Poll: General election voting intentions poll

[Zethor]

Surely a consultant surgeon on the ground seeing it every day is far more believable than a website that doesn't prove anything whatsoever as there is no data that is irrefutable.
The Govt. deliberately doesn't keep data for obvious reasons because it's embarrassing.

There are no accurate stats that can be relied upon but people who are seeing it every day are far more likely to have their finger on the pulse.

That website you keep going on about has estimates no more, It in no way can be deemed accurate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_skepticism

A skeptic is one who prefers beliefs and conclusions that are reliable and valid to ones that are comforting or convenient, and therefore rigorously and openly applies the methods of science and reason to all empirical claims, especially their own. A skeptic provisionally proportions acceptance of any claim to valid logic and a fair and thorough assessment of available evidence and studies the pitfalls of human reason and the mechanisms of deception so as to avoid being deceived by others or themselves. Skepticism values method over any particular conclusion.

 

[Schlong&Stable]

Interesting stats on GDP per head

GDP per capita (current USD) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United States of America 46,760 45,305 46,612 48,112 49,641
United Kingdom 43,147 35,331 36,238 38,974 39,090

Source:Helgi Library,[26] World Bank

So approx 20% fall back in 2009 then a recovery of just over 10%, where as US had a much smaller fall but a similar recovery

Above was ripped from wikipedia so I am assuming its ok, its got source

It is far better to use PPP in this context. On that basis, we have recovered beyond pre-crisis levels.

 

[logicfry]

no abstain option in the poll?

anyone that votes green is mad as they will ruin your area. please don't do it to yourself.
the main parties are not going in a direction or even trying to, that I'm willing to vote for.
ukip et al are going to be a disaster too.

there really isn't anyone, who won't lose their deposit, that is worth voting for. so what's the point this time round? I feel more strongly about starting a party than voting for any of the current parties.
protest voting on an indy' candidate may feel like it's sending a message but it's not, which ever larger party gets in will ignore that and carry on regardless.

really feeling like it's not worth the effort to get out of bet for this election, might just re-emergrate to sunnier shores

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

It is far better to use PPP in this context. On that basis, we have recovered beyond pre-crisis levels.

PPP being? (some production measure i assume?)

I was just sticking to the same measure generally used and the one people want to use to say GDP wasn't hit that hard by Labour and the Tories haven't triggered a recovery based on.

Looks like a far bigger hit to GDP than people want to admit back in 2009 and since 2010 looks like a recovery to me.

 

[D.P.]

Interesting poll results.

Is this them demographic of Ocuk? or a true reflection of the general public

It has no reflection on the general public at all.

Latest average polls will put labour at about 33%, Tories at 32%, UKIP at 14% and LD and greens at 7% each.

OCUK is a renowned right wing forum and these polls just highlight how far right they are. I actually take some comfort in the fact that despite being far right support for UKIP is only marginally higher, this would be a good indicator that they won't do as well as some of them would like to make out.

 

[John40]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_skepticism

A skeptic is one who prefers beliefs and conclusions that are reliable and valid to ones that are comforting or convenient, and therefore rigorously and openly applies the methods of science and reason to all empirical claims, especially their own. A skeptic provisionally proportions acceptance of any claim to valid logic and a fair and thorough assessment of available evidence and studies the pitfalls of human reason and the mechanisms of deception so as to avoid being deceived by others or themselves. Skepticism values method over any particular conclusion.

Trying to look clever aren't you so lets see your irrefutable evidence that the consultant is a liar which is what you're implying.

 

[Westyfield2]

Anyone seen the Rotherham news?

1400 children are abused, but for political correctness it all gets hushed up. Farage turns us today and protesting on the street OUTRAGE!
Priorities?

 

[scorza]

PPP being? (some production measure i assume?)

Purchasing Power Parity

Anyone seen the Rotherham news?

1400 children are abused, but for political correctness it all gets hushed up. Farage turns us today and protesting on the street OUTRAGE!
Priorities?

Yup, and they can't say they didn't know because Jack Straw mentioned the problem of predominately Asian gangs abusing and treating young white girls as "easy meat" some year ago. Of course he was severely criticised for his comments.

 

[Mr Jack]

Surely a consultant surgeon on the ground seeing it every day is far more believable than a website that doesn't prove anything whatsoever as there is no data that is irrefutable.

Well, let's assume - for the sake of argument - that the following are true:

1. The surgeon said what the paper reports him as saying
2. The surgeon is accurately reporting the comments of the junior consultant
3. The reporter has not made special efforts to track down a surgeon that will say what they want in pursuit of their agenda
4. The surgeon is honest
5. The surgeon is not misrepresenting matters as a result of some form of cognitive bias

Then it still wouldn't be a sound means of determining the impact on the NHS because (a) it at most tells us about a single hospital rather than the NHS, (b) it doesn't give any solid figures anyway.

That website you keep going on about has estimates no more, It in no way can be deemed accurate.

It's not the website, it's the source used: which is a fact based estimate.

 

[robgmun]

Anyone seen the Rotherham news?

1400 children are abused, but for political correctness it all gets hushed up. Farage turns us today and protesting on the street OUTRAGE!
Priorities?

Absolutely disgusting. They should hang thier heads in shame.

 

[chief barker]

Absolutely disgusting. They should hang

 

[John40]

It's not the website, it's the source used: which is a fact based estimate.

A fact based estimate - brilliant - guess work then.

 

[delta0]

It has no reflection on the general public at all.

Latest average polls will put labour at about 33%, Tories at 32%, UKIP at 14% and LD and greens at 7% each.

OCUK is a renowned right wing forum and these polls just highlight how far right they are. I actually take some comfort in the fact that despite being far right support for UKIP is only marginally higher, this would be a good indicator that they won't do as well as some of them would like to make out.

The Americans laugh at our definition of far right. None of the main parties would be remotely central never mind right in the US. The democrats are further right than our main three.

 

[nick.lidgett]

Labour say they are not aiming to pay down the entire deficit, they say, they will protect spending on roads, hospitals, schools etc etc.

Where as the conservatives say they ARE aiming to pay down the entire deficit and still protect roads, hospitals, schools etc etc so that is a massive difference between the two parties.

Labour say the Conservatives are being too ambitious but I am going to vote Conservative and give them a run at it.

Also I just can not take Ed Miliband seriously enough to believe he can represent us efficiently enough on the world stage. Not just that but Ed balls who was a fundamental help to Gordon Brown when he was Chancellor does not give me much faith in his plan for the future of or economy.

 

[scorza]

Labour say they are not aiming to pay down the entire deficit, they say, they will protect spending on roads, hospitals, schools etc etc.

Where as the conservatives say they ARE aiming to pay down the entire deficit and still protect roads, hospitals, schools etc etc so that is a massive difference between the two parties.

Labour say the Conservatives are being too ambitious but I am going to vote Conservative and give them a run at it.

Also I just can not take Ed Miliband seriously enough to believe he can represent us efficiently enough on the world stage. Not just that but Ed balls who was a fundamental help to Gordon Brown when he was Chancellor does not give me much faith in his plan for the future of or economy.

Didn't the Conservatives say they were going to pay down the deficit by 2015 i.e. now? The greatest trick George Osborne has pulled is to convince people that he's good at running the economy when all the evidence points to the contrary.

 

[Mr Jack]

A fact based estimate - brilliant - guess work then.

No, it's an estimate. An estimate is not a guess.

Seriously, this is sub-GCSE level knowledge.

 

[nick.lidgett]

Didn't the Conservatives say they were going to pay down the deficit by 2015 i.e. now? The greatest trick George Osborne has pulled is to convince people that he's good at running the economy when all the evidence points to the contrary.

I 100% agree with you, they under estimated the deficit situation when they said they would have it paid off by 2015, I cant argue that its fact but things crop up during a job that cant be foreseen and throw the schedule off, or the budget out, or both.

However I dont believe that is a strong enough reason for me, personally to swing into the labour camp.

 

[RDM]

It has no reflection on the general public at all.

Latest average polls will put labour at about 33%, Tories at 32%, UKIP at 14% and LD and greens at 7% each.

OCUK is a renowned right wing forum and these polls just highlight how far right they are. I actually take some comfort in the fact that despite being far right support for UKIP is only marginally higher, this would be a good indicator that they won't do as well as some of them would like to make out.

There is another possibility, the forum isn't quite as right wing as you think it is?

 

[John40]

No, it's an estimate. An estimate is not a guess.

An estimate is also not a fact and could be miles out.

 

[scorza]

I 100% agree with you, they under estimated the deficit situation when they said they would have it paid off by 2015, I cant argue that its fact but things crop up during a job that cant be foreseen and throw the schedule off, or the budget out, or both.

However I dont believe that is a strong enough reason for me, personally to swing into the labour camp.

I 100% agree with you and am not bothering trying to convince anyone to vote Labour until they decide what they stand for - social justice or multi-culturalism because I think the two are mutually exclusive right now. Given my half-hearted support for UKIP at the moment I think my fundamental position is Anyone But the Tories