With a rainy race, could Schumi be a dark horse
Unless they can dramatically increase the performance of the car, I can't see how he can win the race (barring extraordinary events). The last race was wet and during the damp/wet/early part of the race, he did nothing special, while Alonso was scything through the field.
I agree that in his time, MS was arguably the best wet weather driver, but this is 2010, where he has to compete against Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso - who aren't bad in the wet. Also, given that he is unable to beat his own team-mate, we have to assume that the 2010 MS does not have the same skills as the 2004 MS.
Based on the above, I can't see MS winning.