ISIL, ISIS, Daesh discussion thread.

Has anyone listened to the podcast called Caliphate? It's really interesting, wonder if anyone know if there's any more similar things out there?
 
ubersonic said:
Nope it's still just a less plausible theory, though I will give it to you that despite that it is still the one most commonly repeated by western governments. Regardless, the idea that Russia sent the Ukrainian rebels some Russian Buks to use instead of their existing Buks for no reason is still daft.
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What isn't daft is the presence of Russian troops there and the allegation that it was a Russian launcher manned by Russian soldiers that was responsible.
 

Great stuff, if they honestly rejected the deal and this is true. Let's begin the assault, finish this for once and all.

The agreement between Russia and Turkey is just a way to justify Turkey's selling out of Idlib. Once a party breaks the agreement Syria and its allies will have a justification to move in, and Turkey will have a reason to pull out without losing face. Same thing that went down in the South with Jordan.
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Some guy in SCW wrote this, it makes sense.
 
dowie said:
What was comical
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The conspiracy theory that it was a Russian launcher manned by Russian troops, it's comical in it's absurdity.

I mean lets put it in perspective, if it were true (and this is a big if as Occam's razor tells us that the simplest solution tends to be the right), then this conversation must at one point have taken place:

Putin: How's stuff going over in Ukraine?
Rebels: Awesome vlad, we've kicked the loyalists out of our areas, captured a bunch of Buks that we're using to shoot down military planes that our shoulder mounted launchers can't reach, and we have some artillery too.
Putin: Anything you need?
Rebels: Yeah, TANKS! We only captured a couple hundred and the Kiev boys have thousands of the things, including their latest models which are even better than your new stuff, we need tanks!
Putin: Okay, I'm sending you some extra Buks.
Rebels: Wha, we don't need more Buks, we have enough, we need TANKS!
Putin: Yeah but these Buks will be crewed by highly trained Russian operators, your guys might accidentally mistake a Boeing for another transport or something.
Rebels: Dude, half our guys were in the Soviet army, they can push a button when it lights up, SEND US TANKS.
Putin: Er, looks like one of the extra Buks I sent had an accident, gonna have to recall it, don't talk to the western press.
Rebels: Huh, what do y- where is that smoke coming from?
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It's not a completely improbable theory, it's just significantly less likely than the most probable one (moronic rebels shooting down an airliner with one of their Buks because they're idiots and then Russia helping them to try to cover it up).
 
ubersonic said:
The conspiracy theory that it was a Russian launcher manned by Russian troops, it's comical in it's absurdity.

I mean lets put it in perspective, if it were true (and this is a big if as Occam's razor tells us that the simplest solution tends to be the right), then this conversation must at one point have taken place
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Well if you're going to cite Occam's razor then you probably ought to accept that explanation, it is the simplest one, we know Russian troops and equipment were present, we know a launcher retreated back over the border after the shooting down of the aircraft...

While rebels can no doubt be trained to operate a rifle I don't expect an ad hoc rebel group to even attempt to try and operate air defence equipment.
 
dowie said:
While rebels can no doubt be trained to operate a rifle I don't expect an ad hoc rebel group to even attempt to try and operate air defence equipment.
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This was discussed before here, you can learn how to operate an Buk / S-200 in a day or so.

Some good videos on Youtube that teach you, manuals that you can torrent, plus there is some realistic SAM games you can practice on.

Here you go, have fun: https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home
 
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ubersonic said:
it's comical in it's absurdity.
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Eh what? there is way too much information that vaguely supports either possibility to decisively rule out one or the other - your logic only works in a rigid set of circumstances that don't match half the information out there.
 
Rroff said:
Eh what? there is way too much information that vaguely supports either possibility
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There is, however there's significantly more supporting the original theory, including much higher plausibility, probability, and as mentioned the fact that Occam's Razor dictates that the simplest most logical explanation is usually the correct one.


dowie said:
Well if you're going to cite Occam's razor then you probably ought to accept that explanation
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Because it's less simple, less probable and less sensicle? It is the exact opposite of the Occam principle hence why it gets so much ridicule.

I mean, all you have to do to dismiss it is look at it with any sense of logical/critical thinking: Why would Russia send it's own Buks to assist rebels who already had Buks and were already using them to counter loyalist aircraft? Why, if it did send one of it's own Buks did one end up shooting down an airliner when it would have had a trained experienced crew? (after all the rebels hadn't made that mistake*). Like most conspiracy theories it simply doesn't stand up to the most basic of logical credibility checks.

*Of course they almost certainly did make that mistake and Russia helped them try to cover it.
 
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ubersonic said:
Because it's less simple, less probable and less sensicle? It is the exact opposite of the Occam principle hence why it gets so much ridicule.
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No it isn't, like I said we know Russian troops and equipment are present in the area, we have evidence of these systems crossing the border. The simpler explanation is they were operated by the Russians rather than the convoluted explanation of some ad hoc rebels apparently training themselves via YouTube videos and pdfs etc... as suggested earlier.
 
IronWarrior said:
You confused with fighting ISIS. No one is fighting HTS other then SAA and their allies.

The SDF and Americans are 1000's of miles on the other side of the country and Turkey is in the north who have setup forward observation posts all along the edge between SAA and them. Not a single western country has ever done a airstrike or conducted any sort of military operation against them during the Civil War.
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Are you suggesting a western country should? And in by doing so, impinge on widely dominated Russian skies, risk hitting the wrong (Russia/SAA) unit and further outright conflict with them too. Hmm, OK.
 
RoboCod said:
What a dim view of the modern military. I thought you lot were "woke af"?
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I guarantee the average IQ for front line soldiers is way less than that of pilots, engineers, artillery, navy, special forces

We were talking specifically about grunts, not the military as a whole, but I'm not surprised you missed that in your lust to try and get one over on some random person on the internet :rolleyes: it seems all you ever add to discussions is veiled insults at people you disagree with
 
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