Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)
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It was actually criminals comiting crimes while bundling crap with good and coniving to get the watered down bundles a triple a rating to sell as investment opportunities to people who knew what rubbish they were buying with other peoples money so they could rake in the commissions and bonuses, thousands of identifiable criminals who luckily have friends and influence in high places.
There was a Tory who did the same earlier.
Who cares what an old retiring bliarite has to say?
Soldato
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You have to give the SNP credit, there the only party that I know that can attract both bigots and feminists in equal quantity.
It would be a cold day in hell before Bromsgrove was anything but Conservative
Plus don't you think Tom Ebbutt is creepy? I do....
Just looked at Ebbutts twitter... surprise surprise hes canvassing Charford
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Soldato
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I dunno they all seem to be Richards!
Just please for the sake of god don't have Labour and SNP, just ****ing NO!
According to the Times even if Clegg wanted another coalition with Cameron his party at every level is opposed to it. The SNP will vote against the Tories. UKIP will get up to 4 MPs max so unless all the polls are wildly inaccurate the next Govt. is going to be Labour supported by the LibDems/SNP/PC/Greens.
Soldato
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Duh! That was because the world bought into the Chicago model(pushed by banks) that risk was totally eliminated. Hence they lent to what would have normally been very risky people because it was all covered. This also lead to Brown's infamous saying of "eliminated boom and bust".
You were getting 105 and 110% mortgages at the time. The lenders were trying to outdo one another.
Given the expected results, the only coalitions capable of getting the 322 seats needed for a majority are:
- LD, SNP, Labour (345)
- Green, SDLP, SNP Labour (322)
- Green, PC, SNP, Labour (323)
- Conservative, Labour (549)
Miliband has ruled out an SNP coalition so options 1-3 are out, and option 4 is beyond being a joke
Soldato
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The LibDems are forecast to get ~26 MPs.
Given the expected results, the only coalitions capable of getting the 322 seats needed for a majority are:
- LD, SNP, Labour (345)
- Green, SDLP, SNP Labour (322)
- Green, PC, SNP, Labour (323)
- Conservative, Labour (549)
Miliband has ruled out an SNP coalition so options 1-3 are out, and option 4 is beyond being a joke
You are talking about politicians and believing what they say they will do. I suspect it will be a Labour and LibDem coalition only. Although it will be short they can count on the SNP not to vote with the Tories as it would hurt them badly in Scotland. As one Labour ex-minister said on TV the SNP are actually is a very poor bargaining position.
May2015.com have the most recent 5 day poll of paolls for UKIP down to 12.4%, which is the lowest yet.
Admittedly I would have expected a greater drop by now down to around 10%. but the linear downward trend since last October is still very much evident, I just thought it would accelerate towards May 7th.
If you look at the following link:
http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/?sm=28&in=1&st=30/10/2014&en=30/04/2015
I have just changed the average to 4 weeks form 5 days so the small bumps are smoothed out. You can see back in early November UKIP at around 18%, now it is down to 13% (the average of the last 4 weeks is 13%, the average of the last 5 daysis 12.4%)
Things could be different on voting day, historically people who initially support minor parties end up voting for major parties for a variety of reasons, e.g., to vote tactically or they realize a vote for a minor party is largely wasted. There may be a large dropping UKIP support in favor of the conservative to try to block labour, but perhaps that is being too generous of the UKIP voters. Then again, voters on all ends of the spectrum are very disenfranchised with he major parties so maybe minority parties will stay firm.
Admittedly I would have expected a greater drop by now down to around 10%. but the linear downward trend since last October is still very much evident, I just thought it would accelerate towards May 7th.
If you look at the following link:
http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/?sm=28&in=1&st=30/10/2014&en=30/04/2015
I have just changed the average to 4 weeks form 5 days so the small bumps are smoothed out. You can see back in early November UKIP at around 18%, now it is down to 13% (the average of the last 4 weeks is 13%, the average of the last 5 daysis 12.4%)
Things could be different on voting day, historically people who initially support minor parties end up voting for major parties for a variety of reasons, e.g., to vote tactically or they realize a vote for a minor party is largely wasted. There may be a large dropping UKIP support in favor of the conservative to try to block labour, but perhaps that is being too generous of the UKIP voters. Then again, voters on all ends of the spectrum are very disenfranchised with he major parties so maybe minority parties will stay firm.
Here's a great article by Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman on why austerity didn't work.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion
Key takeaways:
- The harsher the austerity, the lower the growth
- UK austerity meant lower growth in the first two years of the last parliament
- UK is alone in believing that austerity has worked and the economic evidence for austerity leading to higher growth has been discredited
This would suggest that austerity going forward will result in lower growth - hence the Tory/UKIP plans would most harm the economy.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion
Key takeaways:
- The harsher the austerity, the lower the growth
- UK austerity meant lower growth in the first two years of the last parliament
- UK is alone in believing that austerity has worked and the economic evidence for austerity leading to higher growth has been discredited
This would suggest that austerity going forward will result in lower growth - hence the Tory/UKIP plans would most harm the economy.
This is pretty much where I stand at the moment, I want to vote for UKIP, but do not want to see Labour win.
So I feel like I am being forced to vote for a party that I do not want to vote for, just to attempt to keep out the one of the two I dont want to see in power.
Oh and could you please stop with the pathetic digs at people based on who they want to vote for.
Soldato
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Their polling data appears not to include 'others' such as the DUP/PC/SNP.
Given the expected results, the only coalitions capable of getting the 322 seats needed for a majority are:
- LD, SNP, Labour (345)
- Green, SDLP, SNP Labour (322)
- Green, PC, SNP, Labour (323)
- Conservative, Labour (549)
Miliband has ruled out an SNP coalition so options 1-3 are out, and option 4 is beyond being a joke
Milliband ruled out a formal coalition, he didn't rule out any other kind of deal, such as a vote of confidence to block the Tories.
You don't need a majority party/coalition to become the prime minister, you just need to pass the house vote of confidence. Labour can do that without an official coalition with SNP, they can e en do it without any explicitly deal. the SNP will vote no to any Tory proposed government, and they wont want a re-election so voting in confidence for any kind of Labour government is in their bets interest. This is what makes it so easy for labour, they don't have to do anything to get SNP on their side.
The other way to look at is is to is there any path where the Tories will be able to pass a vote of confidence. And there basically isn't from the current polls, even with reasonably large gains the Tories. There is an incredibly narrow chance where absolutely everything to go in the Tories favor. They have to win every single marginal labour seat and UKIP seat, the mid dems have beat every marginal labour seat, and the lib dems would have to agree to a Tory Coaliton which is looking increasingly unlikely, especially if that invovled any DUP or UKIP MPs. Even then things become exceedingly fragile, e.g. they might just make it without a single spare seat, or only 1 or 2 over. In which case if 1-2 members of that coalition gets sick or stuck in traffic unable to turn up to the queens speech then the Tories will be out voted.
So the options left are some kind of Labour government, even just labor alone as a minority, or a labour-tory coalition. The former is far more likely than the latter.
Indeed you could, but I suspect what happened is this. Conservative strategists observed that AV would help Labour due to the fractionated left, without a similar effect on the right, since they dominated it, so of course they campaigned against. Now that UKIP are stealing Tory votes it would actually help them, maybe even getting them a majority. That's ironic.
Man of Honour
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Other websites I frequent have a similar distribution of votes - but they tend to be filled with people with reasonable disposable income if that makes a difference?
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