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Nvidia CPU's? Nvidia is looking at a takeover bid for ARM

Caporegime
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Anyway, if Nvidia ends up buying ARM one thing is certain, they're about to enter the desktop/laptop SoC market.

Exactly what is the logic there? Nvidia has made ARM based cores in Tegra for like a decade now, they already have access to all IP ARM make and they won't have access to it faster than now if they buy them. They can delay how fast other people get access to the IP compared to now and give themselves an advantage in time to market but it won't fundamentally change anything. ARM puts their designs primarily into power saving and efficiency. The reason that in general x86 cores being made today are so much larger and use so much more power is the amount of extra core logic it takes to feed a cpu without major stalls at 4Ghz and there is a reason ARM chips don't scale anywhere near that kind of clock speed, it would be exceptionally wasteful as so many clocks would be idle waiting on data.

So owning ARM or having access to ARM chips now makes effectively no difference. If they push ARM to make a brand new ultra high speed ARM architecture then you're talking about being probably 3+ years out from a first chip and probably 2-3 gens of iteration before it might be genuinely competitive. If ARM suddenly push in a very new direction it would very likely hurt them in taking away resources from improving lower clock higher efficiency designs.

RIght off the bat I don't entirely know what Nvidia's goal would be if they bought them, probably more than anything trying to diversify out of just graphics. If they **** up with graphics or get locked out of production by others and run into problems then having the income from ARM would be a life saver and if they can replace mali graphics with Nvidia the way AMD got into Samsung they might be able to win a bunch of sales there. It could almost be seen as a counter move to what AMD did. IF Samsung chips do excellently with AMD graphics get licensed to more mobile chip makers they could corner the market and bring in a lot of extra money to help them fight against Nvidia in desktop. This would make it very easy to push Nvidia graphics with standard ARM cores.
 
Soldato
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Exactly what is the logic there? Nvidia has made ARM based cores in Tegra for like a decade now, they already have access to all IP ARM make and they won't have access to it faster than now if they buy them. They can delay how fast other people get access to the IP compared to now and give themselves an advantage in time to market but it won't fundamentally change anything. ARM puts their designs primarily into power saving and efficiency. The reason that in general x86 cores being made today are so much larger and use so much more power is the amount of extra core logic it takes to feed a cpu without major stalls at 4Ghz and there is a reason ARM chips don't scale anywhere near that kind of clock speed, it would be exceptionally wasteful as so many clocks would be idle waiting on data.

So owning ARM or having access to ARM chips now makes effectively no difference. If they push ARM to make a brand new ultra high speed ARM architecture then you're talking about being probably 3+ years out from a first chip and probably 2-3 gens of iteration before it might be genuinely competitive. If ARM suddenly push in a very new direction it would very likely hurt them in taking away resources from improving lower clock higher efficiency designs.

RIght off the bat I don't entirely know what Nvidia's goal would be if they bought them, probably more than anything trying to diversify out of just graphics. If they **** up with graphics or get locked out of production by others and run into problems then having the income from ARM would be a life saver and if they can replace mali graphics with Nvidia the way AMD got into Samsung they might be able to win a bunch of sales there. It could almost be seen as a counter move to what AMD did. IF Samsung chips do excellently with AMD graphics get licensed to more mobile chip makers they could corner the market and bring in a lot of extra money to help them fight against Nvidia in desktop. This would make it very easy to push Nvidia graphics with standard ARM cores.

Tegra SoCs were generic ARM CPU cores attached to Nvidia GPUs. If ARM were right now producing what Nvidia needed, they wouldn’t be interested in buying ARM. Nvidia buying ARM 100%, without shadow of a doubt, means they want to push ARM in a new direction, at least partly.

As for the whole “x86 is so much more powerful than aarch64 so they can’t compete anytime soon”, that was true 10 years ago. A decade of slow progress and at times pure stagnation on x86 and massive improvements to ARM has shown that while there still is a gap, it’s a lot narrower than can be dismissed with blanked statements from decades-old common knowledge.

Anyway, going by your own estimation, 3 years is pretty short term.
 
Soldato
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Then eventually,more and more companies will go RISC V. One would be to escape Nvidia trying to ring them for every penny,and two for export reasons,as RISC V is open source,and they don't need to ask for export permissions.

Yeah. I don’t think Nvidia minds that at all. Exclusivity is their thing.
 
Soldato
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Yeah. I don’t think Nvidia minds that at all. Exclusivity is their thing.

But it will eventually make ARM more niche. Apple has a ton of sway in the US,so not sure whether Nvidia can become more cocky with them. They have nearly $250 billion in free cash. Samsung could design its own cores,and is using RDNA on its latest SOCs. I also think about the Chinese companies such as HiSilicon,Rockchip and MediaTek,will also move to other uarchs,because even if ARM is kept as a "UK based subsidiary",Nvidia will can be lent on during any disputes.Qualcomm are the ones in the biggest bind here,but again have a lot of important cellular patents,etc.

Edit!!

Honestly,the UK government should have kept ARM independent instead of being swallowed up by another large company. In the end,I can see it slowly moving ebbing away,if Nvidia and others start mucking around with the existing model.
 
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Soldato
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But it will eventually make ARM more niche. Apple has a ton of sway in the US,so not sure whether Nvidia can become more cocky with them. They have nearly $250 billion in free cash. Samsung could design its own cores,and is using RDNA on its latest SOCs. I also think about the Chinese companies such as Mediatek and Huawei,will also move to other uarchs,because even if ARM is kept as a "UK based subsidiary",Nvidia will can be lent on during any disputes.Qualcomm are the ones in the biggest bind here,but again have a lot of important cellular patents,etc.

ARM’s current business model doesn’t make a lot of cash, so Nvidia buying ARM and keeping it as-is isn’t going to happen. This is a strategic acquisition with a goal in mind (which we can speculate on as I did, but we can’t be sure).

In the medium to longer term, this would 100% mean that the likes of Samsung, Qualcomm, Mediatek and others will at least look into alternatives and this will catalyst the development of RISC-V and other open source ISAs and uarchs.

Nvidia isn’t exactly known to play nice with others. Them owning ARM, they will shake things up!
 
Soldato
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ARM’s current business model doesn’t make a lot of cash, so Nvidia buying ARM and keeping it as-is isn’t going to happen. This is a strategic acquisition with a goal in mind (which we can speculate on as I did, but we can’t be sure).

In the medium to longer term, this would 100% mean that the likes of Samsung, Qualcomm, Mediatek and others will at least look into alternatives and this will catalyst the development of RISC-V and other open source ISAs and uarchs.

Nvidia isn’t exactly known to play nice with others. Them owning ARM, they will shake things up!

I know the EU and Indian national processor intiatives are RISC-V based. India is trying to design RISC-V based processors for use as microcontroller,and in mobile devices.
 
Soldato
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I know the EU and Indian national processor intiatives are RISC-V based. India is trying to design RISC-V based processors for use as microcontroller,and in mobile devices.

RISC-V definitely has the potential to become very competitive. The unique customisability capabilities alone is very useful.

I think we’re entering a new era of ISA competition which may last a decade or more. Unlike the past though, we’re a lot better equipped at going multi-architecture with software designs, so the experience to the consumer can be pretty seamless.
 
Soldato
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RISC-V definitely has the potential to become very competitive. The unique customisability capabilities alone is very useful.

I think we’re entering a new era of ISA competition which may last a decade or more. Unlike the past though, we’re a lot better equipped at going multi-architecture with software designs, so the experience to the consumer can be pretty seamless.

Everyone is trying to design their own SOCs,and we just allowed the two companies we had which did it well,to be bought by other countries. At this rate we will selling the rights to walk on our own pavements to other countries! :rolleyes:

Can you imagine the US allowing Intel to be sold off to foreign companies,or SK doing the same for Samsung?? Fujitsu in Japan??
 
Soldato
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[/QUOTE[/QUOTE]
Everyone is trying to design their own SOCs,and we just allowed the two companies we had which did it well,to be bought by other countries. At this rate we will selling the rights to walk on our own pavements to other countries! :rolleyes:

Can you imagine the US allowing Intel to be sold off to foreign companies,or SK doing the same for Samsung?? Fujitsu in Japan??

We can always make more of these companies /s
 
Man of Honour
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They can delay how fast other people get access to the IP compared to now and give themselves an advantage in time to market but it won't fundamentally change anything.

A lot of ARM's value is in becoming ubiquitous - driving a wide range of products and brands, being the answer in a wide range of devices and embedded systems, etc. - I can't see even nVidia buying them to control how fast other people can develop products on it.
 
Caporegime
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Tegra SoCs were generic ARM CPU cores attached to Nvidia GPUs. If ARM were right now producing what Nvidia needed, they wouldn’t be interested in buying ARM. Nvidia buying ARM 100%, without shadow of a doubt, means they want to push ARM in a new direction, at least partly.

As for the whole “x86 is so much more powerful than aarch64 so they can’t compete anytime soon”, that was true 10 years ago. A decade of slow progress and at times pure stagnation on x86 and massive improvements to ARM has shown that while there still is a gap, it’s a lot narrower than can be dismissed with blanked statements from decades-old common knowledge.

Anyway, going by your own estimation, 3 years is pretty short term.

On the first part, ARM has increased in value from 32 to 55billion, there are LOTS more reasons to want ARM than wanting them to make a desktop architecture.

On the second part I didn't say x86 was more powerful than aarch64 anywhere. What I said was in general x86 cores (not architecture) have been designed with top speeds in mind for decades and all optimisation is to that and all existing ARM cores (not architecture) has been utilised on chips that forgo loads of core logic x86 designs current have to feed and predict data to chips at significantly higher speeds. No one has made ARM chips for high speed yet, no one will hit it out the park on the first design, it will take iterations of those kinds of chips to get good.

As for the last part, 3 years is going to be how long it would take ARM to bring out an ARM IP for higher speed, it would be a further 2 years before Nvidia actually launched a chip using it most likely and it would be that first iteration against x86 chips that by and large have been iterating that high speed core logic for 20 years and will continue to make architecture improvements in that 5 year time period as well.

ARM would also need to actually hire people and dedicate resources to it and in doing so would take resources away from all of their existing IP improvements. It takes time to change course and to keep the value of ARM soaring they would really want to keep things going as they are making all the normal improvements to all their existing IP lines. I'd actually say it would take a reasonable amount of time to hire more people, then a few years to make an architecture, then a couple years to make the first chips based off it and they won't be competitive till several iterations into it. It could easily be a decade before they had a competitive high speed chip.
 
Soldato
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On the first part, ARM has increased in value from 32 to 55billion, there are LOTS more reasons to want ARM than wanting them to make a desktop architecture.

Not sure how their valuation has anything to do with anything.

On the second part I didn't say x86 was more powerful than aarch64 anywhere. What I said was in general x86 cores (not architecture) have been designed with top speeds in mind for decades and all optimisation is to that and all existing ARM cores (not architecture) has been utilised on chips that forgo loads of core logic x86 designs current have to feed and predict data to chips at significantly higher speeds. No one has made ARM chips for high speed yet, no one will hit it out the park on the first design, it will take iterations of those kinds of chips to get good.

What are you going on about? Nobody claimed otherwise. Although Fujitsu and Apple would disagree but they're custom ARM designs so not relevant to Nvidia's acquisition.

As for the last part, 3 years is going to be how long it would take ARM to bring out an ARM IP for higher speed, it would be a further 2 years before Nvidia actually launched a chip using it most likely and it would be that first iteration against x86 chips that by and large have been iterating that high speed core logic for 20 years and will continue to make architecture improvements in that 5 year time period as well.

This again comes from the assumption that the gap is so huge that it takes a decade to catch up, but the catching up has happened in the last decade for the most part. Top x86 IPC has improved about 1.5x over the last 10 years, top ARM IPC has improved over 75x in the last 10 years and continues to have ~20% IPC improvement year-on-year, every single year. At some point these will catch up, and some can argue that they've already caught up (in the case of Apple which is about 3 years ahead of generic ARM).

As you say, x86 has been iterating for top speed logic for 20 years, which is partly true, but they just haven't done much. They had a huge gap (fastest x86 core was more than 150x faster than fastest ARM core just 15 years ago), and it just isn't anywhere near as big as it used to be.

It was always pretty obvious that x86 commitment to compatibility (x86 chips can run 40-year-old binaries) will cost them in efficiency and will slow down progress, as it has happened in the last decade. People unconstrained by this (like ARM) will have a much easier time improving their designs and moving ahead, as we've seen recently.

ARM would also need to actually hire people and dedicate resources to it and in doing so would take resources away from all of their existing IP improvements. It takes time to change course and to keep the value of ARM soaring they would really want to keep things going as they are making all the normal improvements to all their existing IP lines. I'd actually say it would take a reasonable amount of time to hire more people, then a few years to make an architecture, then a couple years to make the first chips based off it and they won't be competitive till several iterations into it. It could easily be a decade before they had a competitive high speed chip.

Yeah? Nvidia won't buy ARM to "keep the value of ARM soaring", they buy it to integrate it into their systems and to use their tech for their own advantage. Nvidia isn't Softbank, they're not buying ARM for its portfolio value, they're buying it because they want to build products with their IP and talent, products that don't currently exist and won't exist without this acquisition.
 
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Caporegime
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Not sure how their valuation has anything to do with anything.



What are you going on about? Nobody claimed otherwise. Although Fujitsu and Apple would disagree but they're custom ARM designs so not relevant to Nvidia's acquisition.



This again comes from the assumption that the gap is so huge that it takes a decade to catch up, but the catching up has happened in the last decade for the most part. Top x86 IPC has improved about 1.5x over the last 10 years, top ARM IPC has improved over 75x in the last 10 years and continues to have ~20% IPC improvement year-on-year, every single year. At some point these will catch up, and some can argue that they've already caught up (in the case of Apple which is about 3 years ahead of generic ARM).

As you say, x86 has been iterating for top speed logic for 20 years, which is partly true, but they just haven't done much. They had a huge gap (fastest x86 core was more than 150x faster than fastest ARM core just 15 years ago), and it just isn't anywhere near as big as it used to be.

It was always pretty obvious that x86 commitment to compatibility (x86 chips can run 40-year-old binaries) will cost them in efficiency and will slow down progress, as it has happened in the last decade. People unconstrained by this (like ARM) will have a much easier time improving their designs and moving ahead, as we've seen recently.



Yeah? Nvidia won't buy ARM to "keep the value of ARM soaring", they buy it to integrate it into their systems and to use their tech for their own advantage. Nvidia isn't Softbank, they're not buying ARM for its portfolio value, they're buying it because they want to build products with their IP and talent, products that don't currently exist and won't exist without this acquisition.


Valuation means they can buy at one price and sell at another making billions, or leverage that to buy other companies and things.

There is nothing they can't integrate into their systems by licensing ARM IP. They can license specific cores ARM have made or the IP and design their own custom cores, Nvidia has tried to do both before. They can hire people, license the ARM IP and make their own high speed core already. They do not in any way need to buy ARM to make that happen, again it's always been possible and Nvidia have tried to do it several times, remember Denver, remember their custom ARM based chip and x86 interpretor they tried.

Everything you're saying they want to buy ARM for they can do without spending 55billion on ARM in fact they can do that at a great deal lower cost, to the tune of 10s of billions less and then they'd also be in a situation where their cores are custom and not part of a business that sells it's IP.

As said the main reason is likely to diversify because if Intel decided to pay everyone to bundle an Intel gpu with every Intel sold system and most systems have an intergrated gpu that are good enough for most people dedicated gpu market could tank, hard. IN fact with ever increasing difficulty with shrinks there is a huge potential that the only real market that can support constantly increasing power and price for multie die chips in the future will be professional/server markets and gaming might all but get stuck at a given generation without the financial ability to move forwards.

Talking about the gap in performance between x86 and ARM is again entirely missing the point of what I'm saying. The gap in IPC is irrelevant here, making a 4.5Ghz chip requires a different chip design process than designing a chip for 3Ghz. When you first make a core for 4.5Ghz it will not be as good as your third attempt, that's the simple fact of it. If 90% of the performance was good enough then Intel wouldn't still sell to gamers who insist AMD suck. For ARM chips in desktop to compete they actually need similar performance or even better, if you think they'll hit it out of the park on their first attempt then, well, lol. The last 20 years, the gap between IPC is all entirely irrelevant as is the statement that x86 has done nothing for 20 years because that's clearly bull. There are diminishing returns, AMD and Intel gain little by little, but ARM also while accelerating very fast suddenly aren't tripling performance every generation either, because they've hit the same brick walls. Why did ARM architectures increase so much in speed between say 2010 and 2015, but they didn't increase performance between 2015 and 2020 by anything like the same amount? There wasn't the same markets for ARM devices during AMD/Intel's 1990-2010 period so they were shockingly miles behind, then they had a period of easy gains, learning from each generation, low hanging fruit, significantly increasing transistor counts allowing much bigger transistor count gains.

A lot of earlier ARM chips were way smaller and while AMD/Intel were essentially at the larger dies they wanted to use for desktop ARM was making 30mm^2 chips, then they'd move to a new node but also move up to 60mm^2 and actually quadrouple transistor count rather than double. Not surprisingly as ARM chips being made tended to cap out around the 100mm^2 mark due to power/cost reasons then their gains in transistor counts slower significantly and so did performance. From an architectural side every generation you add a bunch of things leaves you shockingly, less things that can be added the next generation. every addition starts costing more transistors, being harder to implement and bringing less benefit.

So no, I didn't make any assumption anywhere that the gap is so huge, it's you making an assumption that because ARM increased their IPC so quickly from 10 to 5 years ago that they can equally close a small gap extremely quickly despite literal mountains of evidence that this assumption is completely ridiculous.
 
Soldato
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Valuation means they can buy at one price and sell at another making billions, or leverage that to buy other companies and things.

There is nothing they can't integrate into their systems by licensing ARM IP. They can license specific cores ARM have made or the IP and design their own custom cores, Nvidia has tried to do both before. They can hire people, license the ARM IP and make their own high speed core already. They do not in any way need to buy ARM to make that happen, again it's always been possible and Nvidia have tried to do it several times, remember Denver, remember their custom ARM based chip and x86 interpretor they tried.

Everything you're saying they want to buy ARM for they can do without spending 55billion on ARM in fact they can do that at a great deal lower cost, to the tune of 10s of billions less and then they'd also be in a situation where their cores are custom and not part of a business that sells it's IP.

As said the main reason is likely to diversify because if Intel decided to pay everyone to bundle an Intel gpu with every Intel sold system and most systems have an intergrated gpu that are good enough for most people dedicated gpu market could tank, hard. IN fact with ever increasing difficulty with shrinks there is a huge potential that the only real market that can support constantly increasing power and price for multie die chips in the future will be professional/server markets and gaming might all but get stuck at a given generation without the financial ability to move forwards.

Talking about the gap in performance between x86 and ARM is again entirely missing the point of what I'm saying. The gap in IPC is irrelevant here, making a 4.5Ghz chip requires a different chip design process than designing a chip for 3Ghz. When you first make a core for 4.5Ghz it will not be as good as your third attempt, that's the simple fact of it. If 90% of the performance was good enough then Intel wouldn't still sell to gamers who insist AMD suck. For ARM chips in desktop to compete they actually need similar performance or even better, if you think they'll hit it out of the park on their first attempt then, well, lol. The last 20 years, the gap between IPC is all entirely irrelevant as is the statement that x86 has done nothing for 20 years because that's clearly bull. There are diminishing returns, AMD and Intel gain little by little, but ARM also while accelerating very fast suddenly aren't tripling performance every generation either, because they've hit the same brick walls. Why did ARM architectures increase so much in speed between say 2010 and 2015, but they didn't increase performance between 2015 and 2020 by anything like the same amount? There wasn't the same markets for ARM devices during AMD/Intel's 1990-2010 period so they were shockingly miles behind, then they had a period of easy gains, learning from each generation, low hanging fruit, significantly increasing transistor counts allowing much bigger transistor count gains.

A lot of earlier ARM chips were way smaller and while AMD/Intel were essentially at the larger dies they wanted to use for desktop ARM was making 30mm^2 chips, then they'd move to a new node but also move up to 60mm^2 and actually quadrouple transistor count rather than double. Not surprisingly as ARM chips being made tended to cap out around the 100mm^2 mark due to power/cost reasons then their gains in transistor counts slower significantly and so did performance. From an architectural side every generation you add a bunch of things leaves you shockingly, less things that can be added the next generation. every addition starts costing more transistors, being harder to implement and bringing less benefit.

So no, I didn't make any assumption anywhere that the gap is so huge, it's you making an assumption that because ARM increased their IPC so quickly from 10 to 5 years ago that they can equally close a small gap extremely quickly despite literal mountains of evidence that this assumption is completely ridiculous.

We're obviously both speculating on intentions of Nvidia, you saying they'll just keep ARM as-is to diversify and I'll say they want to do something big with it. The rest is really off-topic (would be happy to have that discussion though in the appropriate topic).
 
Associate
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On the first part, ARM has increased in value from 32 to 55billion, there are LOTS more reasons to want ARM than wanting them to make a desktop architecture.

On the second part I didn't say x86 was more powerful than aarch64 anywhere. What I said was in general x86 cores (not architecture) have been designed with top speeds in mind for decades and all optimisation is to that and all existing ARM cores (not architecture) has been utilised on chips that forgo loads of core logic x86 designs current have to feed and predict data to chips at significantly higher speeds. No one has made ARM chips for high speed yet, no one will hit it out the park on the first design, it will take iterations of those kinds of chips to get good.

As for the last part, 3 years is going to be how long it would take ARM to bring out an ARM IP for higher speed, it would be a further 2 years before Nvidia actually launched a chip using it most likely and it would be that first iteration against x86 chips that by and large have been iterating that high speed core logic for 20 years and will continue to make architecture improvements in that 5 year time period as well.

ARM would also need to actually hire people and dedicate resources to it and in doing so would take resources away from all of their existing IP improvements. It takes time to change course and to keep the value of ARM soaring they would really want to keep things going as they are making all the normal improvements to all their existing IP lines. I'd actually say it would take a reasonable amount of time to hire more people, then a few years to make an architecture, then a couple years to make the first chips based off it and they won't be competitive till several iterations into it. It could easily be a decade before they had a competitive high speed chip.
If x86 was "designed with top speeds in mind" why are there loads of useless instructions like Loop or Rotate and costly prefixes consuming instruction bytes and increasing decoding complexity? Getting rid of them would make the front end faster and make programs smaller.
 
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