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It looks like the 'real' /affordable RDNA3 + next gen NV desktop launch won't launch until September. Thoughts?

Soldato
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It's never gonna be $80 (on top of what TSMC charge to actually make it and the cost of GDDR6?). That's a made up number. When will people stop believing anything MLID says.

Well tbf MLID didn't say it his guest did, that's if that's even where I heard it. I'll try and find the source when I'm home.
 
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Soldato
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As I don't have time to hunt for the source I'm just going to quote Grim5's post from another thread. Not going to pretend I've worked it out myself cos I haven't, don't have time right now. Now also considering the fact that AMD don't have their own fab then it's kind of obvious they sell the design and the rest is upto to Sony.

Sony has sold 20 million PS5 consoles in last 12 months and the revenue from selling the SoC the PS5 to Sony makes up 60% of Radeon revenue.

Using AMDs published Radeon segment revenue from here for last year https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wir...quarter-and-full-year-2022-financial-results/

We can calculate that AMD makes $80 per PS5 console sold
 
Soldato
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As I don't have time to hunt for the source I'm just going to quote Grim5's post from another thread. Not going to pretend I've worked it out myself cos I haven't, don't have time right now. Now also considering the fact that AMD don't have their own fab then it's kind of obvious they sell the design and the rest is upto to Sony.

So what about all the SoCs in the Xbox? Xbox is selling about 2/3rd the rate of the Playstation. So thats like 13m Xbox consoles.

Easily debunkable. Just requires some critical thinking, instead of people hearing what they want to believe.

Where did 60% come from?

People making up numbers.

If 60% of revenue is from Playstation, then 40% is from the Xbox, which means 100% is SoCs.

edit: I'm not surprised a post with bad Maths is getting upvoted. The truth doesn't matter here. There is also the Steam Deck and undoubtedly others.
 
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Soldato
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Well, even if dgpus don't shift, AMD is still shifting consoles.

AMD in this logic doesn't need to react at all, they can in theory hold high prices and Nvidia won't budge until they can't shift any reasonable volume

You can still get many 6000 cards for a great price. That sort of says it all really. So they certainly won't shift anything in reasonable volume, especially brand new completely over priced cards.

If they want market share? they have an open goal here. Problem is they had that same open goal with the two high end 7000 cards and totally whiffed it.
 
Soldato
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So what about all the SoCs in the Xbox? Xbox is selling about 2/3rd the rate of the Playstation. So thats like 13m Xbox consoles.

Easily debunkable.

Where did 60% come from?

People making up numbers.

If 60% of revenue is from Playstation, then 40% is from the Xbox, which means 100% is SoCs.
AMD let slip that Sony was 16% of their overall revenue.
The 60% would be Radeon Groups share

Sony Becomes AMD's Largest Customer on Booming PS5 Sales​

In fact, AMD's gaming business unit — which sells discrete graphics processors for desktop graphics cards and notebooks as well as SoCs for game consoles — earned $6.805 billion in earnings and $953 million in profits last year and was the company's main source of revenue. Keeping in mind that in recent quarters the unit sales of AMD's standalone GPUs have declined (based on data from Jon Peddie Research), consoles SoCs accounted for the lion's share of AMD's gaming business unit revenue.

So if AMD overall for 2022 was $23.571 billion:
olFmXyf.png
and Sony was 16% of that, then that's around $3.7 billion or about 55% of Gaming's revenue.

Still doesn't tell us how much they profit they make on each PS5.

And 3,700,000,000 divided by 19,000,000 PS5 consoles is "only" $198 per console. And since Gaming's overall margin was only 14% (953 / 6,805), then the profit per PS5 could be as low as $28 or so although times 19 million that would still be over half a $billion.

However, while AMD letting it slip that their top customer was 16% (and everyone deduced that this was Sony), AFAIK they didn't let slip how much profit they made from Sony.

As far as we know, the deal is indeed that AMD make the SOC and Sony/Microsoft/etc. buy it from them (possibly due to the x86 licensing terms).

Many questions still remain:

  1. For instance when PS5 yields were meant to have been so low (possibly because Sony decided to up the clocks late in development once they got an idea of the XBX performance), did AMD eat that potentially scrapping millions of good parts because they could not run at the PS5 clocks?
  2. Who paid for the PS5 6nm shrink?
  3. What are numbers for Microsoft?
  4. Are the console margins (at least "now" in 2022) actually higher but AMD's GPU business is dragging things down?
The simple answer is: we do not know and probably will never know.

However, simple dismissing AMD's console business as being "low margins crumbs" is pretty close what Nvidia sources said way back when and it is likely not true or no longer true. Nvidia were never in the running both because Nvidia had managed to **** off both Sony and Microsoft before (JHH is an expert at this), and they had high performing CPU and certainly nothing x86. And developers had told both Sony and Microsoft that they wanted x86 before the last gen of consoles - not that developers are always listened to as I seem to recall that for this gen they also really asked for 32GB which would have really got the VRAM debated heated!
 
Caporegime
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XBox sell about half as many as PS5, so included that would take the share of AMD's gaming revenue to about 75%?

The dGPU's themselves will be profitable, even the RX 6600XT right now at £200 flat after the BOM costs, AIB, the global inventory shipping and the retailer all take their cut will have a profit, all be it a small one, £20 a pop?

However these things cost R&D to develop, that is expensive, that cost will be shared as IP for many segments, including consoles, but if you're only selling what? at best a million GPU's globally every year? its peanuts in terms of revenue.
 
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Soldato
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I think if they haven't released most of the RDNA3 series by the end of June, I'm giving up.

I'll probably just get an RTX 4070 or something, maybe for £500 by then.

I guess we might see Navi32 graphics cards by June, because they could be considered to be mainstream tier (as opposed to Navi31).
 
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Soldato
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This thread is supposed to be about new GPU releases!

The only new news is that there is an RX7600 8GB:

Interestingly no RX7600XT leaks,so hopefully it means its not to pricey.
 
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Associate
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You can still get many 6000 cards for a great price. That sort of says it all really. So they certainly won't shift anything in reasonable volume, especially brand new completely over priced cards.

If they want market share? they have an open goal here. Problem is they had that same open goal with the two high end 7000 cards and totally whiffed it.
Yes that 6000 series is at a great price now, I'm personally holding out for AV1 capaby cards at a good price.

I think gamers look at market share, developers don't and it's very meaningless in all honesty.

Nvidia having a large market share in the dgpu space hasn't benefited anyone.

The consoles are selling still in large volumes so developers care here.

We will see a further decline in dgpu sales of prices don't correct, this means the difference between console owners ps5 and Xbox X with people with GPUs above a 1060 gets larger and developer's care less.

The dgpu market share discussion is dead now and has been since the ps5 release.
 
Soldato
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The simple answer is: we do not know and probably will never know.

Their operating margin will be the weighted average margin of the underlying revenue. So if increasing SoC sales results in a lower average margin, then you can tell which has the lower margin. The data we do have suggests this.

It's not even particularly surprising that extremely high volume clients negotiate far lower margins. It's simple common sense.

The 14% operating margin will be maybe 10% on consoles SoCs and 20% on discrete GPUs, averaged out it comes to somewhere in between. You can see this is also down on 2021. Compared to AMD's other divisions this is also low. Their client division (Ryzen etc.) has taken a hit this year, but last year is what you would expect for an operating margin for a tech company. Like nvidia, the data center is the future, and AMD buying Xilinx is helping their embedded divison.

Regardless, the $80 is far too high when you consider everything.
 
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Soldato
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This thread is supposed to be about new GPU releases!

It is, but apparently, AMD are rolling in cash from consoles, and so are in no rush. The reality is that once ethereum went proof of stake, AMD have become complacent in actually selling to gamers some decent high margin graphics cards. The 7900XTX and 7900XT was a good start, but something isn't quite right with delays to cards lower down, potentially skipping the 7800 entirely.
 
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