Soldato
Is anyone still doing this? If so - which sites are you using to help?
Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
Some offers around for Cheltenham etc but in reality the good days are gone - Unless you are deadly serious about it - the easy money is long gone now. Not saying there isn't still money to be made but in reality it's harder and harder now.
Check the usual places:
https://www.profitaccumulator.co.uk/what-is-matched-betting/
https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/lander/
https://matchedbettingblog.com/matched-betting-guide/
I made about £4500 after 9 months. The accounts get restricted pretty quick for the smaller bookies the big brand names not so much so.
The main thing I found is that you will make more if you don't lay the bets off in the long term. I got a bit suspiocious when I noticed that 2 of the exchanges seem to sponsor most of the matched betting sites, I checked my P&L at the exchanges and found I had lost at every one, around £1500 in total, meaning I would have made £6000 without laying the bets. All the profit comes from the free bets and bonuses and because you are picking the bets carefully, at best odds your bets are making a small profit in the long term.
The main thing I found is that you will make more if you don't lay the bets off in the long term. I got a bit suspiocious when I noticed that 2 of the exchanges seem to sponsor most of the matched betting sites, I checked my P&L at the exchanges and found I had lost at every one, around £1500 in total, meaning I would have made £6000 without laying the bets. All the profit comes from the free bets and bonuses and because you are picking the bets carefully, at best odds your bets are making a small profit in the long term.
That is right, as (i) if you don't lay off you don't have to pay the commission at the exchange, and (ii) you're generally betting into shortening odds, so over time you tend to win at bookie and lose at exchange. But if you're not going to lay off then you need a big bankroll to ride out the variations, as you'll inevitably go on bad runs at the bookie. It's a much higher risk approach.
Yup, you're taking value from the bookies by virtue of there being a free bet*. Both sides should usually be -EV because of vig, commissions etc.. but the presence of the free bet makes things +EV at the bookies, matching at the exchanges is basically just hedging/reducing variance and there is a cost to doing that.
The second part doesn't matter, all that matters is that the activity at the exchange is generally -EV because exchanges tend to be efficiently priced and so assuming the mid-price is fair, you crossing the spread + paying commission makes things -EV for any given bet/trade there on average.**
There was a guy in the thread earlier (amigafan IIRC) who used to BS that he had a way to structure his bets to make sure he won at the exchanges, if anyone had a way to get a net positive balance at the exchange then they'd not need matched betting in the first place and could ignore having to wait for free bets/promos and simply carry on doing whatever they're doing at the exchanges.
(*Sometimes there are also arbitrage situations and inevitably these involve some bookies being generously priced or mispriced relative to the rest of the market so make the bet at the bookies +EV regardless of the free bet. It's not necessarily a good idea to take advantage of these if you want to keep your account for long at most bookies)
(**Of course if you're an expert handicapper then there might well be times where the exchange isn't fairly priced and you can profit, which in turn helps bring prices back into line)
I wish I could lose every bet at the bookies and win at the exchange then my accounts would last a lot longer. I am pretty sure though that sadly it's not possible.
Well, people do make money trading/betting at exchanges so I guess it's not impossible just hard to do else everyone would be doing it... though you don't need matched betting or bookies if you're able to make money at the exchanges.
Soldato
I did matched betting from 2016 to 2020 approx.
The whole point of matched betting is its meant to be risk free or at minimum low risk. Not laying off your bets may be more EV+ but it is stupid because if you're starting with a small amount like I did you'll likely lose before you even get going.
My spreadsheet I used for the whole time I was matched betting, every bet and lay logged, tells me I made a profit of £2k overall on the exchanges, not a loss.
What that tells you is the volatility is massive - not laying is a bad idea.
BTW nearly half my profit was casino offers, and I didn't take risk there either.
The whole point of matched betting is its meant to be risk free or at minimum low risk. Not laying off your bets may be more EV+ but it is stupid because if you're starting with a small amount like I did you'll likely lose before you even get going.
My spreadsheet I used for the whole time I was matched betting, every bet and lay logged, tells me I made a profit of £2k overall on the exchanges, not a loss.
What that tells you is the volatility is massive - not laying is a bad idea.
BTW nearly half my profit was casino offers, and I didn't take risk there either.
Soldato
Wouldn't make much difference because they don't care if you win or not, they care about laying off your bets and so they only care about close odds. If you're taking value odds you'll get restricted.
Not many bookies will restrict profitable customers, it makes no business sense at all. If you are constantly withdrawing and not depositing you will get restricted, makes no difference to them whatsoever if you are laying the bets.
Soldato
The many many matched betters I heard of who get restricted after just one losing bet says otherwise.
I was just watching one of Caan Berry's videos and he mentioned Football Index, I remembered the name and was pretty sure I was skeptical of this firm in reply to an OCUK poster a few years back, sure enough:
www.theguardian.com
Football Index executives were warned model was ‘unsustainable’ after launch
A former Football Index employee has said the betting site’s executives ‘were fully aware there was a problem’ soon after its launch in 2015 according to emails seen by the Guardian
www.theguardian.com
Whose £200 did you take?
Theirs. It was a matched thing, deposit and play £100 and they'd match it, so I did this on two accounts and then cashed out. Easiest £200 I ever made tbh.
They'd be matching your £100 with £100 others had deposited. You took a small brick from the pyramid.
I don't particularly care where it came from.
Apparently not.
Why would I?
That's something for you to think about.