Poll: General election voting intentions poll

[McPhee]

Election polling is essentially an advert for the polling companies. They don't directly make much money off election polling, but making accurate predictions is a great way to promote the business. It is in their interests to make the polls as accurate as they can. It is not in their interests to misrepresent the figures so it looks like the result will be wildly different from the truth.

 

[elmarko]

Tell me, robgmum, what statistical training or experience do you have that means that we should consider your view on this more reliable than that of the professional pollsters who've collected this data?

As somebody who works in statistics I do find it funny when people assume that a sample of X isn't likely to be representative of a larger population (when only a small number of variables exist, which in the case of voting intention is true).

Looking at which has not been weighted is meaningless, as we already know that certain 'types' of people (above the age of 50 for example) are far more likely to response to telephone questionnaires or respond to mail.

If you had a sample with 10,000 people, 50% of which were over 70 - you would boost the other age bands by the known populations of each age band to create a balanced data set.

 

[Dolph]

If one ignores the fact that houses will actually be sold and not given away for free. 2.7bn is plenty of initial capital to start building a lot of houses.


Under the Green manifesto people may get 72 a week but they won't be getting welfare, child tax credits, unemployment benefits, housing benfits, job seekers allowance, or pension to the same degree as is now. Give people a living wage right off the door and then you can do away with all of the complexity and overhead of state handouts Ina piecemeal fashion, improving efficiency and reducing taxation requirments.

It is little more than a form of negative income tax which has lots of advocates, even from the far right.

As someone who proposes a negative income tax as a citizen's income, I really don't think the greens have put much thought into their implementation. The income is too low to consider doing away with other benefits, and without scrapping the other benefits and having a clear discussion about costs, provisions and so on, the negative income tax is not workable.

 

[platypus]

Do you believe the media is completely biased free?

No of course I don't. It doesn't make me scared to admit who I will likely vote for.

 

[scorza]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174

Good to see David Cameron's pledge to reduce annual UK net immigration to the "tens of thousands" has been achieved - thirty tens of thousands that is.

As much as I hate them, the Conservatives are the only mainstream party who are right in what they say about immigration - therefore it's extremely disappointing that they haven't been able to deliver. That's why I think if you think that immigration is too high then UKIP are the only choice, it's time to give a new broom a try.

 

[Christmas themed thank]

When will people understand that these aren't promises, they're pledges.

Also, this was before a coalition, which makes everything more complicated. The Conservatives are doing much better than Labour did which is why I find it incredible that people want Labour back

 

[Caged]

Also, this was before a coalition

It was a speech he made in 2011.

When will people understand that these aren't promises, they're pledges.

The prime minister vowed to get net migration down to "tens of thousands" each year "no ifs, no buts" in a speech in 2011, adding "that's a promise we made to the British people and it's a promise we are keeping".

Sounds like Dave wanted it to be seen as a promise.

 

[Destination]

I do how we get a couple of nice editable pictures like the Dave one from the last election, the online easy editor made for fantastic election fun.
I still enjoyed my 2001 reference with Hal refusing to open the pod bay doors

 

[Danthus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174

Good to see David Cameron's pledge to reduce annual UK net immigration to the "tens of thousands" has been achieved - thirty tens of thousands that is.

As much as I hate them, the Conservatives are the only mainstream party who are right in what they say about immigration - therefore it's extremely disappointing that they haven't been able to deliver. That's why I think if you think that immigration is too high then UKIP are the only choice, it's time to give a new broom a try.

He offered something he could never deliver.

Like them or loathe them UKIP are correct, while we are in the EU we have no control over one area of immigration.

 

[v0n]

"The biggest increase in net migration was from outside the EU."

case for UKIP closed?

 

[scorza]

"The biggest increase in net migration was from outside the EU."

case for UKIP closed?

Nice try, but you got that from this bit of the article:

- A total of 271,000 people came to the UK for work-related reasons, according to the latest figures, up from 217,000 the previous year. Of those, 57% were EU citizens and 25% from outside the EU. The rest were British citizens.
- Of those moving to live in the UK for work-related reasons, 62% (167,000) came with a definite job to go to and 38% (104,000) came to look for work
- A total of 37,000 Romanian and Bulgarian citizens moved to the UK in the year, a "statistically significant" increase from 24,000 in the previous 12 months
- The biggest increase in net migration was from outside the EU.
It was 190,000 in the year ending September 2014, up from 138,000 in the previous year
- Net migration of EU citizens saw an increase to 162,000 from 130,000 the previous year

While the rise in immigration from outside the EU is odd, and a concern it's clear that EU immigration is the bigger problem - especially from Romania and Bulgaria, despite the British public being told not many would come.

 

[Danthus]

Lets ignore where the migrants come from for one minute and ponder this.

Is the national infrastructure keeping pace with immigration?

 

[D.P.]

Lets ignore where the migrants come from for one minute and ponder this.

Is the national infrastructure keeping pace with immigration?

More importantly, does immigration have a significant impact on national infrastructure. Answer, no.

 

[D.P.]

Nice try, but you got that from this bit of the article:



While the rise in immigration from outside the EU is odd, and a concern it's clear that EU immigration is the bigger problem - especially from Romania and Bulgaria, despite the British public being told not many would come.

I believe UKIP 's,policy was to allow Eu immigrant to enter the UK if they have a job lined up which clearly a large majority already have. And if UKIP don't allow this then their policies are even more insane than I even realized and would causes monument economic problems.

So is the UKIP really that concerned about 104/ (104+167+190) == 22.5% European migrants without a job that it requires leaving the EU? Especially when many of that 22% will have other valid legal reason to emigrate, e.g. family visas etc.


Not many Bulgarians or Romanians have come to the UK, far less than the scaremongering tactic of UKIP would lead one to believe?

 

[Danthus]

I believe UKIP 's,policy was to allow Eu immigrant to enter the UK if they have a job lined up which clearly a large majority already have. And if UKIP don't allow this then their policies are even more insane than I even realized and would causes monument economic problems.

So is the UKIP really that concerned about 104/ (104+167+190) == 22.5% European migrants without a job that it requires leaving the EU? Especially when many of that 22% will have other valid legal reason to emigrate, e.g. family visas etc.


Not many Bulgarians or Romanians have come to the UK, far less than the scaremongering tactic of UKIP would lead one to believe?

http://order-order.com/2015/02/26/keith-vazs-sensible-immigration-prediction/

Almost 200,000 is nothing.

 

[Danthus]

More importantly, does immigration have a significant impact on national infrastructure. Answer, no.

No?

 

[robgmun]

case for UKIP closed?

Nope, as they will control ALL immigration from both inside and outside the EU

 

[v0n]

Nope, as they will control ALL immigration from both inside and outside the EU

Immigration from outside is currently controlled and apparently that control was tightened last year. This resulted in 38% rise in numbers for controlled, visa based immigration. What's UKIPs solution, what's their silver bullet?

 

[Tunney]

- A total of 271,000 people came to the UK for work-related reasons, according to the latest figures, up from 217,000 the previous year. Of those, 57% were EU citizens and 25% from outside the EU. The rest were British citizens.

Bloody Brits. Coming over here, taking our jobs.

 

[robgmun]

Immigration from outside is currently controlled and apparently that control was tightened last year. This resulted in 38% rise in numbers for controlled, visa based immigration. What's UKIPs solution, what's their silver bullet?

Where the hell have you been in the last 2 years??