Poll: General election voting intentions poll

[robgmun]

http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

Click latest polls to see the last few months, hovers around 14/15% for UKIP. Down on last year of course, but doesn't look like it is sliding.

That's what i have been saying. But DP jumps on the 10%-12% polls and point to a slide when it's outdated data.

There also seems to the strengthening of the polls at the 15% mark this week as there have been less of the lower end ones and a tightening up at around 15%, i wouldn't be surprised by next week we'll start to see a couple of 16% ones thrown in there unless YouGov start shuffling out UKIP supporters from their database again

 

[D.P.]

Jack, the BBC poll tracker is broken.

And you're much better off comparing like for like, yougov for yougov

Trying to do a poll of polls of companies with different methodologies will give you an inaccurate result

Proof of that assertion?
What you state goes completely against the face of all statistical and quantitative research methodology.

The more data you have the more accurate the results with noise and variance reduced revealing the true underlying signal.

You can't claim the BBC poll is wrong just because you don't like the result!


The methodology used between the pollsters varies but remain constant within the current polling window, therefore the errors and noise in different polls are mitigated.

 

[ubersonic]

Looks to be sliding to me:

 

[D.P.]

If I'm being thick, then please enlighten me, but I don't see how that conclusion can be drawn from my words.

You claimed it would be easy for Brits to get an Eu visa and vie versa, therefore completely nullifying the point of implementing immigration controls.

 

[D.P.]

http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

Click latest polls to see the last few months, hovers around 14/15% for UKIP. Down on last year of course, but doesn't look like it is sliding.

No, look at the peak around October/November last year and see how the has been a consistent downward slide.

Your link quite clear;y proves what news articles are reporting and I have been stating for the last months, support for UKIP is declining since the peak around October last year.

Thanks for providing evidence for my statement.

 

[Judgeneo]

You claimed it would be easy for Britain to get an Eu visa and vie versa, therefore completely nullifying the point of implementing immigration controls.

I claimed it would be easy for people already in the country or EU to get a visa allowing them to stay, and said it would be more difficult for new arrivals.

How difficult depends on the level of control the government ends up implementing.

 

[D.P.]

Looks to be sliding to me:

Thanks, that slide shows exactly what i have been describing for the last weeks and supports what the newspaper headlines are saying.

 

[Glaucus]

Looks to be sliding to me:

http://s8.postimg.org/fat4151hx/leaving_the_european_union.jpg[/IMG]

That's just scary how many think we would be better off.

 

[Freddie1980]

Have you seen the clip the BBC have of Ed Balls saying it'll cost the UK money? Own goal o'clock .

He accidentally spoke the truth!

 

[Judgeneo]

No, look at the peak around October/November last year and see how the has been a consistent downward slide.

Your link quite clear;y proves what news articles are reporting and I have been stating for the last months, support for UKIP is declining since the peak around October last year.

Thanks for providing evidence for my statement.

I agreed they were down from last year I didn't disagree that they have had reduced support since October, only that they don't appear to have falling support in 2015. I do expect support to fall shortly before the election though as the mainstream parties ramp up to full election mode.

 

[D.P.]

The BBC poll tracker is actually very nice because you can get the exact figure fo various dates making it easier to compare than trying to eyeball the graphs.

UKIP had a peak of 18% on November 4th, and are now down to 13%. a 28% drop in peak to current, to be generous there was a wide window with around 17% before the peak and now a few weeks around 14%, so a fairly robust 18% drop.

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/poll-tracker

 

[deuse]

So the entire "controlled immigration" policy would be entirely useless and a waste of money since it wouldn't reduce any immigration rate?

No. The point is that desirable immigration, from the perspective of each state allowing people in or not, would be facilitated. What's the demographic makeup of Brits abroad in Europe? Why would their current host countries want to cease their relationship with them?

I wouldn't bother with dp as no matter what anyone says, it's his way or the byway.

DP should know the visa system as he had to go through it to get in to the USA...but ssshhhhh. Let him act thick.

 

[D.P.]

I agreed they were down from last year I didn't disagree that they have had reduced support since October, only that they don't appear to have falling support in 2015. I do expect support to fall shortly before the election though as the mainstream parties ramp up to full election mode.

UKIP started the year around 16% and are currently around 13% (from BBC poll of polls). The trend is fairly linear to me, about 1% drop per month.


I do also expect that come election day their vote will drop further, people always swing form minority parties to the big 2.

 

[D.P.]

No. The point is that desirable immigration, from the perspective of each state allowing people in or not, would be facilitated. What's the demographic makeup of Brits abroad in Europe? Why would their current host countries want to cease their relationship with them?

And as proven countless times EU immigrants are economically desirable because they contribute more in net taxes than British adults. Therefore a policy that is designed to only let desirable immigrants in would likely increase the rate of EU immigration.


Other countries will change their immigrant policy to reflect whatever requirements Britain would instill.


You mentioned retired people several times. They are actually the last people you want as immigrants because they don't contribute productive or significant tax, they cost significantly in benefits and pensions, and are a waiting time bomb for health related costs. Part of the reason EU immigrants are such high net contributors is many of them retire back in their home country so Britain gets to reap the benefits of a productive worker without the costs of a retired person.

 

[D.P.]

That's just scary how many think we would be better off.

It contradicts a lot of the other polls I have seen:

British support for EU membership at 23-year high -poll

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/re...-support-EU-membership-23-year-high-poll.html


I honestly have no idea where the reliable data on this can be found because there just aren't that many polls.

 

[robgmun]

Proof of that assertion?

methodology, some are internet, some a calling up people some are asking on the street. Believe it or not people can reply in different ways in different situations and are in different moods

 

[D.P.]

methodology, some are internet, some a calling up people some are asking on the street. Believe it or not people can reply in different ways in different situations and are in different moods

Which is exactly why you need to take a single poll with a large pinch of salt and look at the average of many polls and there underlying trends therein.
You've just proved my point.

 

[robgmun]

No, look at the peak around October/November last year and see how the has been a consistent downward slide.

You're a bit obsessed with that aren't you?

Are you so blinded by biased that you refuse to see that the slide stopped at a while ago and is now starting to pick up?

 

[robgmun]

Which is exactly why you need to take a single poll with a large pinch of salt and look at the average of many polls and there underlying trends therein.
You've just proved my point.

At the end of the day you're pitting one trend against another when you do poll of polls

Better to pick one company at a time and see what happening there

YouGov to Yougov, Survation to Survation

 

[Zethor]

The UK will not be leaving the EU in the near future. UKIP fans need to get that through their hands, it's not happenining and they main reason is simple: money.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-britain-84-billion-unless-borders-stay-open
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101137003#.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-eurozone-summit-city-idUKBREA1C1N920140213

There are two countries which are not part of the EU but very close to it through agreements. The UK leaving will simply turn it into a third such country which will comply to EU regulations yet have no say in their creation.

The Swiss banking industry has already been pummelled by U.S. and EU regulation, of which it has no control or influence.
Norway spends more money per citizen on being an external member of the EU than the U.K. does as a member, yet has no say in any of the EU's decisions.