Premium Bonds - If you post to say how much you've won, please also say how much you have invested.

Feek said:
www.thisismoney.co.uk

Should I sell my old Premium Bonds and purchase new ones?

I have held a sizeable sum in Premium Bonds with National Savings and Investments for the best part of two decades. The returns I've had are modest - the old smaller prize win here and there.
www.thisismoney.co.uk www.thisismoney.co.uk

Read and understand. It explains why the 'statistics' you quoted are so, so wrong.
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I think he is challenging Nasher who was the previous record holder for being permanently wong wrong.

Honestly when people are insisting on their version of the truth being right just let them get on with it.
i think they should maximise their chances of winning by withdrawing and replacing every month ;)
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
I think he is challenging Nasher who was the previous record holder for being permanently wong wrong.

Honestly when people are insisting on their version of the truth being right just let them get on with it.
i think they should maximise their chances of winning by withdrawing and replacing every month ;)
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First of all get your facts straight, I did not say every month. :rolleyes:

The article states this.

"Since October 2016 the number of eligible Premium Bonds has grown from roughly 63billion to 113billion suggesting that although the ultimate prize is stacked slightly in favour of those who have recently purchased."

I said from what I read.

I guess some people don't change or scared to adopt change and wonder why they have not progressed.
 
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"Since October 2016 the number of eligible Premium Bonds has grown from roughly 63billion to 113billion suggesting that although the ultimate prize is stacked slightly in favour of those who have recently purchased."

Of course it is, more premium bonds have been bought more recently. If more had been bought prior to that date then the odds would be stacked prior to the date. It doesn't mean that you have more chance of winning if you bough bonds more recently.

EDIT: sorry just caught up on the thread and it is the equivalent to beating your head against a wall made up of stupid.
 
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FNG said:
"Since October 2016 the number of eligible Premium Bonds has grown from roughly 63billion to 113billion suggesting that although the ultimate prize is stacked slightly in favour of those who have recently purchased."

Of course it is, more premium bonds have been bought more recently. If more had been bought prior to that date then the odds would be stacked prior to the date. It doesn't mean that you have more chance of winning if you bough bonds more recently.

EDIT: sorry just caught up on the thread and it is the equivalent to beating your head against a wall made up of stupid.
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Did I ever say chance? I hope you know what proportion means in this context? :rolleyes:

this is what I said
"higher proportion of winners with newer numbers."
 
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Mrwong said:
First of all get your facts straight, I did not say every month. :rolleyes:

The article states this.

"Since October 2016 the number of eligible Premium Bonds has grown from roughly 63billion to 113billion suggesting that although the ultimate prize is stacked slightly in favour of those who have recently purchased."

I said from what I read.

I guess some people don't change or scared to adopt change and wonder why they have not progressed.
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The bonds are not a static thing. The age is irrelevant.
Many of those 63 billion will have been cashed in. Of course some will remain but many will no longer be the same bonds.

If everyone cashed in all their bonds and bought new the following month we would have proof that new bonds win and old ones dont. The new bonds would take 100% of the prize money.
See you need to buy new every month as I said. The truth is out there ;)

Scared to adopt change? Whats that got to do with a load of flawed stats and nonsense?

Its an audited random number, picked from a rather large pool each month.
Now you could say there is a flaw in the seed for the random selection but I suspect that would be a little challenging so probably best not to ;)
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
The bonds are not a static thing. The age is irrelevant.
Many of those 63 billion will have been cashed in. Of course some will remain but many will no longer be the same bonds.

If everyone cashed in all their bonds and bought new the following month we would have proof that new bonds win and old ones dont. The new bonds would take 100% of the prize money.
See you need to buy new every month as I said. The truth is out there ;)

Scared to adopt change? Whats that got to do with a load of flawed stats and nonsense?

Its an audited random number, picked from a rather large pool each month.
Now you could say there is a flaw in the seed for the random selection but I suspect that would be a little challenging so probably best not to ;)
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Did I say chance? nope, I said proportion.
 
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Have £2700 and have won 3 x £25 in the past 5 years. Am uber pumped at the returns.... Ker-ching!

I actually forgot about what I had in there until I check a couple of weeks ago.
 
Mrwong said:
Did I say chance? nope, I said proportion.
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This year, I will have twelve chances of winning.

You will only have eleven.

Each of our bonds has exactly the same chance of winning a prize, you must accept that by the fact that it's a random number drawn from a pool, right? If you don't accept that then there's no point in continuing.

Assuming you do accept that, by definition, if we both have [say] £20k invested, that means I'll have 240,000 chances of winning but you'll only have 220,000 chances of winning over the next year.

It's a lottery. Imagine there's a lottery to win a car and that lottery starts in January and runs through to December. Everyone who buys a ticket during that period has an equal chance of winning but by your logic, you'd have more chance of winning if you bought a ticket in December. This is exactly the same principle.
 
Mrwong said:
Its the frequency of a number, not the chance of a number. Each number has the same chance, the proportion is the frequency of the number. which is the actual event.
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Which has ZERO to do with why you would sell you bonds and buy new.
You would only buy new (ignoring the penalty for doing so) if there was a greater CHANCE of them winning.

You say you understand the chance is the same. And yet you posted that.
Something doesn't add up.
If you really recognised the chance was the same you wouldn't suggest your action.

Effectively the equivalent to saying my lottery numbers didn't win last week so I will change them next week.
 
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