Gary the Pub's "grid" is nice in theory, but it also doesn't take into account improving track conditions e.g. Rosberg did his time on the last day when there was more rubber down.
IT was damp and colder on the Saturday morning after two days of poor weather and humidity was like 55-80% throughout saturday, Sunday started off dry, stayed dry and was low humidity all day and less windy so significantly better conditions.
If Hamilton could do a 1:20.2 with 6 laps of fuel on board one in 10 times, but could hit a 1:20.6 7 out of 10 times, which is better for comparing setups? The simple fact that Hamilton hit within 1:20.5 to 1:20.9 each time suggests what he was aiming for. It wasn't a one lap super run and he was driving within himself for a useful comparison of the setups. Massa would have been the same.
I think you can suggest that Ferrari and Merc were on the same program and thus Massa/Hamilton's times and Rosberg/alonso's times were comparable.
Mclaren and Red bull absolutely no one knows, guessing how much fuel they had on board based on your hopes is insane. Every person I've seen try to create a list has made so many assumptions based on nothing its hilarious.
Last year Webber and Vettel were amongst the slowest drivers at Barca, but were also poor at the race, both failing to even beat Webbers time from testing at Barca, Webber not making it into Q3 and Vettel not bothering to set a time. There was exactly no sign at all that they ran slow at Barca and gained massively for the actual race, no indication of that at all, they weren't any faster at all.
Anderson specifically says he's guessed the fuel load based on the difference between testing times and those at Melbourne... completely different conditions, different track, more to the point Webber was 6/10ths down in testing on the fastest time, and 7/10th's down in Melbourne in Q3, and Vettel was behind Webber both times.
I think Red Bull weren't at their best, were playing with various parts on the final day where Ferrari/Merc used their Saturday drivers to find the optimum setups, and Sunday to really push the car. Vettel can go faster, no doubt, but that car wasn't impressive last year in preseason or in qualifying, there was no massive gain in time, and no massive gain in time on fastest lap in Melbourne compared to the fastest guys either. This high fuel load crap has been made up out of nothing.
The big comparison that matters is race pace, and this is once again where Merc seemed stronger than anyone else. Vettel didn't qualify well in multiple early races, yet still had strong results for where he started, the car was better in long pace than anyone else, but didn't have ultimate speed at most tracks early in the season, and with Barca testing replicating last season, thats what I expect this year as well.
Outside of Anderson and a few others who seem to listen to him, there isn't any timing data that suggests Red Bull gained from preseason testing to Melbourne, or by Barca, he claims they NEVER do glory runs, yet Webbers pace at Barca last year was faster than he went in qualifying, which somehow proves that Red Bull were running seconds of extra fuel in preseason... because they were slower in Barcelona? Vettel's times improved, because he was WAY behind Webber at points, bad lap, different program, worse conditions, who knows, they didn't improve on their fastest lap from preseason, therefore the suggestion they don't run low fuel, and improved dramatically is completely false.
Don't get me wrong they COULD have had higher fuel, but guessing this based of data from last year is insane, because the car was simply not faster in the season compared to testing, unless he's suggesting they ran high fuel in qualifying at Barcelona, Anderson is talking out of his ass.