Soldato
Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)
- Thread starter DXP55
- Start date
I can't even guess what's going to happen this winter.
I don't think there is or will be enough money given to prevent carnage this winter.
Things that might happen
-huge job losses in high energy and low margin businesses
-huge increase in personal energy debt potentially leading to big supplier collapse
-people out on the streets with no money to heat and feed their family.. Pure desperation
It could be echoed across Europe.
It could be the closest thing to a revolution in modern times.
Don't pay UK is going to become significant soon.
Covid had plenty of free money attached to it. At the moment this hasn't.
But I think this is more damaging as it could go on years. If it does it could be collapse in Europe.
Is it fair to say Europe is suffering the most because we have so little resources.. Or those resources are privately owned?
I don't think there is or will be enough money given to prevent carnage this winter.
Things that might happen
-huge job losses in high energy and low margin businesses
-huge increase in personal energy debt potentially leading to big supplier collapse
-people out on the streets with no money to heat and feed their family.. Pure desperation
It could be echoed across Europe.
It could be the closest thing to a revolution in modern times.
Don't pay UK is going to become significant soon.
Covid had plenty of free money attached to it. At the moment this hasn't.
But I think this is more damaging as it could go on years. If it does it could be collapse in Europe.
Is it fair to say Europe is suffering the most because we have so little resources.. Or those resources are privately owned?
Soldato
For sure it will be worse in Europe. A real risk of not enough gas and generally harsher winters. It will impact individuals everywhere and energy intensive industries like in Germany.
I suspect to get an idea of what the short term future looks like - look back to the oil crunch of the 1970's and the 3 day working week. Also similar to that time, you can add wide spread industrial action, so rubbish piling up in the streets etc etc. And a sprinkle of rioting in cities up and down the country.
Concern I have is how long it could go on. If it was one winter a chunky government bail out is best.
But if the new normal is 2-3k (much lower than now). I see europe slipping into serious decline.
At that level businesses can't operate, too many people have no spending money. Not enough tax to prop up NHS, pensions, welfare etc etc.
Downward spiral with no end.
Soldato
It will plateau and persist at a high price through 2023 at least. Probably 2024 too. They are saying Germany will hit €4700 annual bills in October. We have a high price cap expected then but wow
My guess would be that we will see prices stabilise after a period of adjustment to the supply. A bit like we're seeing the start of with petrol/diesel prices now. How long that takes is anybodies guess, maybe the end of next year (a complete guess). The interim is going to be difficult though. It's worth remembering we have been here before.
But what is this new stable?
If it's 2500 (let's say) it's still unsustainable right? As in it will change the UK making it significantly poorer.
I'd guess there would have to be serious thought out into how to reduce government spending.
End of the day it seems inevitable standard of living is going to crater
Oscillating decline until we hit the cliff edge, I don't think we are far from the cliff edge now. There will be no money for the economy and mass job losses as businesses won't be profitable. Economic collapse is a real threat and we won't have no way back to the current status quo without fusion or some massive nuclear investment but that is years off.
We have wasted years and money chasing renewables, they just don't provide enough cheap power.
Soldato
- Joined
- 23 May 2006
- Posts
- 7,226
renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels. it amazes me that the price of fossil fuels are sky rocketing and yet some still manage to blame renewables ...... crazy!.
if anything the issue is not investing enough and giving NIMBY people too much thought when it came to onshore wind. we are an island with a lot of wind, a huge amount of water, and we even get a fair amount of sun. IF it isn't feasible for the UK to be self sufficient on off/on shore wind, tidal and solar, backed up by nuclear. ....... then the planet is well and truly screwed and it really doesn't matter what prices hit now because in the next 50 years or so it will be like mad Max (or maybe water world)
The reason fossil fuel prices are going up is demand, renewables just don't generate enough power, it is not hard to work that out surely?
We need nuclear power/
Renewable and nuclear. The reason we are in this mess is lack of investment. Fossil fuels are not the answer, what we face right now is nothing compared to a future of climate breakdown. Saying you want fossil fuels is just an emotional reaction to high bills, its not the answer.
They will surely have to put a lot more money into renewables (solar, wind) in the short term as it is quicker to deploy, in order to try to get the price down (heavily government subsidised). Nuclear takes too long unless Rolls Royce play a blinder with the Small Modular Reactors (SMR) but even then I guess it would be 5+ years to actually bring one online from planning to it starting to run?
I think renewables do generate enough energy (https://grid.iamkate.com) but solar and wind are very variable depending on where they are sited.
I don't say that, we need nuclear.
- Nuclear for base load to replace gas
- Renewables to provide the intermittent green energy
The quicker we can ditch gas, the short the pain of high prices
Soldato
Yeah agreed, renewables and nuclear. Fossil fuels could have been a short term backup but sounds like we don't mine coal any more nor have the plants operational.
There is plenty of space for wind turbines in this country or out at sea on our coastlines, and advanced nuclear reactors are clean, safe. We aren't talking 60's concrete jungle technology any more. These modern plants look not much different to a large hospital or big factory.
www.westinghousenuclear.com
And when were the Rolls Royce SMR reactors concieved? We're only hearing about them recently due to the crisis but no doubt they've been on the table for 10 years maybe - lack of foresight we could have been building these already.
There is plenty of space for wind turbines in this country or out at sea on our coastlines, and advanced nuclear reactors are clean, safe. We aren't talking 60's concrete jungle technology any more. These modern plants look not much different to a large hospital or big factory.
AP1000® Pressurized Water Reactor | Westinghouse Nuclear
The Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant is the safest and most reliable plant in the marketplace with distinct advantages over other designs.
www.westinghousenuclear.com
And when were the Rolls Royce SMR reactors concieved? We're only hearing about them recently due to the crisis but no doubt they've been on the table for 10 years maybe - lack of foresight we could have been building these already.
Soldato
Heavily renewable Scandinavian countries have had slightly higher energy prices before all these rises kicked off and now have the lowest. Renewable can create energy independence.
Soldato
According to Google, total UK electricity consumption is 300,000 GWh. That is per year, so that would be 821 GWh per day or 34 GWh per hour (34 GW).
So at 20 GW of production from wind, that is 60% of our total energy needs.
(Correct my maths if its wrong.)
So surely we are close. It won't take much of a push now to get to full self reliance - then why should we be paying international rates.
There is plenty of space left - why isn't the Government just saying to everyone with capital - get on and build these damn things.
if we can go from 8 GW to 20 GW in 3 years, why can't we go to 30 GW, 40 GW in the same timeframe. Just get going! Like when the navvies built the canals.