Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

The current forecast for the April 2023 price cap
At least the temperature should be getting warmer so less gas use required for heating. The Elec standing charge reducing too

https://twitter.com/x/status/1593168635379347456

Holy **** thats going to burn

Im glad by then that our gas usage will be tailing off and solar should be generating well

That will likely coincide with council tax rises for many, so another inflation bump just when the first for many should be subsiding.
In fact thats likely to be more than the inflation impact falling off from a quick calc.

Edit to remove swear word not censored, well at least i consider it a swear word!

 

[delta0]

The current forecast for the April 2023 price cap
At least the temperature should be getting warmer so less gas use required for heating. The Elec standing charge reducing too

https://twitter.com/x/status/1593168635379347456

That’s on the way down from the current uncapped rates I think. Those are around 70-80p at the moment. I’ve noticed some of the EV charger rates have fallen in the past week so seems to have already peaked.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

That’s on the way down from the current uncapped rates I think. Those are around 70-80p at the moment. I’ve noticed some of the EV charger rates have fallen in the past week so seems to have already peaked.

They are, uncapped is around 70-80 for domestic, or would be.
Thats also not far off what they predicted before however.

However you dress it up though thats still 50% for the average based on what we see today.

 

[delta0]

They are, uncapped is around 70-80 for domestic, or would be.
Thats also not far off what they predicted before however.

However you dress it up though thats still 50% for the average based on what we see today.

Yes that’s still a lot higher than the current capped rate. At least it appears the prices have already peaked. Anyone on fixes into late next year could see even lower rates than the April forecast. I think the Ukraine war ending (if it does) is going to accelerate that downward trend as well.

 

[jpaul]

Exactly this, it is isn't the tenants causing it. The housing stock is not looked after by the companies like this and do minimal maintenance and they are all well below par.

agree some are, but the yesterdays case, with many identical properties, none of whom highlighted as also impacted,
pictures of radiators with damp immediately behind top of radiator (drying clothes) , kitchen ceiling too, if you boil stuff that steam goes somewhere.

-


so the 3100 cap would still represent an increase for typical use in April despite weather improvement 202->257

 

[Curlyriff]

agree some are, but the yesterdays case, with many identical properties, none of whom highlighted as also impacted,
pictures of radiators with damp immediately behind top of radiator (drying clothes) , kitchen ceiling too, if you boil stuff that steam goes somewhere.

I completely understand that but a lot of places don't have room for tumble dryer or outside space for summer drying either. Yes some education is needed but having done thousands of surveys over the years for properties it is about 90% landlord to 10% tenant in cases of damp because of inadequate maintenance provided etc.

Also in term of your second part of post on the topic I still think the £3100 is understated, most other sources of info etc are putting it much higher at £3700 ish. So effectively a 48% increase on whatever you are paying now not including the £400 rebate. For instance mine would go from about £75 to about £112 a month then at that.

To quickly give some numbers to see how those two caps could be different in what your bills would be

Current Cost £2500 (not including rebate) - Future Cost £3700 cap (48% increase)

£100 - £148
£150 - £222
£200 - £296
£250 - £370

Current Cost £2500 (not including rebate) - Future Cost £3100 cap (24% increase)

£100 - £124
£150 - £186
£200 - £248
£250 - £310

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Yes that’s still a lot higher than the current capped rate. At least it appears the prices have already peaked. Anyone on fixes into late next year could see even lower rates than the April forecast. I think the Ukraine war ending (if it does) is going to accelerate that downward trend as well.

Hmm the Ukraine war is interesting. I linked a vid from warographics in the Ukraine thread last night. The prediction is that the gas issue will be worse next winter not this. Since this winter we (europe) already had quite high stocks and the flow from Russia was still functioning.
If the gas supply is an issue you know what the impact on prices is going to be!

Thats going to be different next winter even if Ukraine war is fixed seems to be the assumption lack of supply to build the buffer needed.
Well worth a watch if you have 20 minutes.

 

[cu3ed]

Seen this offer come to us with £100 Credit if we swap over, anyone see any potential traps/ problems with it?

 

[squerble]

Energy bills to rise to £3,000 a year from April

Help has been extended, but it's now less generous, meaning a typical household will pay more.

www.bbc.co.uk

Energy prices up to £3,000 from April. Better enjoy what little heating you can afford right now, as you won't be able to afford it next winter.

 

[Curlyriff]

Energy bills to rise to £3,000 a year from April

Help has been extended, but it's now less generous, meaning a typical household will pay more.

www.bbc.co.uk

Energy prices up to £3,000 from April. Better enjoy what little heating you can afford right now, as you won't be able to afford it next winter.

So 20% increase on whatever your bills are now ignoring the £400 rebate then. Not as bad as I thought it was going to be but still not great

 

[the shadow]

Someone ere ?

Drastic measures one family is taking to combat soaring cost of living

Chavdar Todorov, 53, also picked up multiple £8.48 head torches, and he, his wife and two children now use them to get around the house after dark.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Curlyriff]

Someone ere ?

Drastic measures one family is taking to combat soaring cost of living

Chavdar Todorov, 53, also picked up multiple £8.48 head torches, and he, his wife and two children now use them to get around the house after dark.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Most of us no? I mean I only use my tablet to watch YT/Netflix etc on now and charge it at work. TV stays off completely because of costs etc. Heating never on. Lights basically never on, just use phone torch for light and charge that at office too.

 

[the shadow]

So 20% increase on whatever your bills are now ignoring the £400 rebate then. Not as bad as I thought it was going to be but still not great

It will go back down after just live like Vin

 

[mikeo]

Sorry if there is an obvious answer.

But the price rises next April... are these only going to be fixed for another 3 months?
(IE. we will potentially have another price rise coming July 2023)
If so, then I can't help but think there will soon be HUGE numbers (me probably included) that can't afford to pay!

 

[delta0]

Hmm the Ukraine war is interesting. I linked a vid from warographics in the Ukraine thread last night. The prediction is that the gas issue will be worse next winter not this. Since this winter we (europe) already had quite high stocks and the flow from Russia was still functioning.
If the gas supply is an issue you know what the impact on prices is going to be!

Thats going to be different next winter even if Ukraine war is fixed seems to be the assumption lack of supply to build the buffer needed.
Well worth a watch if you have 20 minutes.

We stopped buying Russian gas and had to fill up from other sources. Plus we will have a year to get more gas ready for next winter. I would expect things to be much better next winter. If the war ends then it will be even better than expected.

 

[squerble]

Someone ere ?

Drastic measures one family is taking to combat soaring cost of living

Chavdar Todorov, 53, also picked up multiple £8.48 head torches, and he, his wife and two children now use them to get around the house after dark.

www.dailymail.co.uk

£8.48 spend on electricity at 34p/kWh is 24.94kWh. With that, you can run four 10W bulbs for just about 625 hours. Use four small 4W lamp bulbs instead and it's over 1500 hours. And they bought "multiple".

People are ******* morons.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

We stopped buying Russian gas and had to fill up from other sources. Plus we will have a year to get more gas ready for next winter. I would expect things to be much better next winter. If the war ends then it will be even better than expected.

We did but thats somewhat irrelevant.

The article, you really should watch it if your going to comment, basically says what I said.
Which is the opposite to the conclusion your drawing, they say this winter should be just about fine, next however likely not. They give 3 scenarios...

There is a lack of supply without Russia, we have time to fill the tanks yes, but there isn't likely enough capacity to do so. US is already next max export capacity with no new online in a timescale that matters.
The main risk however is China.

 

[delta0]

We did but thats somewhat irrelevant.

The article, you really should watch it if your going to comment, basically says what I said.
Which is the opposite to the conclusion your drawing, they say this winter should be just about fine, next however likely not. They give 3 scenarios...

There is a lack of supply without Russia, we have time to fill the tanks yes, but there isn't likely enough capacity to do so. US is already next max export capacity with no new online in a timescale that matters.
The main risk however is China.

I think that is incredibly unlikely. As I pointed out the peak electricity price seems to have already passed a few weeks ago and we seem to be on a downward direction. Just look at gas prices they are hugely down from where they were. We aren’t going to be in anywhere near as urgent situation as we are now. There would be no logic to gas prices being higher next year. The supply situation was at its lowest for this winter so it’s not likely to be lower. Ukraine is also possibly going to be finished by then and so that will further depress prices. There is no situation bar a large scale war that will start destroying all gas supplies that would cause prices to rise.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I think that is incredibly unlikely. As I pointed out the peak electricity price seems to have already passed a few weeks ago and we seem to be on a downward direction. Just look at gas prices they are hugely down from where they were. We aren’t going to be in anywhere near as urgent situation as we are now. There would be no logic to gas prices being higher next year. The supply situation was at its lowest for this winter so it’s not likely to be lower. Ukraine is also possibly going to be finished by then and so that will further depress prices. There is no situation bar a large scale war that will start destroying all gas supplies that would cause prices to rise.

Again its all explained.

The gas price is low because current storage is high which leads them to believe that we will make it through the winter ok, with consumption down ONLY 15%

The next winter will not have the tanks basically filled via Russia and the LNG being used as a top up.

I forget the exact numbers now, but NS 1&2 were something like 3x the supply capabilty of all the LNG ships.

 

[jpaul]

(USA) LNG gas imports, can make a significant contribution to build storage for 2023 winter, next summer

moreover, thanks, so, a more typical 0.15mscm lng tanker, scaling volume by 15, could represent 2.25mscm , more than a days UK consumption
now looking some links suggest volume might be scaled by 600 ?

To quickly give some numbers to see how those two caps could be different in what your bills would be

yes - the medium term question, I think, most want answered, is will the april energy price increase, loss of £69, be offset by reduced usage