I'm sick of emailin 20+ members so here it is......MATCHED BETTING by anksta

TY smokes, glad I seem to have this arb thing straight in my head. But I was wondering, where does tax come into this if at all? Also, as someone said, at betfair there seems to be a period of waiting until someone "accepts" your bet, what if nobody accepts it? It seems you've just lost your bet stake at the bookies. Has this happened to you?

and yep anksta through arbing I WOULD have made more money using my own capital, instead I used my free bet and "just" maxed it out at £50, instead of going over the 100% returns. but anksta make sure you read what I was thinking on page 9 about the betfair comissions eating most of your earnings when arbing, however smokes says these comissions drop over time. I think I'll have a browse today to get a feel for just how common these arb bets are..

I'm using a seperate debit card for this stuff, which happens to be my student card (never really used it before, just transferred maximum OD into my original debit card to make a bit of interest). The net result is, on my student card statement I just have several bookies listed, going deep into my free overdraft (which obv I can cover with funds elsewhere), but it must look horrendous for the bank :D
 
Last edited:
anksta said:
Right I'm going to run through an example, exactly from the start. Some people are still struggling a bit so maybe if they see it written down all the way through and can check it they might get it.



Right, my starting amount is £125, no more no less, nobody need worry about anythin and all sums and profits will be calculated from this.


Step 1

Sign up to Quidco. Quidco is a referral site that will allow you to earn cash for signing up to the bookies (see other posts for details).

Step 2

Going through Quidco to obtain their £25 referral, signup to Betfair and enter promotional code 6WYVMKTDH, this will get you £25 in your account. Deposit £100.

Step 3

Going through Quidco to obtain their £15 referral, signup to Betfred and deposit £25

Step 4

Using the Bet Calculator, find odds on any upcoming football matches, preferably higher odds and the closer together.

e.g. Chivas USA are playing Colombus in the MLS tonight at 1am, odds 2 and 2.08 for Chivas to win at betfred and fair respectively, this bet will yield a loss 1.60, a 93% bet retention (remember you're lookin for >92%).

For this bet, you would bet £25 at betfred on Chivas, odds 2.00 and then lay (if you dont know what layin is or or how to do it on betfair then I suggest you consult fundmydegree or there is a little animation on betfair that explains it) £24.63 on Chivas not to win.

That would be your first bet.

If Chivas win, you will receive £50 at Betfred and pay out £51.23 at betfair, i.e. profit of -1.23.

If the game is a draw or Chivas lose, your 25 in Betfred will go, but you will collect £24.63 in Betfair, a profit of -37p.

Now your free bet should be sitting in your Betfred, we move on to:

Step 5


Using your free bet, find another match coming up soon, as you are now using your free bet and for Betfair this is SNR (Stake Not Returned) you should be looking for bets with high odds, preferably over 4 and as close as possible on betfair and betfred, if you're lucky enough to find one with higher odds on betfair than betfred then lucky you.

A realistic bet for this would be odds of around 4.3 on Betfred and 4.65 say on Betfair although it is quite likely with enough browsing you can find better odds. I've made these odds up because I dont have time to look for a bet right now, (I found you a qualifer!) so say these odds are on any game: Boro to beat United.

So, you would put your odds into the bet calculator, select Free Bet Stake Not Returned and this would tell you how to place your free bet:

place your £25 on betfred, making sure use my free bet/promo cash/bonus balance or whatever it says (at this point, only the freebet should be left in the account as you would have withdrawn any winnings before this).

Then, on betfair, you would lay 17.93 for Boro not to win.

So, if Boro win, you will collect 82.50 at Betfred (SNR so you wont retain the 25 you bet with) and pay out 83.40 on Betfair, i.e. a loss of 90p.

If United win/draw you will lose your free bet on Betfred, but collect £17.93 at Betfair.

Step 6

From your starting point of £125 you can calculate your winnings:

If you win at the bookies both times:

profit of -1.23 first bet, a profit of -90p second bet

If you win at Betfair both times:

profit of -37p first bet, a profit of -£7.07 second bet.

So this begs the Question, the one question you all want answering, if these are the profits your losing no matter what happens, WHERE THE **** DOES ANY MONEY COME FROM????

Well, if you go back to point 1, you started with £125 to bet with, then from the calculations above, lost £2.13 on the 1st combination, and £7.44 on the second. But remember, you had £125 of your own money AND 25 OF SOMEONE ELSE'S so your sums come from £150, not £125.

Combination 1, £150 - £2.13 = 147.87 a profit of £22.87

Combination 2, £150 - £7.44 = £142.56 a profit of £17.56

Obviously there are another 2 combinations of where you win/lose but thats just math.

Also from this it seems it is much better to win both times at the bookies, however in reality this means you have to switch money from the bookies back across to betfair etc. which can take days and slow you right down.

I hope this makes it clearer.



Also, remembering your referrals from the start, £25 for Betfair quidco, £25 for referral code in betfair and £15 for Betfred Quidco.

Thats another £65 on top of whatever you win.
Click to expand...

Pho said:
From the long example post the bits you don't understand and I'll try and explain it for you.
Click to expand...



Ok cheers. Right the things I need answering are:

1: Do you basically ALWAYS use Betfair as the betting exchange and then just move on to different Betting places for your "to win" bets? i.e. Always lay at betfair?

2: In the long example above theres a caluclated profit of around £17 or £22 and then at the bottom it says "Also, remembering your referrals from the start, £25 for Betfair quidco, £25 for referral code in betfair and £15 for Betfred Quidco. Thats another £65 on top of whatever you win" Does this money become available straight away to withdraw or is this more money you have to wagger on matched betting to make it useable?

3: The bit Im finding confusing is where you use this betting calculator to calculate how much exactly to LAY. i.e. £24.63. Why is this not £25? Is it basically just minimising the loss? I dont get how that works. How can I ever know how much to do without using that calculator? What if that online calculator stops wortking one day?

4: I dont understand this whole "you must use the calculator to establish what bets are closest enough together" and this whole "you must not guess". I'm not meanign to be funny, I just don't understand.... if there are two odds say 4.0 and 4.2, vs 6.3 and 6.9 I can understand that this might be hard for peopel to see automatically which one is closer ok. Where as for example 2.0 and 2.2 vs 2.0 and 5.0 is clearly not as closer a match. OK with me so far....
Well why cant I just devide the lower number by the top number giving me a figure and multiply this by 100 giving me a bet retention figure? i.e.

4.0 and 4.2 = 4.0/4.2 = 95.2
6.3 and 6.9 = 6.3/6.9 = 91.3

Why doe sit have to be more complex than this simple divide?


I know..... I hate being thick.
 
Oh yeah one other thing, this whole Casino Bonus Bagging thing, I don't get how people have been stung with that? I read about it at fundmydegree, and it seems so much more simple than matched betting and you are still always guaranteed to come out with a profit...why do peple say this is a bad idea?

Thanks
 
If you are unlucky enough in the casino it is possible for you to make a loss. It is unlikely but it is not definite profit like matched betting is. I also find it quicker and more interesting to do matched betting than sit there playing blackjack on my computer for 2 hours
 
sniper007 said:
Ok cheers. Right the things I need answering are:

1: Do you basically ALWAYS use Betfair as the betting exchange and then just move on to different Betting places for your "to win" bets? i.e. Always lay at betfair?
Click to expand...

Yep. There are a few other betting exchanges, but Betfair is by far the most liquid (i.e. there's plenty of other peoples money in there for you to lay at good odds).

2: In the long example above theres a caluclated profit of around £17 or £22 and then at the bottom it says "Also, remembering your referrals from the start, £25 for Betfair quidco, £25 for referral code in betfair and £15 for Betfred Quidco. Thats another £65 on top of whatever you win" Does this money become available straight away to withdraw or is this more money you have to wagger on matched betting to make it useable?
Click to expand...

I'm not entirely sure about these. With Quidco you usually get whatever referral money you earned in your Quidco account which you can withdraw whenever, but it's worth checking if there are any release conditions, i.e. to get a free £15 at Quidco you may have to wager a total of £15 a betfair.

3: The bit Im finding confusing is where you use this betting calculator to calculate how much exactly to LAY. i.e. £24.63. Why is this not £25? Is it basically just minimising the loss? I dont get how that works. How can I ever know how much to do without using that calculator? What if that online calculator stops wortking one day?
Click to expand...

I use this spread sheet it allows me to keep track of everything and the calculator is very easy to understand - some of the other ones I've seen are much more complicated.

The calculator works out based on the amount you're betting, the odds for both the back and the lay and any commission you pay to Betfair what the optimum amount to lay is to minimise your loss.



You can see here that at odds of 3.0 if I staked £25 at the bookie I would get £75 back if I won there, but would have to shell out £51.64 to betfair (you must have this much in your betfair account before you can lay). £75-£51.64=£23.36 returned to me - so I'm currently £1.64 down.

If you ignore the spreadsheet and layed £25 this is what you would end up with if you won at the bookie:
£75 of winnings. However you have to pay betfair, which would be (£25x3.1)-£25=£52.5 ((laystake x odds) - laystake). Therefore £75-£52.5=£22.5 returned to me - so I'm £2.50 down.

4: I dont understand this whole "you must use the calculator to establish what bets are closest enough together" and this whole "you must not guess". I'm not meanign to be funny, I just don't understand.... if there are two odds say 4.0 and 4.2, vs 6.3 and 6.9 I can understand that this might be hard for peopel to see automatically which one is closer ok. Where as for example 2.0 and 2.2 vs 2.0 and 5.0 is clearly not as closer a match. OK with me so far....
Well why cant I just devide the lower number by the top number giving me a figure and multiply this by 100 giving me a bet retention figure? i.e.

4.0 and 4.2 = 4.0/4.2 = 95.2
6.3 and 6.9 = 6.3/6.9 = 91.3

Why doe sit have to be more complex than this simple divide?


I know..... I hate being thick.
Click to expand...


What I do is scan for odds without using a calculator - as you say, if I saw odds to back at 2.0 and to lay at 5.0 I know it's not worth it. However If I saw odds of 5.0 and 5.1 I'd put them into the calculator (as linked above) to a) work and what I'm set to lose and b) keep track of my total profit.

I find your way more complex; alt-tabbing into excel and filling in the two odds takes half a second - and especially when you're working with both SR and SNR bets you really want to know what it's going to cost you.
 
Pho said:
You can see here that at odds of 3.0 if I staked £25 at the bookie I would get £75 back if I won there, but would have to shell out £51.64 to betfair (you must have this much in your betfair account before you can lay). £75-£51.64=£23.36 returned to me - so I'm currently £1.64 down.

If you ignore the spreadsheet and layed £25 this is what you would end up with if you won at the bookie:
£75 of winnings. However you have to pay betfair, which would be (£25x3.1)-£25=£52.5 ((laystake x odds) - laystake). Therefore £75-£52.5=£22.5 returned to me - so I'm £2.50 down.
Click to expand...

So in this case using the spreadsheet saved me 86 pence? So for simplicity you could just not use the spreadsheet, and still make profit but your loss would be slightly greater? I just don't get how that works. can't get my head round it. How does the spreadsheet tell you how much to LAY? Should I even care?
 
sniper007 said:
So in this case using the spreadsheet saved me 86 pence? So for simplicity you could just not use the spreadsheet, and still make profit but your loss would be slightly greater? I just don't get how that works. can't get my head round it. How does the spreadsheet tell you how much to LAY? Should I even care?
Click to expand...

The spreadsheet does the math for you, so you lose as little as possible.

It will also calculate how to much lay if its SR or SNR, which is harder to work out in your head, and you stand to lose more if you get the lay wrong with SR/SNR bets.
 
sniper007 said:
So in this case using the spreadsheet saved me 86 pence? So for simplicity you could just not use the spreadsheet, and still make profit but your loss would be slightly greater? I just don't get how that works. can't get my head round it. How does the spreadsheet tell you how much to LAY? Should I even care?
Click to expand...


this is a method that relies on a bit of maths (that and bookies :) ) so its worth checkin it with a calculator, it isn't like its a lot of effort to do so you might as well.
 
Scratchy said:
What's up with Coral I can't find the little icon to change to Fractions - have they removed it?
Click to expand...

6c3hjrn.jpg


:)
 
hungryhungry123 said:
well played mate, I'm on a measely £100 or something, but have only done 2 bookies.

out of interest, how much of your £700 was from the refer and earn? :p
Click to expand...


the quidco referrals aren't counted and I have only made 40 quid from the betfair referral code, either a lot of people didnt enter it or its not validated or somethin yet.

I dont mind though 40 quid is definitely worth it.
 
So if I spend the next couple days reading up about this till I understand it completely (I need to cash a 'funding' check) is it pretty much a done deal that I'll make some money?

This seems like something so simple I can't understand where the pothole is... why isn't everyone doing this? Why do the betting companies let it happen (because the surely know it's happening)? Why do they appear to encourage it?

For an 18 year old student £200 quid in two days seems like a dream come true, say it is so mister! Say it is so! :D
 
the one downside is...

bookies take your money no questions.... getting it out is a week long job :(

ive £300 waiting to be withdrawn right now, nearly 1/3 is profit
 
I don't think you could actually make £200 in two days without a large amount of capital, as the winnings from the first wouldnt be withdrawn quick enough to be used in the second and so on. You'd need fresh capital each time.

[Unless you managed to win at the exchange of course]
 
mehuk said:
the one downside is...

bookies take your money no questions.... getting it out is a week long job :(

ive £300 waiting to be withdrawn right now, nearly 1/3 is profit
Click to expand...


if you use moneybookes then its instant transfer to betfair and things so much easier to change money around, think its a lot quicker goin to the account as well.

Some bookies don't qualify you for the free bet so you can't use it for all of them.
 
Right I have a quick question about Bonus bagging again....

Looking on the blackholebonus site it says for VC "expected profit £48" How does it have an expected profit of £48? Surely you just wager £500 put in a claim wager that £50 and then quit when you get ahead? So really you shouldnt ever be down? Unless you just decide to quit?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom