Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
Soldato
- Joined
- 3 Mar 2006
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- 3,233
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- Atcham, Shropshire
How many bets a day are you doing?
Caporegime
- Joined
- 1 Dec 2010
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- 53,735
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- Welling, London
About 30 on average.
Soldato
- Joined
- 3 Mar 2006
- Posts
- 3,233
- Location
- Atcham, Shropshire
Are you doing it on your own or using a website to help? What kind of offers are you using? Some seem to be a bit too much work.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 1 Dec 2010
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- 53,735
- Location
- Welling, London
I use yes bets and did a lot of 2nd place refunds and fallers insurance.
That's a shame.....keep the cash out and cut loose.
Betfred as a business are absolutely shameful, some of the worst CS and website availability I have ever witnessed.
Quick question, bet365 ask for your address history (previous address if you haven't lived somewhere for 3 years) when signing up, normally a company only does this when they run a credit check.
Is this the case? Seems strange they'd need to do that
Is this the case? Seems strange they'd need to do that
YesBets newbie
Signed up and opened a coral and betfair accs. When doing the free £5 bets after qualifying when choosing your bet on the yesbets list then going to the coral or betfair sometimes the odds different to what yesbets list them (do I manually change them.
How far can I go on the free yes bets accounts
Signed up and opened a coral and betfair accs. When doing the free £5 bets after qualifying when choosing your bet on the yesbets list then going to the coral or betfair sometimes the odds different to what yesbets list them (do I manually change them.
How far can I go on the free yes bets accounts
Does anybody alter their laying ratio if the bet is a long shot?
I'm thinking of doing a calculator that decides, using a table to choose the thresholds per sport / bet type, how risky a choice at the bookies is and calculating the lay to break even at the bookies should the long shot win but make more if not.
Without modelling it all properly and going back over my betting history to test, I'm guessing that in the long run you'd make more money?
I'm thinking of doing a calculator that decides, using a table to choose the thresholds per sport / bet type, how risky a choice at the bookies is and calculating the lay to break even at the bookies should the long shot win but make more if not.
Without modelling it all properly and going back over my betting history to test, I'm guessing that in the long run you'd make more money?
Thanks, looks like the mare was a non runner- checked my ladbrokes account and free bet still there- yes bets online chat very helpful.
So if you're talking about a normal qualifying matched bet, where you're likely to lose a little no matter the result, you can't both break even at the bookies and win more at the exchange. You can over or underlay but it improves one side and not the other, so if both sides start as a qualifying loss position then you can't make them both go up into neutral or positive.
If you're talking about a free bet then they both start as positive so you can overlay to break even at the bookies if your long shot wins but you gain little at the exchange for doing so.
The maths isn't exact here but it's close. If you have back and lay odds of £20 on a 20/1 long shot, with a SNR free bet your optimum position is probably £18.50 no matter what. Overlay to break even if the bookie wins and if it loses you're probably making £19.50 at the exchange - a pound more than locking in your £18.50. The extra reward doesn't seem worth it when you can lock in a decent profit. From a mathematical view point, unless you can find arbs equivalents on every free bet, the non matching odds and commission at the exchange will mean your idea is less profitable in the long run.
The calculators already exist to calculate an overlay. The one at tricky bet is quite good to use its advanced slider to see the positions at various states of lay: http://www.trickybet.net/lay-calculator
Most bookmakers will do a 'soft search' just to check your address and make sure you don't have previous accounts. Won't touch your file but it'll show up as a record search. Generally for anti-laundering reasons.
It's more the little bets i do to keep activity on my accounts.
So last night there was a horse at 19s at the bookies and 16.5 on the exchange. The calculator gave me the stake to win an even amount on either result.
I calculated myself so that i broke even if the horse won (unlikely at 19) but made a bit more on the exchange win.
Sure enough the horse came nowhere so i made a bit more than if I'd laid to "de-risk" my return.
Over time i think you'd make more money off those little return mug bets than always balancing the return on if you are backing long odds at the bookies.
As it happens on the scenario above, the odds on the exchange dropped to 11 as i bet on the bookies site, so i made a killing!
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Deleted member 66701
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Deleted member 66701
Those aren't mug bets though - you're taking too much value.
Make a few of those regularly and the bookie will ban your account.
So @amigafan2003 makes a good point - bookies will cotton on
But that aside, what stops you from extending your theory the 18/1 shot won't win? Why not just lay the horse without backing it - it'll never win right?