EV general discussion

[Nasher]

Or instead of making it up you could just read the actual facts.

https://www.whatcar.com/advice/owning/are-electric-cars-more-expensive-to-insure/n18043

It's fact because whatcar says? Ok.

I've actually had (twice) newish cars which started cheap and crept up. With the insurer stating that statistics were the reason...

They won't drop cheaper than the petrol equivalent, because they cost much more to buy and are much more expensive to repair. Along with a shortage of garages which will repair them.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Usually it's the other way round. They start cheap until statistics start rolling in. That's why quite rare cars are cheap to insure.

Thatcham conducts tests to establish insurance groups, Tesla cooling systems are quite vulnerable for the 15kph bumper test: and similar for GDV in Germany where a real life index is applied based on repair cost trends. Part delays and availability will hurt Tesla in that respect.

Keep guessing kid.

 

[HEADRAT]

So one thing has stuck me, how much CO2 (+ other greenhouse gases/damage to the environment) is going to be released in building each of these electric vehicles. Surely we should be looking at "retrofitting" electric motors to existing cars! How can it be "green" to build a whole new car, with all the metals/plastics/machining/electric etc. that goes into building a new vehicle?

Has anybody in the done any kinda of calculation in relation to the "green payback period" for an electric car vs just keeping a diesel/petrol car on the road!

 

[Jez]

Thatcham conducts tests to establish insurance groups, Tesla cooling systems are quite vulnerable for the 15kph bumper test: and similar for GDV in Germany where a real life index is applied based on repair cost trends. Part delays and availability will hurt Tesla in that respect.

Keep guessing kid.

Parts availability also has a massive knock on with regard to total cost to a claim i guess, if i buy a Model S i will damn well expect an equivalent as a hire car, for as long as a repair may take, for example. I need to run all of the numbers properly against another diesel at some point.

 

[Jez]

Has anybody in the done any kinda of calculation in relation to the "green payback period" for an electric car vs just keeping a diesel/petrol car on the road!

Not totally fair is it? People buy cars when they need them, others will buy the used ones and run them until EOL anyway?

 

[HEADRAT]

Yeah I get ya but the Government has now set an "end date" for diesel/petrol cars so we now have an "enforced" date, any idea what will happen with second hand sales of diesel/petrol cars, will they still be allowed?

Also I presume at some point there will be an EV tax in order to replace fuel duty?

 

[b0rn2sk8]

So one thing has stuck me, how much CO2 (+ other greenhouse gases/damage to the environment) is going to be released in building each of these electric vehicles. Surely we should be looking at "retrofitting" electric motors to existing cars! How can it be "green" to build a whole new car, with all the metals/plastics/machining/electric etc. that goes into building a new vehicle?

Has anybody in the done any kinda of calculation in relation to the "green payback period" for an electric car vs just keeping a diesel/petrol car on the road!

I don't see how this is any different to buying a new car regardless of power train. It's always 'greener' to keep an existing car on the road than it is manufacturing a new one. The issue is EV's are not just about CO2 there are considerable other benefits which are grossly overlooked to things like air quality by moving emissions to a huge chimney stack in the countryside and away from urban streets where people live.

The CO2 needed to build an EV is higher than an ICE but it isn't that much higher. But the tailpipe emissions and total life emissions are far lower for an EV. Also when an EV comes to the end of its life there is still a considerable amount of value in the battery pack which can have a second life, where as an ICE car is typically junk. While in an ideal world you would retrofit an old body with a new power train, the reality is that its just far to much work and the performance would be garbage because they are not designed to take it. Modern cars are so integrated electronically.

A lot of EV conversions are frankly dangerous because the battery packs are not engineered with accident safety in mind and often end up in places that get crushed in a typical collision (under the bonnet and in the boot). Most of them are put together by a man in a barn and don't comply with proper modern safety standards. I'm not talking about classics either some of the conversions you see on YouTube make me shudder and I wouldn't touch one with a barge pole. Almost all of them have their active safety features disabled (airbags etc.) because they are integrated to the ECU of the car. Things like AC, power steering, heating etc often also need to be reworked if its its possible to get them working at all.

Yeah I get ya but the Government has now set an "end date" for diesel/petrol cars so we now have an "enforced" date, any idea what will happen with second hand sales of diesel/petrol cars?

There is no enforced date for existing cars, its only the sale of new ones so that's nonsense. You can drive an ICE for as long as you like, just expect them to naturally disappear through attrition 5 years after the date has passed and new sales start to be taxed off the road in the run up.

 

[Jez]

Yeah I get ya but the Government has now set an "end date" for diesel/petrol cars so we now have an "enforced" date, any idea what will happen with second hand sales of diesel/petrol cars, will they still be allowed?

Also I presume at some point there will be an EV tax in order to replace fuel duty?

Used cars are not affected at all, that is a date for sale of brand new ones. ICE cars will not generally be EOL until over 10 years later on average, with many lasting loads longer (we only recently disposed of a vectra from 2002 for example, what’s that, near 18 years before it was truly EOL).

An EV tax is something which is rather concerning and obviously will have to happen at some point. There is a big debate over how it would be implemented though, it isn’t clear how it will work at all...

 

[Nasher]

The main reason we don't see many really old cars around now is most rusted way. But in the 00s we started to see less exotic stuff being made from aluminium and way better rust protection on steel.

 

[HEADRAT]

An EV tax is something which is rather concerning and obviously will have to happen at some point. There is a big debate over how it would be implemented though, it isn’t clear how it will work at all...

Indeed, don’t the Government raise £30 billion in Road Tax, can’t imagine they’re going to let that slide for long

 

[balky12]

So one thing has stuck me, how much CO2 (+ other greenhouse gases/damage to the environment) is going to be released in building each of these electric vehicles. Surely we should be looking at "retrofitting" electric motors to existing cars! How can it be "green" to build a whole new car, with all the metals/plastics/machining/electric etc. that goes into building a new vehicle?

Has anybody in the done any kinda of calculation in relation to the "green payback period" for an electric car vs just keeping a diesel/petrol car on the road!

Interesting article in the Sunday Times about this. Apparently the e-golf doesn't become pay itself back until 80,000 miles.

Also touched on the road tax issue.

That 12x more chargers are needed at a minimum with at least 10x more Hinkley Point Cs to keep up with the new demand, especially if we switch from fossil fuels.

Basically it concluded that the greenest thing you could do it keep hold of your current car and run it into the ground.

 

[Nasher]

Is that just fuels costs, or does it include depreciation etc as well?

 

[Fusion]

Basically it concluded that the greenest thing you could do it keep hold of your current car and run it into the ground.

Which would have massive knock-on effects for all elements of the vehicle supply chain, worldwide! Already, manufacturing output dropped in Q4 of 2019 in the UK.

 

[Nasher]

Surely the reduced manufacturing is also a good thing though?

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Interesting article in the Sunday Times about this. Apparently the e-golf doesn't become pay itself back until 80,000 miles.

Also touched on the road tax issue.

That 12x more chargers are needed at a minimum with at least 10x more Hinkley Point Cs to keep up with the new demand, especially if we switch from fossil fuels.

Basically it concluded that the greenest thing you could do it keep hold of your current car and run it into the ground.

Those articles are all highly subjective, based on assumptions which don’t really stack up and totally dependent on where you start measuring the CO2 from, particularly with the fuel. Does it include all the energy needed to extract and refine or just from the pump? Both would produce very different results.

What fuel mix was used to measure the EVs ongoing emissions, is it the UK average or the overnight mix when the car is generally charged which tends to be far greener because it’s dominated by nuclear and wind.

What’s the 10x new Hinckley’s based on? Average demand, peek demand total capacity? It’s also a very different figure to what national grid say, I know who I’m more inclined to believe.

 

[McPhee]

Interesting article in the Sunday Times about this. Apparently the e-golf doesn't become pay itself back until 80,000 miles.

I can't read the article as it's behind a paywall.

But... life cycle emissions analysis are problematic. A car is a very complex product, both in terms of understanding every aspect of its manufacture, and in terms of understanding precisely how "A. Driver" will use the car. As a result, there is no absolute break-even number.

If you're interested in why it's difficult, read "I, Pencil" by Leonard E. Read. How complicated can a simple pencil be?

All life cycle analyses are flawed. They're a collection of simplifications and assumptions, hence the great variance from one study to another. When these studies trickle through to articles in the mainstream media, they tend to be abused to suit a narrative one way or another. The Carbon Brief article which was linked to a couple of pages back illustrates the problem quite well; they have multiple graphs which show a variation in carbon emissions over 150,000km depending on how the factories which build the cars and batteries are powered. And that's with consistent assumptions (i.e. all from the same study). Any time you see one of these analyses, look to see where the prospective car was built, and its battery. Look to see what fuel mix was powering the factory. And then where the car is "driven". These things have the greatest effect on lifetime carbon emissions.

Not that I'm knocking these analyses. It's important to have an idea as to how much CO2 a given product's manufacturing and use creates. But it's important to keep in mind what they are; estimates based on a given set of criteria.

 

[Joe T]

Slightly off topic vs the recent discussions, but I thought this was interesting.

Latest stats from Carbon Brief:

Source: https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1225828540110626816?s=20

"We've updated our @CarbonBrief analysis of the climate impacts of electric vehicles in light of rapidly falling carbon intensity of electricity in countries like the UK and a large revision downward of battery manufacturing emissions by IVL

Our previous version of the article used the 2017 IVL review of battery manufacturing emissions, which estimated them at 150-200 kg/kWh battery capacity. The 2019 revision uses data from commercial scale manufacturing plants and find only 61-106 kg/kWh (upper bound of 146)

More broadly, recent studies of lifecycle battery emissions all suggest around 100 kg/kWh or below, though there are still differences based on how electricity used in manufacturing is produced. If 100% renewables are used, this number drops as low as 60 kg/kWh"

Additional comment from Colin Mckerracher (worth a follow on Twitter) "If you have a really big battery pack, the CO2 improvement over a hybrid gets marginal in some countries. But then there's usually a segment comparison error - not a lot of people buy a Taycan instead of a Prius"

 

[jpaul]

the FT comment

Nick Rufford
Sunday February 09 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
...
Even the latest electric cars, which are purpose-designed to be electric, rather than adapted from a combustion-powered vehicles, as with the Volkswagen e-Golf, can’t avoid the impact of battery manufacturing. VW says making the battery system for its new ID.3 accounts for 43% of its lifetime emissions, compared with just under 5% for its electric motor. VW estimates that it would take almost 77,000 miles of motoring before an electric Golf would have less impact than a diesel-powered Golf.
...
(forgotten this) that a grant of up to £3,500 towards the cost of buying an electric car will not be available for much longer. It expires in less than 60 days

... so, a VW themselves, quote

most articles, i've read are loosely in agreement about bev battery manufacture co2 payback time, and honest in acknowledging assumptions.

vw elaborate - https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/new...volkswagen-makes-the-id-3-carbon-neutral.html

 

[McPhee]

the FT comment

... so, a VW themselves, quote

most articles, i've read are loosely in agreement about bev battery manufacture co2 payback time, and honest in acknowledging assumptions.

vw elaborate - https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/new...volkswagen-makes-the-id-3-carbon-neutral.html

Yet the link you posted gives different figures.

The graph toward the bottom of that VW link compares the eGolf to "a diesel" and finds:

• Manufacturing the eGolf produces 11.4 tonnes of CO2, while manufacturing the Diesel produces 5.8 tonnes of CO2 (over 200,000 miles).
• The "well to wheel" emissions of "a Diesel" are 151g CO2/km.
• The overall equivalent "well to wheel" figure for the eGolf varies greatly be energy source.

Picking the EU average energy mix:

The difference in CO2 from production is 11.4-5.8 = 5.6 tonnes = 5,600,000g (or [57g-29g]×200,000km life cycle used).
The difference in "well to wheel" emissions is 151g-62g = 89g.
The break even point happens at 5,600,000g ÷ 89g per km = 62,921km, or around 39,000 miles.

The UK's electricity mix is cleaner than the EU average, so the break-even point here will be lower.

Those numbers are quite low compared to many studies. But then, VW are claiming that both the batteries and the cars are produced in factories powered by renewables. If that's the case, then B/E at 77,000 miles seems unlikely.

Though they don't actually detail what they're including. End of life disposal/recycling? Maintenance and repairs? Tyre wear (which tends to count against EVs)? And so on. This is what I meant by the number of variables which may, or may not, be included.

 

[Fusion]

Talk of the combustion engine ban maybe moving forward to 2032.