My opinion is that Ferrari and McLaren hit the track running in Barcelona - with seemingly a good baseline from the off, and might have been outright quickest at that stage, but I can't help but feel Red Bull's and Mercedes' upgrades have seen them leap-frog since. That compounded with a terrible test for McLaren in Bahrain.
I think the general consensus is Red Bull look quickest at this stage, with them getting some good upgrades on and them working straight away. Ferrari haven't shown any real upgrades, but look to be in the ball park, fighting for podiums. McLaren have probably dropped back to fourth. Mercedes looked truly dreadful early on at Bahrain, but the last couple of days looked far better - whether you believe their claims that they won't be challenging for wins in the first few races is up to you (they say similar most years) but I'd be staggered if they aren't at least fighting for the titles by mid-season. Frankly I think they'll be challenging for pole in Q3 next weekend.
From a promising start McLaren are now the big unknown. The brake cooling problems in Bahrain weren't just an issue in limiting the number of laps, but it was worrying that such a problem existed in the first place - it's one of those things that you should be able to simulate relatively easily in CFD and the wind-tunnel (once they had confirmed correlation in Barcelona), so the fact they made it to Bahrain and couldn't rectify it at all is a concern going forward. The base of the car seems solid, but I don't think they'll be fighting for wins in normal races. I wouldn't put a pole-challenging performance beyond them (like last year), but I can't see them being that close regularly. Losing half the driver's feedback would have been a big blow too, and Ricciardo will already be on the back foot after a difficult first season - hopefully the relative lack of running in Bahrain doesn't cost him too much.
Haas seem to have a decent car, but remember their eye-catching times were set in cooler conditions, so I don't think they're about to jump half the field. Williams seem too to have a good car, but the utterly needless brake fire was a big set back. Alfa and Alpha both look decent, but I doubt Alpha will be as close to the front as they (well Gasly) were last season - Alfa need to sort their reliability out too.
Alpine - oh dear. To set a target of fifth is dreadful and rather telling. They had zero distractions and as many resources to put into the team as they wanted (pre-budget cap) as well as getting a head-start on the regulations, yet if anything they look further away from the other manufacturer teams than they were at the tail-end of 2021.
Much of the talk of Aston Martin's post-launch feeling was that they were already planning a 'B' spec car. That talk has fizzled away since Barcelona and they again look decent, but nothing special - another let down after committing time and money early on? Remember they claimed the reason for the Pink Mercedes was so they could concentrate on the 2022 regulations from an very early stage. They're probably somewhere towards the front of the midfield, around where Alpine will probably settle in after a few races.
I don't think anyone looks terrible - some better than others and some a little way off where they'd hoped, but I don't think anyone has fluffed their lines. It's good to see so many different concepts working, even if one is likely to emerge as the best path for coming years.
