The thing at the back of my mind is, I always feel like someone who pushes the boundaries further, has more teething issues but something fundamentally better when you get through those issues.
This is clearly not always true(Mclaren
), it could be that when they work the kinks out of the Renault cars, they are slow as hell. But Renault powered cars have been doing very well recently.
Lotus may have updates for the next test, but so will everyone else. Depending on how testing goes in the next 2 days, Lotus may be spending the next couple weeks working in entirely the wrong direction while say Mclaren/Merc find parts that just don't work.
ultimately new bits aren't always good, testing them and seeing if you are on the right track or not is as important and Lotus will be at a monumental disadvantage by missing an entire test. Some did last year, but those were basically the old cars with tweaks, not entirely new cars.
I hope we see some Renault cars get a good number of laps in the next couple days and some semi decent performance numbers to see how far they progress in between now and the next test.
Also worth noting that while the Merc appears somewhat reliable, we don't know how fast they are. Hamilton was supposedly not pushing the car hard, which is unsurprising. The cars may be 5 seconds faster and at high turbo/kers revs the engines all blow up. Till we get an idea they are pushing hard I wouldn't count on reliability being good. Good early signs but, when crap fails, it's usually when it's being pushed at 95%+ and at it's highest temps.