thought future wind capacity was being re-thought - mftrs said UK inflation, borrowing cost, labour costs, materials, windfall tax means some of the future projects are no longer economic to bid on,
not sure what the government will do to address that - to avoid companies just building elsewhere in the world.
New issue on future LNG supply too, that will play into tracker prices, if we are unable to keep Rough full for the upcoming reduced solar, bacalmed autumn season.
www.bloomberg.com
not sure what the government will do to address that - to avoid companies just building elsewhere in the world.
New issue on future LNG supply too, that will play into tracker prices, if we are unable to keep Rough full for the upcoming reduced solar, bacalmed autumn season.
European Gas Prices Gain on Australia LNG Workers’ Ultimatum
European natural gas jumped to a two-month high as workers at export facilities in Australia prepare for strikes that could significantly dent global supplies in the run-up to winter.
www.bloomberg.com
Caporegime
I’m enjoying the ten quid gas bills at the minute
My gas bill is mostly standing charges....actual usage is barely 2 quid a month.
I think that coincides with the gas increase last month I mentioned in my last post, as when I had a look I noticed electric went up at same time. Sadly the two are tied to each other currently.
Soldato
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I've read FES documents in the past and they're highly speculative documents to give the best view of possible scenarios (I haven't read 2023's though).
110 GW of offshore wind is a £220-250 Bn investment, 80 GW of solar is a £160 Bn investment without the untried and untested battery and hydrogen costs on top. If you're in the connections team you'll be aware of the difficulties in wayleaves and crossing agreements that take years before a project can actually go ahead. Supply chains are pushing out particulalry for large transformers and then the other projects like static and synchronous compensation to make it all work with so much generation at the periphery. I just don't think that volume can be built in 10 years.
I've done Q+A sessions with the CEO of Europe's largest renewables firm and he doesn't think the 150GW+ of connections in the UK is going to happen. These companies are still planning new build CCGT's joining the back of the queue for connections because they know a lot of those schemes in front are vapourware or soft.
Soldato
Stumbled across this today which is a nice simple read for why and how the system works how it does.
Soldato
Just renewed my go tariff for end of Sept
9.5p (up from 7.5p) offpeak and 30.1 (down from 40.1) peak
I use very few peak units, apart from peak winter so my worst months bills will drop, but my best months bills will go up a bit.
Just saw the gas price up again, 5.28p today.
9.5p (up from 7.5p) offpeak and 30.1 (down from 40.1) peak
I use very few peak units, apart from peak winter so my worst months bills will drop, but my best months bills will go up a bit.
Just saw the gas price up again, 5.28p today.