Italian Grand Prix 2013, Monza - Race 12/19
- Thread starter Duke
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Not entirely sure why people are jumping to conclusions about practice speed. I'd suggest going and checking how far behind Vettel Hamilton has been in p2/3 in the past few races, the answer is 0.6-1.4 seconds behind in pace.
Particularly at different races different cars are practicing different things. RBR need to work on the car with the highest top speed possible so that is their focus in every practice, more so at these tracks. Merc has high top speed and all their practice is focused getting life in tyres, reducing temp and doing race runs, they aren't focused on top speed. Despite being 1.4seconds behind Vettel 2 races ago in the same practice and 0.8 I think last race, he still got pole.
Merc has that speed on tap, practice isn't an indication of RBR dominating speed/quali/practice. As plenty of pundits said, Belgium had a corner that only the RBR could do without trouble and then use a great exit to get past people on that straight. At Monza there is less "good" corners for RBR into the long straights and more ability for the top speed to equalise against the RBR. That doesn't mean Hamilton will get Pole, but it should be fairly obvious that when they want to turn up the engine and bone everyone including Vettel in qualifying Merc has done so in every race outside of the first 2-3 races.
Overall I'd say on those gaps Ferrari and Lotus are closer than they usually are at this stage of the weekend, and we already know the Merc can gain that time when it comes to Q3 pace.
Also the important thing is, a car over a clean lap is faster with more downforce here and Spa, but less downforce is what actually lets you pass people on the long fast straights. If Hamilton gets pole, with no Eau rouge to help them into a straight, Red Bull are going to struggle to pass cars and Ferrari/Merc and possible a couple others cars have a very real chance of passing them with the higher speed.
RBR were 7th fastest in the speed trap at the end of the straight in Spa, but 1st at the beginning of the straight.
The difficulty is Merc not being great in the first couple laps, Red Bull being okay and Ferrari being often great, without Eau Rouge to help him, in MOST races recently the Merc's have managed to hold a lead up to the first round of pitstops. If that happens again then Vettel could easily come under a serious challenge from Ferrari/Lotus's behind them.
I don't think Hamilton will win, its possible, more so if he gets help and people held up like hsi last win. But I think if Vettel can't pass Hamilton very quickly the race might start to favour Alonso significantly. Alonso to pass Vettel in the first stint and get Hamilton after the first pit stop sometime.
Particularly at different races different cars are practicing different things. RBR need to work on the car with the highest top speed possible so that is their focus in every practice, more so at these tracks. Merc has high top speed and all their practice is focused getting life in tyres, reducing temp and doing race runs, they aren't focused on top speed. Despite being 1.4seconds behind Vettel 2 races ago in the same practice and 0.8 I think last race, he still got pole.
Merc has that speed on tap, practice isn't an indication of RBR dominating speed/quali/practice. As plenty of pundits said, Belgium had a corner that only the RBR could do without trouble and then use a great exit to get past people on that straight. At Monza there is less "good" corners for RBR into the long straights and more ability for the top speed to equalise against the RBR. That doesn't mean Hamilton will get Pole, but it should be fairly obvious that when they want to turn up the engine and bone everyone including Vettel in qualifying Merc has done so in every race outside of the first 2-3 races.
Overall I'd say on those gaps Ferrari and Lotus are closer than they usually are at this stage of the weekend, and we already know the Merc can gain that time when it comes to Q3 pace.
Also the important thing is, a car over a clean lap is faster with more downforce here and Spa, but less downforce is what actually lets you pass people on the long fast straights. If Hamilton gets pole, with no Eau rouge to help them into a straight, Red Bull are going to struggle to pass cars and Ferrari/Merc and possible a couple others cars have a very real chance of passing them with the higher speed.
RBR were 7th fastest in the speed trap at the end of the straight in Spa, but 1st at the beginning of the straight.
The difficulty is Merc not being great in the first couple laps, Red Bull being okay and Ferrari being often great, without Eau Rouge to help him, in MOST races recently the Merc's have managed to hold a lead up to the first round of pitstops. If that happens again then Vettel could easily come under a serious challenge from Ferrari/Lotus's behind them.
I don't think Hamilton will win, its possible, more so if he gets help and people held up like hsi last win. But I think if Vettel can't pass Hamilton very quickly the race might start to favour Alonso significantly. Alonso to pass Vettel in the first stint and get Hamilton after the first pit stop sometime.
Soldato
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Do you get paid by the word, DM?
The thing is Sparky, it's nothing against you or RBR as a team.
If Webber started winning again we'd all be very happy.
Just bored of Vettel winning everything!
P1 Results
P2 Results
Code:
[b]Pos Driver Team Time Gap Laps[/b]
1. Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1m25.565s 24
2. Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1m25.600s +0.035s 25
3. Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1m25.704s +0.139s 25
4. Sebastian Vettel Red Bull-Renault 1m25.753s +0.188s 26
5. Kimi Raikkonen Lotus-Renault 1m25.941s +0.376s 22
6. Sergio Perez McLaren-Mercedes 1m26.007s +0.442s 24
7. Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1m26.035s +0.470s 23
8. Mark Webber Red Bull-Renault 1m26.103s +0.538s 27
9. Pastor Maldonado Williams-Renault 1m26.149s +0.584s 21
10. Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1m26.155s +0.590s 25
11. Esteban Gutierrez Sauber-Ferrari 1m26.194s +0.629s 25
12. Romain Grosjean Lotus-Renault 1m26.295s +0.730s 23
13. Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1m26.387s +0.822s 21
14. Felipe Massa Ferrari 1m26.449s +0.884s 16
15. Paul di Resta Force India-Mercedes 1m26.594s +1.029s 13
16. Valtteri Bottas Williams-Renault 1m26.802s +1.237s 21
17. James Calado Force India-Mercedes 1m27.041s +1.476s 24
18. Nico Hulkenberg Sauber-Ferrari 1m27.224s +1.659s 16
19. Charles Pic Caterham-Renault 1m27.818s +2.253s 24
20. Max Chilton Marussia-Cosworth 1m27.869s +2.304s 20
21. Heikki Kovalainen Caterham-Renault 1m28.192s +2.627s 21
22. Rodolfo Gonzalez Marussia-Cosworth 1m29.526s +3.961s 26P2 Results
Code:
[b]Pos Driver Team Time Gap Laps[/b]
1. Sebastian Vettel Red Bull-Renault 1m24.453s 39
2. Mark Webber Red Bull-Renault 1m25.076s +0.623s 39
3. Kimi Raikkonen Lotus-Renault 1m25.116s +0.663s 36
4. Romain Grosjean Lotus-Renault 1m25.116s +0.663s 40
5. Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1m25.330s +0.877s 38
6. Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1m25.340s +0.887s 39
7. Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1m25.367s +0.914s 42
8. Felipe Massa Ferrari 1m25.519s +1.066s 29
9. Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1m25.532s +1.079s 42
10. Sergio Perez McLaren-Mercedes 1m25.627s +1.174s 39
11. Paul di Resta Force India-Mercedes 1m25.830s +1.377s 40
12. Esteban Gutierrez Sauber-Ferrari 1m25.888s +1.435s 40
13. Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 1m26.028s +1.575s 37
14. Pastor Maldonado Williams-Renault 1m26.138s +1.685s 36
15. Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1m26.224s +1.771s 32
16. Nico Hulkenberg Sauber-Ferrari 1m26.385s +1.932s 43
17. Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1m26.599s +2.146s 39
18. Valtteri Bottas Williams-Renault 1m27.198s +2.745s 44
19. Max Chilton Marussia-Cosworth 1m27.548s +3.095s 30
20. Charles Pic Caterham-Renault 1m27.696s +3.243s 37
21. Giedo van der Garde Caterham-Renault 1m27.771s +3.318s 38
22. Jules Bianchi Marussia-Cosworth 1m28.057s +3.604s 32The turning point for me, what the tyres.
Once Pirelli made the tyres more durable, RBR drivers were able to unleash the full speed of the car and the rest were history.
The only reason why Lotus and Ferrari did so well at the start of the season was because their cars were the kindest to the tyres.
I've said this all along, before the season start, that I simply can't see anyone other than Vettel winning the title this year and I see no reason to change that opinion.
Next year, I think the title race will be between Hamilton and Vettel and I'm not so confident installing Vettel as 2014 title favourite (as I was in 2013).
As for Alonso, its painful seeing the best driver in F1, not winning any titles. I actually think that from a sporting perspective its unfair. I like to see the best player in a sport, win. Had Alonso behaved himself at McLaren he'd (maybe) have won a title in 2007 and probably in 2008 and certainly in 2012 (McLaren had the best car).
So, onto Monza - whose going to win?
Early prediction:
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Hamilton/Kimi
Isn't it strange that Webber, even in the best car, has a "problem" in virtually every single race, which puts him behind at the start. He then spends the entire race playing catchup (showing terrific speed), but is beaten by slower cars. This happens in virtually every race.
Once Pirelli made the tyres more durable, RBR drivers were able to unleash the full speed of the car and the rest were history.
The only reason why Lotus and Ferrari did so well at the start of the season was because their cars were the kindest to the tyres.
I've said this all along, before the season start, that I simply can't see anyone other than Vettel winning the title this year and I see no reason to change that opinion.
Next year, I think the title race will be between Hamilton and Vettel and I'm not so confident installing Vettel as 2014 title favourite (as I was in 2013).
As for Alonso, its painful seeing the best driver in F1, not winning any titles. I actually think that from a sporting perspective its unfair. I like to see the best player in a sport, win. Had Alonso behaved himself at McLaren he'd (maybe) have won a title in 2007 and probably in 2008 and certainly in 2012 (McLaren had the best car).
So, onto Monza - whose going to win?
Early prediction:
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Hamilton/Kimi
Isn't it strange that Webber, even in the best car, has a "problem" in virtually every single race, which puts him behind at the start. He then spends the entire race playing catchup (showing terrific speed), but is beaten by slower cars. This happens in virtually every race.
Soldato
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Me thinks Ferrari will do well in the race tomorrow. They have got good top speed, so if Alonso has a good start or qualifies well today, he should get a 1st or 2nd.
You could be right. Alonso has consistently moved up the field this season. He seems most able to gain places from his qualifying position and being at Ferrari's home Grand Prix, might push him on a bit. I just hope Lewis can make a podium.
I think that too, I cannot see anything else but this being lotus' last good season, if they don't get into the top 3 this year they never will
Also think that a two tier system is naturally forming. Behind the top 3 I think spending is just going to go down.
It's getting harder and harder to watch when you really believe that your teams best results are behind you
I don't blame kimi, lotus are a big risk and could just pull out anytime, which would definitely make me a casual watcher
The thing is Sparky, it's nothing against you or RBR as a team.
If Webber started winning again we'd all be very happy.
Just bored of Vettel winning everything!
Funniest thing is, he is such a nice guy.
I would love a cape on spending but unless every team gives the fia their account books it's a no go.
To me the only way to stop all this is to do away with so much aero and every team has the same front and rear wing and floor.
Give the car back to the driver. Then we will see more great drivers and less paid drivers.
You haven't seen much of GP2 recently have you? Pay drivers are as big in that as they are in F1. Even if you go right down to something like BTCC its still all about money.
Cutting the aero bill wont mean the teams suddenly spend less money. They will just spend the same money elsewhere.
I'd rather see the pinnacle of motorsport and engineering, not GP2
"pinnacle of motorsport" you say! with the worst tires in racing. It's not the pinnacle of motorsport any more I'm afraid.