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Intel has a Pretty Big Problem..

There stock just jumped over 10%, you need to warn us before predicting doom so I can load up!
Plenty of speculation that Qualcomm might be buying large parts of Intel or purchasing them outright which is driving that increase. Given the troubles their having with ARM at the moment it's only adding fuel to the rumours.
 
There stock just jumped over 10%, you need to warn us before predicting doom so I can load up!
Didn't they also announce more layoffs? Stock market speculators always take perverse pleasure in layoffs.

Or they think the huge write-downs imply they intend to get the worst over with quickly, or Intel is about to get more corporate welfare.

However, even if Intel "18A" (whose specs currently sound a lot more like what Intel had initially promised for Intel 20A) is a success Intel's own volumes isn't enough to pay for it and they have no real external customers.

ARL is a disaster, and while their current server parts are a lot closer to AMD's their costs are a lot higher for worse performance. Plus they have nothing for the AI hype while AMD - who where also later to the AI party - now get around 50% DC revenue from Instinct.

Stock markets behave strangely but I see no grounds for optimism for Intel.
 
Plenty of speculation that Qualcomm might be buying large parts of Intel or purchasing them outright which is driving that increase. Given the troubles their having with ARM at the moment it's only adding fuel to the rumours.
Nothing to do with that and they didn’t announced new layoffs. The company just beat expectations and outlook is better than what was expected.

Didn't they also announce more layoffs? Stock market speculators always take perverse pleasure in layoffs.

Or they think the huge write-downs imply they intend to get the worst over with quickly, or Intel is about to get more corporate welfare.

However, even if Intel "18A" (whose specs currently sound a lot more like what Intel had initially promised for Intel 20A) is a success Intel's own volumes isn't enough to pay for it and they have no real external customers.

ARL is a disaster, and while their current server parts are a lot closer to AMD's their costs are a lot higher for worse performance. Plus they have nothing for the AI hype while AMD - who where also later to the AI party - now get around 50% DC revenue from Instinct.

Stock markets behave strangely but I see no grounds for optimism for Intel.

1) No new layoffs
2) write downs are to reflect accurate asset values, irrelevant to “corporate welfare” because they are non-cash charges.
3) ARL is not a “disaster” it will still be embedded in most OEM systems. DIY is a niche market.
4) GNR is much more competitive with Turin than SPR ever was with Genoa.

Stock goes up because expectations were beaten, nothing else.
 
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Saw this quoted in another forum:

"Here is a tidbit from Intel 10Q, related to client, QoQ numbers from Q2 to Q3:
Desktop: - $457m ( - 18%)
Notebook: + $408m ( + 9%)

What also happened in Q3: reports of instability / silicon degradation of Intel Raptor Lake CPUs, 13 + 14 gen (especially on desktop), followed up by multiple microcode revisions to address the issue.

It seems like nearly half a billion of business evaporating would be worth mentioning by Intel management in the earning report or conference call. Especially if it leads permanent loss of commercial desktop monopoly for Intel."

I guess only Intel themselves know how much of this is due to the RPL failures but that handling an issue poorly can eventually cost hugely in terms of perception was always obvious to many of us.
 
Saw this quoted in another forum:

"Here is a tidbit from Intel 10Q, related to client, QoQ numbers from Q2 to Q3:
Desktop: - $457m ( - 18%)
Notebook: + $408m ( + 9%)

What also happened in Q3: reports of instability / silicon degradation of Intel Raptor Lake CPUs, 13 + 14 gen (especially on desktop), followed up by multiple microcode revisions to address the issue.

It seems like nearly half a billion of business evaporating would be worth mentioning by Intel management in the earning report or conference call. Especially if it leads permanent loss of commercial desktop monopoly for Intel."

I guess only Intel themselves know how much of this is due to the RPL failures but that handling an issue poorly can eventually cost hugely in terms of perception was always obvious to many of us.
They may lay off some employees but they will always retain their 'creative accountants' - they are the best :)'.

some things I didn't know

 
They may lay off some employees but they will always retain their 'creative accountants' - they are the best :)'.

some things I didn't know

That Lunar Lake is a one off has been rumoured for a while now. Possibly even official or semi official roadmap have shown no follow up.

That the reason is because on-package memory drives down their margins seems typical Intel focusing on the short-term - chronic short-termism is mostly why Intel lost process leadership to TSMC in the first place.

I've said this lots of times already but what allowed Intel and their really really poor x86 chips to dominate over fat better CISC chips (like three 68k) and workstation RUSC was volume, volume, and volume.

Volume allowed Intel the best fabs in the 80s and 90s.

Volume allowed them to hire great engineers.

Everyone should know that, but it seemed that inside the Intel bubble, Intel themselves believed that 8086, 80286, 80386 etc. were actually good chips which won on technical merit not volume.

Then in the 2000s Intel was so drunk on their dominance that they infamously ignored volume with phone chips and crippled Atom.

That a few years later, phone's huge volumes would spell trouble for Intel the self-fabbing CPU company came as no real surprise.

The TSMC spat might be that just prior to Pat, Intel snaked that they were serious about going full TSMC. Later with Pat they changed course - back to "real men have fabs" - and once the current contract was up: well why would TSMC give a future competitor a preferential deal?
 
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Intel really does have a big problem. It seems that after Pinocchio Pat delivered Q4 earnings with a 'rosy outlook' everything was fine. Now it seems to be unravelling. Bad news is everywhere - far to many to post. Everything from unattaiable targets, 15% reduction in R&D, more layoffs, cancellation of Gaudi, outsourcing to TSMC, collapse of profit margin not to mention that now AMD DC sales outpace Intel. Lack of income and mounting debts, the list of problems goes on and on.

I doubt if the continuing sale of assets and gov. funding can stave off the inevitable

no simple fix here
 
how relevant are intel now?
slightly relevant? lol


<3

the web is awash with stories. some or many of them AI generated I reckon.

nvidia could blow amd and intel out of the water completely (developing its own ARM cpu's for PC). that is IF regulators dont step in to stop a monopoly.
 
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slightly relevant? lol


<3

the web is awash with stories. some or many of them AI generated I reckon.

nvidia could blow amd and intel out of the water completely (developing its own ARM cpu's for PC). that is IF regulators dont step in to stop a monopoly.
so AMD lost 5% market share 2024.

how relevant is pcviewed i wonder :)
 
so AMD lost 5% market share 2024.

how relevant is pcviewed i wonder :)
yeh. bit suss.


  • Desktop CPUs
    In the first quarter of 2024, Intel had a 76.1% share of the desktop market, while AMD had 23.9%.


  • Overall x86 computer CPUs
    In the third quarter of 2024, Intel processors made up 63% of x86 computer CPUs, while AMD processors made up 33%.


what google AI tells me. but hey, im just an aristocrat. i expect others to do all the work as well as give me the money to profit from it.

Nvidia PC. (toy for gaming)
 
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yeh. bit suss.


  • Desktop CPUs
    In the first quarter of 2024, Intel had a 76.1% share of the desktop market, while AMD had 23.9%.


  • Overall x86 computer CPUs
    In the third quarter of 2024, Intel processors made up 63% of x86 computer CPUs, while AMD processors made up 33%.


what google AI tells me. but hey, im just an aristocrat. i expect others to do all the work as well as give me the money to profit from it.

Nvidia PC. (toy for gaming)
well those figures are an estimate but with that in mind 60 / 40 split by then end of 2024 maybe. 2025 50 /50 who knows? not Pat ;)
 
whatever the other tech companies (toy manufacturers) tell you.
<3

already summed up the game in one word.
monopoly.

(in the toy bidness)

'for the frames'

daily podcasts, today's version of junk mail. 'for the clicks'
 
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