Just to clear up a few points:
1). I looked hard for smoking guns. I checked multiple driver versions on both AMD and NV hardware to see if I could find evidence that one vendor took a harder hit than the other when performing a given DX11 task. There aren't any, other than tessellation in AO.
My best understanding, however, is that AMD and NV both typically optimize a title by working with the developer to create best-case HLSL code. With GameWorks, NV controls the HLSL, and the developer either cannot access that code directly or cannot share it with AMD.
Therefore: Even if AMD and NV both take a 10% hit when enabling a given function, NV has been able to optimize the code. AMD cannot.
2). Implementing an AMD-specific code path or library is something that can only be done when a title is in development. Developers cannot finish a game, launch it, and then just turn around and patch in an equivalent AMD library. Or rather, perhaps they technically *could*, but not without a non-trivial amount of time and effort.
If I'm wrong on either of these points, I'd welcome additional information. But even if no smoking gun exists today, this seems to represent a genuine shift in the balance of power between the two vendors. I believe this is different than Mantle because GameWorks is a closed system that prevents AMD from optimizing, whereas Mantle does not prevent NV from optimizing its own DX11 code paths.
We've seen what happens when one vendor controls another vendor's performance. Sabotage. Obfuscation. It's too easy for the company that controls the performance levers to start twisting them in the face of strong competition.