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NVIDIA 4000 Series

Gypsum Fantastic said:
The slippery slope fallacy is just that. A fallacy, and not a proper argument. The situation now is on the outskirts of tolerable, and worth the money to me personally. Beyond that, neither of us can speak to the future, but I don't see GPUs going significantly up in price in the future for a number of reasons.

This generation was designed and built on the assumption that mining would still be a thing. That people would pay whatever because of supply and demand. I predict a lot of 4090s left on shelves come Christmas, and that the prices will drop next year. I still believe this sort of GPU pricing to be a blip — one that will normalise to more sensible pricing in future once mining is fully out of the equation (IE not present during the design phase). And I think NVIDIA will be looking more to value for money for the next generation after Ada because this generation is going to be a disaster for them. All that 30-series stock still in the wind. Literally 20 million GPUs being sold by miners on the second-hand market.

Yeah, the pricing now is hard to swallow, but when you look at the contributing factors to said pricing, you realise it's a anomaly, not a direction of travel.
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I will just quote CEO of NVIDIA here, so we have a proper context: "The idea that a chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past. First of all, a 12-inch wafer is a lot more expensive today than what it was yesterday. And it’s not a little bit more expensive, it’s a ton more expensive. Moore’s Law is dead. And the ability for Moore’s Law to deliver twice the performance at the same cost, or at the same performance half the cost every year-and-a-half, is over. It’s completely over.”.

Now, we have a clear image of what NVIDIA is trying to do here, I believe. The fallacy that you mentioned, is a reality from their point of view. From now on, things will get only more expensive, IF things will go their way. Us, as consumers, should make sure they won't - as it's for our own good. Otherwise, they will suck us dry over time, just because they think they can.
 
Jensen is right, he just failed to explain his position by answering as if he's talking to 12 year olds.

The price of high end chips are not going down, just take a look at TSMC's pricing schedule - you can't manufacture the same size wafer on 5nm and expect it to be cheaper than 12nm, it ain't happening. This used to happen in the past, not only were smaller node processes smaller and more efficient but they were also cheaper to use.

We're just talking about the silicon here, one of many costs that go into a GPU and just cause the silicon cost has gone up doesn't mean the GPU needs to. Nvidia is purposefully designing the X pensive GPUs, it doesn't need to and it's purposefully trying to make very high margins and these things have a greater impact on GPU prices than the cost making a smaller transistor.



 
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Grim5 said:
Jensen is right, he just failed to explain his position by answering as if he's talking to 12 year olds.

The price of high end chips are not going down, just take a look at TSMC's pricing schedule - you can't manufacture the same size wafer on 5nm and expect it to be cheaper than 12nm, it ain't happening. This used to happen in the past, not only were smaller node processes smaller and more efficient but they were also cheaper to use.

We're just talking about the silicon here, one of many costs that go into a GPU and just cause the silicon cost has gone up doesn't mean the GPU needs to. Nvidia is purposefully designing the X pensive GPUs, it doesn't need to and it's purposefully trying to make very high margins and these things have a greater impact on GPU prices than the cost making a smaller transistor.



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I found a image showed cost per gates on 10nm and 7nm.

CsnEK2i.png

Cant find details about cost for 6nm, 5nm, 4nm and 3nm but found a image showed what TSMC cost per wafer and chip.

nfij8ob.jpg

5nm wafer is really very expensive at $16,988 each.
 
Joxeon said:
That's what people said when the 2080ti came out and now we're almost double that in just 4 years, so long as people keep buying them Nvidia will keep raising the price. 4 years from now they will likely be 3k and we'll have people on here trying to rationalise the cost by saying it's only £4 a day which is a sandwich and a cuppa from Gregs etc.
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Again. Slippery slope fallacy. I don't buy it. At all. And don't forget, my reply was to someone insisting these GPUs are going to be £3,000 by NEXT WEDNESDAY.
 
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Tinek said:
I will just quote CEO of NVIDIA here...
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Because CEO's have always been 100% truthful and can always be taken at their word, when they say their new card is 2-4x faster than previous gen they really mean it and there's no need for independent reviews. :p
Gypsum Fantastic said:
Again. Slippery slope fallacy. I don't buy it. At all. And don't forget, my reply was to someone insisting these GPUs are going to be £3,000 by NEXT WEDNESDAY.
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Only it's not a slippery slope fallacy because there's nothing fallacious about it, there's good evidence that the slippery slope is real.
 
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the future though doesnt look exciting, maybe a move to cloud gaming

www.techpowerup.com

ASML CTO Expects Post High-NA Lithography to be Prohibitively Costly

In an interview with Bits & Chips, ASML's CTO Martin van den Brink said that he believes that we might be reaching the end of the road for current semiconductor lithography technology in the not so distant future. However, for the time being, ASML is executing on its roadmap and after EUV, the...
www.techpowerup.com www.techpowerup.com
high-NA machines that are expected to go into production by 2025 (perhaps 2027) will be 2x the cost of current EUV printers.. so maybe by 2030-32 process gains would start to stagnate
though IHVs could figure out a workable multi chip solution to tide over things, but multi chip will inherently stop scaling beyond certain levels, due to bad energy response
 
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Murphy said:
Because CEO's have always been 100% truthful and can always be taken at their word, when they say their new card is 2-4x faster than previous gen they really mean it and there's no need for independent reviews. :p

Only it's not a slippery slope fallacy because there's nothing fallacious about it, we can see the logic and reason behind it with our own two eyes.
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It absolutely is a logical fallacy. That a pocketed direction of travel will continue indefinitely into the future. It's never true. Just look at the crypto-bros who sold their houses to buy Bitcoin. The world doesn't function that way. And markets do not especially. What is more often true is regression to the mean. And that's what we'll be seeing over the next several years.

You can't sell products no one can afford and we are at the ragged edge of that right now. And as I said previously, I think NVIDIA is going to learn a painful lesson this generation. The ONLY reason pricing is so high for the 4080/4070-level cards is that there are literally tens of millions of 30-series cards they can't sell. That's it. That's why. It's an isolated incident resultant of a collapsing crypto-mining market. Or, if you want to put it another way, NVIDIA believing in a slippery slope fallacy: That a pocketed direction of travel will continue indefinitely into the future. And of course it was wrong.

But again, apart from all that, my original point was made to someone stating categorically that 4090s would cost £3,000 by next week. And people are coming back at me with 'THEY WILL BE £3,000 IN 4 YEARS'. I mean, they won't be, but unless you want to state your case for why they will be by next Wednesday, you're arguing against points that were never made in the first place.
 
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It absolutely is not, that is unless you can show me that GPU prices have historically been decreasing in price.

IDK what crypto-bros, how the world functions, markets, regression to the mean or any of that other stuff you said has to do with whether the slippery slope argument is being used fallaciously or not.

Also, and the person who said it is more than welcome to correct me, the "that 4090s would cost £3,000 by next week" claim was intentional hyperbole used to make a point, it wasn't meant to be taken literally AFAICT.
 
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Murphy said:
It absolutely is not, that is unless you can show me that GPU prices have historically been decreasing in price.

IDK what crypto-bros, how the world functions, markets, regression to the mean or any of that other stuff you said has to do with whether the slippery slope argument is being used fallaciously or not.

Also, and the person who said it is more than welcome to correct me, the "that 4090s would cost £3,000 by next week" claim was intentional hyperbole used to make a point, it wasn't meant to be taken literally AFAICT.
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He was serious, and doubled down on it.

It's fine. You believe what you want to believe.
 
An apology is in order as i jumped in a bit latter in the thread and missed what i assume is the post you're referring to, this one?
Raiden85 said:
By the time they are released they will be nearing £3000+ I pretty much guarantee it.
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If so my apologise as that does seem more literal than hyperbole, sorry. :)

I had incorrectly assumed we were talking about the general trend of GPU's costing more each generation.
 
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Nvidia has released benchmarks for Overwatch 2

This is average FPS at 2560x1440p max settings.

Using the RTX3080 as a base, the rtx4080 12gb is 19% faster than the 3080. The 4080 16gb is 47% faster. And the rtx4090 is 105% faster than the RTX3080



www.nvidia.com

Overwatch 2: GeForce RTX 40 Series GPUs with NVIDIA Reflex reach 360+ FPS, 1440p

New 600 FPS frame rate cap and system latency as low as 8 milliseconds thanks to the unbelievable performance of GeForce RTX graphics cards, and the magic of NVIDIA Reflex.
www.nvidia.com
 
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