NVIDIA 4000 Series

[Gerard]

Nvidia and AMD pushing back Blackwell and RDNA4 was perfectly timed for both launches!

It would have been nice for both to launch before deciding.

Did rdna 4 or Blackwell ever have launch dates? I don't recall seeing any. All I remember about rdna 4 was the usual suspects claiming it would be here in september or october, then when that came and went they then claimed it had been delayed.

All the usual pish from supposed 'leakers' who change their story by the minute. So there's really nothing to legitimately say either of those have been delayed.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Did rdna 4 or Blackwell ever have launch dates? I don't recall seeing any. All I remember about rdna 4 was the usual suspects claiming it would be here in september or october, then when that came and went they then claimed it had been delayed.

All the usual pish from supposed 'leakers' who change their story by the minute. So there's really nothing to legitimately say either of those have been delayed.

If you look at past cadences,Nvidia and AMD would have launched something by now. Nvidia usually launches its new generation between September and October. That was the cadence for the GTX900,RTX2000,RTX3000 and RTX4000 series. Only the GTX1000 series broke that cadence,but the GTX1080 launched under two years later compared to the GTX980. The RX7900XTX and RX6900XT launched just after.

So they have been pushed back and are going to miss the best time of year for GPU sales and walk straight into the Trump tariffs.

People haven't realised Trump doesn't just want to tariff China,he wants to use it to get concessions from Canada,Mexico and many other countries.

 

[Gerard]

If you look at past cadences,Nvidia and AMD would have launched something by now. Nvidia usually launches its new generation between September and October. That was the cadence for the GTX900,RTX2000,RTX3000 and RTX4000 series. Only the GTX1000 series broke that cadence,but the GTX1080 launched under two years later compared to the GTX980. The RX7900XTX and RX6900XT launched just after.

So they have been pushed back and are going to miss the best time of year for GPU sales.

Past cadence doesn't always indicate what they do these days, and claiming they're been pushed back because some random supposed leakers saying so is not even remotely credible at all. Radeon vii came at an odd launch time for amd, that being in February, rdna 4 could be something similar.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Past cadence doesn't always indicate what they do these days, and claiming they're been pushed back because some random supposed leakers saying so is not even remotely credible at all. Radeon vii came at an odd launch time for amd, that being in February, rdna 4 could be something similar.

Some of those leakers have a great track record - they are not MLID. Vega20 was launched in November 2018 for commercial cards,so it hit the same cadence as previous large AMD dGPUs. It was never really a consumer dGPU,just re-purposed later on. Large RDNA2 came 21 months later.

If past cadence wasn't followed that is by definition a delay. One of the reasons Blackwell is delayed is because GDDR7 production was pushed back and those leakers did cover it:

GDDR7 Graphics Memory: SK Hynix Delays Mass Production Until Q1 2025

The competition among memory manufacturers to advance GDDR7 graphics memory into mass production is intensifying. Samsung and Micron aim to launch GDDR7 chips in Q4 2024, while SK Hynix has announced at Computex 2024 that it plans to begin mass production in the first quarter of 2025.

www.guru3d.com

Samsung and Micron have launched GDDR7 late this quarter. SK Hynix is Q1 2025. There was also a flaw in the commercial Blackwell chips which needed fixing:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overheating-issue-could-delay-nvidias-213003375.html

Also looking at the cadence(first new release):
1.)RTX4090 - October 12th, 2022
2.)RTX3090 - September 24th, 2020
3.)RTX2080TI - December 18th, 2018
4.)Titan V - December 7th, 2017
4.)Pascal Titan - August 2, 2016
4.)GTX1080 - May 27th 2016
5.)GTX980 - September 18, 2014

Time between generations:
1.)Ampere to Ada Lovelace - 24 to 25 months. Was delayed one month.
2.)Turing to Ampere - 21 months
3.)Volta to Turing - 12 months
4.)Pascal to Volta - 14 months
5.)Pascal to Turing - 27 months. Smaller Volta cancelled.
6.)Maxwell to Pascal - 20 to 23 months

In the last decade,Nvidia refreshed ranges within 24 months.So far Ada Lovelace to Blackwell if launched next month,will be 27 months.But next month might be a reveal at CES,not a launch so it could be even longer. That will be the longest wait for a decade. Even the Pascal to Turing timing had one Volta card launch. So sure you can go with it not being delayed. I don't agree.

AMD,OTH is using an old TSMC 4N process and GDDR6. Instead of exploiting the Nvidia delay,as usual they are launching as close as possible to Nvidia IMHO,so they can price as high as possible.So AMD as usual will delay and delay,right until Nvidia launches Blackwell,which will steal it's thunder next month. I wouldn't be surprised if the RTX5070 ends up appearing soon afterwards.

 

[Grim5]

Blackwell must be soon given we've seen one or two companies trying to already advertise it

 

[Gerard]

So sure you can go with it not being delayed. I don't agree.

That's fine, as there's no release date imo there's no delay. If anything at this minute they're likely building up stock for a release in the first few months of next year.

People were just hyped for rnda4 and the alleged September or October release date that leakers were bandying about like it was fact, then got butthurt when it wasn't the case like the date that random "leaker" online mentioned was somehow set in stone. I remember a few on here raging about it like the leaker crap was some official AMD announcement.

 

[Emlyn_Dewar]

Nonsense. The tariffs will mean less demand in the US, which means more supply in the rest of the world. More supply means lower prices.

Needed that comedy this morning.