Soldato
My notes just confuse matters.
Killswitch is looking very dodgy indeed.
Killswitch is looking very dodgy indeed.
OcUK Mafia game thread - Game 3
- Thread starter iviv
- Start date
Dammit, can't edit posts!
Forgot to say, Brabbinho started game today off pointing the finger at me because of "something" and then happily changed his vote to Fortseven after Shami started the vote. Whilst I don't know what the "something" is I would be more trusting of him if he actually stood by his convictions, his happiness to alter his vote is suspicious. But then I don't want to fall into my "Gooner"trap and vote for him out of revenge!
I got find what made me suspicious of you earlier in the day, but I think it boiled down to your support of 47 and Egon earlier in the game. I have had an eye on them throughout so you supporting made me think you could be Mafia
Soldato
Glad I'm not the only one spending time on this. No notes or spreadsheet made but I did spend over an hour last night reading and re-reading all and parts of the thread trying to decipher peoples posts. It's a total mind bender...
Interesting point on Fortyseven Pudney, I'll be kicking myself if I've get this wrong. But Fortyseven has done a better job of convincing me he's town than Brabbinho. He puts forward a much better case that I can relate to, plain and simple. Brabbinho hasn't really offered much in that respect, it's as if he isn't really thinking about it like a townie and is just going with the flow.
Interesting point on Fortyseven Pudney, I'll be kicking myself if I've get this wrong. But Fortyseven has done a better job of convincing me he's town than Brabbinho. He puts forward a much better case that I can relate to, plain and simple. Brabbinho hasn't really offered much in that respect, it's as if he isn't really thinking about it like a townie and is just going with the flow.
Soldato
There's 3 votes fir brabbsy, 2 for 47 with 4 ppl left to vote. I would like to follow my gut but it would be pointless as I will need the other remaining votes to back me up. Don't know what to do 
Caporegime
If you're mafia then I'd possibly think Killswitch would be too. If 47 is? I'm not sure really, one of the quiet ones maybe (Ghost or Gooner) Egon....something still tells me he's a townie, I could be wrong though.
Soldato
I've explained my stance on Fortyseven.
To answer your 2nd question, to be totally honest, right now I have no idea either way. This game has had me in knots since the first vote. If I make it through, I'll attempt to unravel the last 24hrs and go from there.
To answer your 2nd question, to be totally honest, right now I have no idea either way. This game has had me in knots since the first vote. If I make it through, I'll attempt to unravel the last 24hrs and go from there.
Caporegime
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- 12 Mar 2009
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EDIT: This vote has been changed, please see post #260.
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The only reason I post the question is that I hope who ever is lynched helps the town form some concrete theories to win the game.
The more I think about it I reckon that Ghost must be mafia. He's been very quiet to date, rocks up to vote on the Brabbinho bandwagon (knowing I'm innocent) and then can't post again tonight so as not to incriminate himself.
You have Egon, and it is fair reasoning. I can't look beyond his killing of Leprechaun on day 1 as anything other than a mafia move. It also ties in with Ghost voting for me to save his accomplice.
The more I think about it I reckon that Ghost must be mafia. He's been very quiet to date, rocks up to vote on the Brabbinho bandwagon (knowing I'm innocent) and then can't post again tonight so as not to incriminate himself.
You have Egon, and it is fair reasoning. I can't look beyond his killing of Leprechaun on day 1 as anything other than a mafia move. It also ties in with Ghost voting for me to save his accomplice.
Caporegime
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Thing is, I don't even believe you're mafia, I don't believe you would be picked to be in the mob twice in succession. I know that the roles are meant to be given out at random but I am absolutely positive if the same people were given the same roles twice in a row then Iviv would have intervened if only to make it fair to everyone in giving them a chance to play a different role.
I can't really tell who is who at the moment, I made a remark toward Pudney and his reply seemed believable, after that I didn't really have anybody to go on. The Fortyseven stuff seemed to be tied to his choice and timing of vote on the first day, and his inability to try and justify that action, or rather certain people wanted to read something of nothing.
The game is still wide open for me, I'm not even sure what lynching you will do, I've got another 50 minutes to change my vote and I may still do so.
Caporegime
I don't think that's true at all. Iviv I presume used some kind of random generator, it wouldn't make sense for him to fix it so that previous mafia weren't mafia again, that would muck up the entire game.
I'm with you here, I intentionally didn't abstain with Jedi because it was the same as voting for him. In hindsight we can now look on Jedi's posts as being truthful, if a little dominating/commanding.
Nothing Fortyseven has done convinces me he is being anything other than truthful, it could all be an elaborate double bluff though. One thing this game is teaching me is that I'm too trusting
So, today I will:
on the basis of his own admitted erraticness. Like I say, if he'd kept with me I'd ironically be more trusting of him!
If this turns out wrong though, I seriously think we need to listen to Jedi and properly analyse people's votes.
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Caporegime
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What are the chances of for example Brabbinho being in the mob again? And then lets take three games and what are the chances of him being picked two out of three times by a random number generator? I don't think the chances of being picked 66% of the time are very high. That's all I really have to go off in regards to him because in my opinion he hasn't really done anything suspicious. I'm going to change my vote.
It will
Just bear in mind if you vote for me for the sake of it- it will make it harder for you to tie down voting patterns
Soldato
Killswitch votes on day 1 to save egon. Votes on day 2 and 3 to lynch the same person.
Egon has spent days 2 and 3 focusing soley on fortyseven and then brabbinho, drawing everyone's attention to them.
Killswitch just says he doesn't believe brabbinho is mafia yet still votes for him to be lynched?? These two are obviously in league with each other. Does no one else suspect this?
Egon has spent days 2 and 3 focusing soley on fortyseven and then brabbinho, drawing everyone's attention to them.
Killswitch just says he doesn't believe brabbinho is mafia yet still votes for him to be lynched?? These two are obviously in league with each other. Does no one else suspect this?
It will
Just bear in mind if you vote for me for the sake of it- it will make it harder for you to tie down voting patterns
This is so frustrating. I didn't vote on day 1 to keep townie numbers up (which fails abysmally), Jedi then points out lynching a townie can be useful. If KILLSW1TCH changes his vote then I could as well and keep numbers up depending who he changes to. But then how much to rely on Jedi's advice?
Soldato
Wow this has gone a bit bonkers!
I'm fairly certain both FortySeven and Brabbinho are innocent townies and everyone starts voting for them!?
I don't want to see another mafia victory and would much rather see the awfully quiet Ghost brought to justice. I believe them and I would hope you would too!
My other 2 I'm keeping an eye on are Shami and Gooner but my reasoning isn't very sound: They were last to post after the previous night kill. Not exactly incriminating evidence but given the way this game flipped on its head I have little else to go on.
I need to go back and count the votes again but right now I'm hoping to avoid lynching either of the 2 people in here I have placed some trust in!
I'm fairly certain both FortySeven and Brabbinho are innocent townies and everyone starts voting for them!?
I don't want to see another mafia victory and would much rather see the awfully quiet Ghost brought to justice. I believe them and I would hope you would too!
My other 2 I'm keeping an eye on are Shami and Gooner but my reasoning isn't very sound: They were last to post after the previous night kill. Not exactly incriminating evidence but given the way this game flipped on its head I have little else to go on.
I need to go back and count the votes again but right now I'm hoping to avoid lynching either of the 2 people in here I have placed some trust in!
Caporegime
Re: Brabbinho odds:
Well this game it's 3 in 13
Last game it was 2 in 9.
So the chances of being mafia on both games is 6 in 117. So just over 5%, not beyond the realms of possibility. I think it's far more ludicrous (and honestly the most suspicious thing I've seen today) that Killswitch would suggest that Iviv would rig the mafia.
I'm going to keep my vote as it won't change anything and I'm still suspicious of 47.
Well this game it's 3 in 13
Last game it was 2 in 9.
So the chances of being mafia on both games is 6 in 117. So just over 5%, not beyond the realms of possibility. I think it's far more ludicrous (and honestly the most suspicious thing I've seen today) that Killswitch would suggest that Iviv would rig the mafia.
I'm going to keep my vote as it won't change anything and I'm still suspicious of 47.
Caporegime
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I'm going to change my vote, originally I had voted for Brabbinho but I don't know if I really want to be led by other people without making up my own mind on the matter. In light of a couple of baseless accusations thrown my way such as:
Yes I started voting on day one but I believe the first day is such a lottery with barely anything to go on, somebody has to go otherwise the game won't progress properly, we can all sit around on the first day talking about facial hair and whether or not that facial hair is suspicious, somewhat sexy, or slightly vulgar, or we can try and let the game progress!
The second day I was one of the earlier players to vote for Jedi but the way he conducted himself was just TOO open and it felt to me like he was trying to play a game with that honesty. Lots of other people agreed otherwise he wouldn't have been lynched so I don't really think it's fair to single me out for that. On that basis I'm going to change my vote to Pudney, so:
Vote: Pudney
Indeed, I hadn't considered how game breaking it could be if the roles were picked instead of assigned at random. However as you've just said it's only in the region of a 5% chance of being picked twice in three games I am happy to personally rule Brabbinho out at this moment in time. He hasn't really done anything to arouse my suspicion and statistically is not likely to be a mafia member either!
Yes I started voting on day one but I believe the first day is such a lottery with barely anything to go on, somebody has to go otherwise the game won't progress properly, we can all sit around on the first day talking about facial hair and whether or not that facial hair is suspicious, somewhat sexy, or slightly vulgar, or we can try and let the game progress!
The second day I was one of the earlier players to vote for Jedi but the way he conducted himself was just TOO open and it felt to me like he was trying to play a game with that honesty. Lots of other people agreed otherwise he wouldn't have been lynched so I don't really think it's fair to single me out for that. On that basis I'm going to change my vote to Pudney, so:
Vote: Pudney
Indeed, I hadn't considered how game breaking it could be if the roles were picked instead of assigned at random. However as you've just said it's only in the region of a 5% chance of being picked twice in three games I am happy to personally rule Brabbinho out at this moment in time. He hasn't really done anything to arouse my suspicion and statistically is not likely to be a mafia member either!
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