Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

[Stretch]

Narrows things down a bit. I wonder if we'll see a Labour/SNP/LibDem coalition leaving the Tories isolated with Ukip?

The Lib Dems have already ruled out any agreement which involves the SNP, as too have labour. Ukip will get 5 MPs if they're lucky. That's not enough to have any influence what so ever.

At this rate, the only coalition I can see forming a majority is a Labour/Tory.

Unless one of the two biggest party's has a late surge, the arithmetic just doesn't add up.

We're heading for a Mexican Standoff.

 

[D.P.]

The Lib Dems have already ruled out any agreement which involves the SNP, as too have labour. Ukip will get 5 MPs if they're lucky. That's not enough to have any influence what so ever.

At this rate, the only coalition I can see forming a majority is a Labour/Tory.

Unless one of the two biggest party's has a late surge, the arithmetic just doesn't add up.

We're heading for a Mexican Standoff.

Labour don't need an official coalition with the SNP, they just need the SNP vote no for the Tories (which they 100% will) and yes for labour (which they 99.99% will to avoid the Tories, or a re-election where the Tories might get in).


There is really very few options for the Tories, there is something like 15 ultra marginal seats, if labour win any single one of them then they will get into power, Tories have to win every single one of them and they are all close to 50-50, so it is like tossing a coin 15 times and getting heads each and every time. A single tail and Milliband will be prime minister.



The only really thing that is clear in this election is the anti-Tory collective is going to be bigger than than the anti-labour, and it is that which will decide the prime minister. No one is going to make an absolute majority even with multi-part pads (the only possibility would be a formal labour-SNP coalition but that has been ruled out).

 

[Stretch]

It's not looking good for the tories, but I wouldn't write them off.

As I understand it, Ed has ruled out any agreement with the SNP, formal or otherwise. You would expect the SNP to vote with Labour on most issues, but the two party's disagree on enough that proceeding without some sort of deal would be extremely shaky ground, and very risky for Labour.

For example, the SNP will not back any further austerity for Scotland, regardless of whether it's prudent/necessary or not. This leaves the Labour making all the tough decisions, whilst the SNP get to play hero in Scotland. Event worse, the cuts will get through, but only with the support of the Tories, which means it's Labour doing the dirty on Scotland in cahoots with the Tory party.

The SNP are desperate to make political capital out of this, and they will do it at the Labour party's expense. Unless of course the Labour party make them an offer to keep quite.

I wouldn't like to be Ed forming the next government. It's suicide.

 

[Sankari]

Tory. While I must admit the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition is amusing, it surely won't happen.

 

[McPhee]

It's not looking good for the tories, but I wouldn't write them off.

As I understand it, Ed has ruled out any agreement with the SNP, formal or otherwise. You would expect the SNP to vote with Labour on most issues, but the two party's disagree on enough that proceeding without some sort of deal would be extremely shaky ground, and very risky for Labour.

For example, the SNP will not back any further austerity for Scotland, regardless of whether it's prudent/necessary or not. This leaves the Labour making all the tough decisions, whilst the SNP get to play hero in Scotland. Event worse, the cuts will get through, but only with the support of the Tories, which means it's Labour doing the dirty on Scotland in cahoots with the Tory party.

The SNP are desperate to make political capital out of this, and they will do it at the Labour party's expense. Unless of course the Labour party make them an offer to keep quite.

I wouldn't like to be Ed forming the next government. It's suicide.

If Labour can get the Lib Dems to back them then they just need to SNP to abstain from voting on UK budgets. I expect that will be pretty easy to do if Labour give Scotland control of its own budget. Away from austerity the two parties largely agree (Trident excepted, but the Tories would back any vote on that anyway), so Labour could count on SNP support most of the time.

 

[MrMoonX]

It's gonna be fun watching the night of the long knives in the Tory party when Cameron doesn't win a majority and the party boot him out. He can't even win an election against a really poor labour leader

 

[Freddie1980]

I see the forums phantom Sinn Fein voter has yet to strike!

Tory. While I must admit the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition is amusing, it surely won't happen.

Labour have to be very careful, a deal with the SNP could undermine a lot of their English support.

At this point Camerons best hope is to convince ukip voters to vote tactically (vote Tory), if this happens onmass The Conservatives would win by a mile If not Labour goes in via the back door with SNP support (maybe).

 

[delta0]

Already sent my vote. Conservative. Momentum is building for conservatives now, I saw yesterday there was an increase in the number of bets for a conservative win.

 

[McPhee]

Even if they do, I can't see David Cameron hanging on for long before he's pushed. Victory by a whisker, no majority for a second election in a row and this time they're going to lose seats. Doesn't look good for him. No third term? I doubt they'd let him near the next election even if he wanted to do it. They'll have a leadership election within a couple of years.

Of course you still need to consider the Nick Clegg shaped spanner in the works. The Tories could surge, get 310 seats and still not form the next government if Nick Clegg loses in Sheffield Hallam. It largely depends on who the Lib Dems put in charge of negotiations in the absence of their leader.

 

[scorza]

The Lib Dems have already ruled out any agreement which involves the SNP, as too have labour.

Labour have only ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, not all agreements.

Sadly I've predicted all along a Conservative majority government and I still think that will be the case - they're sneaky sods and will do anything to win this election so that they can finish the job on English public services.

 

[JoeF1]

I have been floating between Conservative and Labour. Going conservative though. I just find Ed would make a terrible leader.

 

[delta0]

Even if they do, I can't see David Cameron hanging on for long before he's pushed. Victory by a whisker, no majority for a second election in a row and this time they're going to lose seats. Doesn't look good for him. No third term? I doubt they'd let him near the next election even if he wanted to do it. Leadership election within two years.

He won't run a third term but will run all of the second. The PM does not need to be party leader and so they will simply elect a new party leader towards the end of the term. That new leader will be the person you see in the run up to the next election. Cameron will be there until the end.

 

[scorza]

Rupert Murdoch has thrown his weight behind the Conservatives in England, and the SNP in Scotland. It's really depressing to think that he's still a force to be reckoned with in UK politics...

 

[The Geezer]

Labour have to be very careful, a deal with the SNP could undermine a lot of their English support.

Why is that ? The SNP are where the labour party was before 'new labour', they stand left of centre. If the labour party went back to it's roots they would have split the vote in Scotland.

To be fair, Ed is trying to get labour back to a left of centre party this was supported my labour members when they said no to David Milliband.

 

[delta0]

Why is that ? The SNP are where the labour party was before 'new labour', they stand left of centre. If the labour party went back to it's roots they would have split the vote in Scotland.

To be fair, Ed is trying to get labour back to a left of centre party this was supported my labour members when they said no to David Milliband.

I thought labour wanted David and the unions wanted Ed? This is why it has gone so wrong for them this election. I think many voters would be more open to David.

 

[scorza]

Why is that ? The SNP are where the labour party was before 'new labour', they stand left of centre. If the labour party went back to it's roots they would have split the vote in Scotland.

To be fair, Ed is trying to get labour back to a left of centre party this was supported my labour members when they said no to David Milliband.

I don't think the SNP stand for anything except Scottish independence. They might be left-of-centre now because that's where the votes are in Scotland but back in 1979 they were backing Mrs Thatcher's Conservative party. Mark my words, if Labour do go into power requiring SNP support then they will regret it - remember that the SNP are a party that managed to pass a law that means everyone in the EU can go to university in Scotland and not pay any tuition fees, apart from the English, Welsh and Northern Irish. They are experts at the politics of division.

 

[Feek]

I've always voted the same way except for the last local election where I voted tactically to try and keep Carswell out (it failed) but for the general election I'll be going back to my normal party, Labour.

Incidentally, I've taken a number of the online tests where you answer lots of questions to see how you 'should' vote according to your views and they all gave me the same, satisfying answer.

Sadly a lot of people seem to be voting for people, not policies, which I suspect is largely how UKIP got in in my area (Clacton-on-Sea) recently because Douglas Carswell is very well liked locally.

 

[scorza]

I thought labour wanted David and the unions wanted Ed? This is why it has gone so wrong for them this election. I think many voters would be more open to David.

Labour are the party of the unions. For sure the right-wing press wanted David, which may explain why Labour wanted Ed.

 

[paradigm]

Sadly a lot of people seem to be voting for people, not policies, which I suspect is largely how UKIP got in in my area (Clacton-on-Sea) recently because Douglas Carswell is very well liked locally.

Interestingly my "vote for policies" (full question/policy set) has me favoring the parties in the order I would have done anyway. Which is nice.

Conservative here.

 

[mollymoo]

Conservative. I like some of UKIP manifesto, I really think they have some great ideas but I can't risk voting for them and not voting for Conservative.