I notice he's ignored my last post.
Premium Bonds - If you post to say how much you've won, please also say how much you have invested.
- Thread starter Feek
- Start date
Go read The Logic of Chance (1866).
Soldato
I don't need to, I already understand probability from when I studied stats.
Unless standard stats analysis is all wrong the chances of an item being selected from a pool of equal items is not 1/[pool size]
It makes no different what they are, when they were purchased, when they were made, fell from the sky or grew etc
I just want to understand why you are saying you should cash in and repurchase when you have said you understand they all have the same chance.
Even if there was no penalty nothing logical assuming you understand basic probability is going to lead you to the conclusion that changing your bonds is going to benefit you in any way.
Go read it, theoretical outcome v actual outcome.
Soldato
Stop distracting.
Answer this : I just want to understand why you are saying you should cash in and repurchase when you have said you understand they all have the same chance.
if you are in a bingo hall and the majority of people that win are in a certain area. You all have the same chance to win, yet a high frequency of wins, are in a certain area of the hall. What would people do.
Sit wherever the hell I wanted to as it doesn't matter.
Soldato
Have you cashed them in yet?
How many bonds do you have?
How many bonds do you have?
Soldato
Well the dumb ones would probably conclude its a lucky area and if you move there that you are more likely to win.
The nin dumb ones would realise where you sit is irrelevant to the outcome of the game.
Now I have found, https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Logic_of_Chance
Make it easy for me, point to the page and paragraph that you think is relevant to this whole conversation on why you think selling items that have an equal chance of winning should be sold in order to purchase new items with an equal chance of winning.
Soldato
Just to expand on "Well the dumb ones would probably conclude its a lucky area and if you move there that you are more likely to win."
There is some increased chance of course that as the population increased in that area that there would be more wins.
(like I said above if everyone sold all their bonds and bought them again, its 100% likely all the prizes would be won by a 1 month old bond)
However thats somewhat irrelevant to an individual. THEIR chance remains exactly the same.
Now if they were pooling in some way their chance of winning goes up in direct correlation to a reduced amount being won (their share).
Exactly why people pool in crypto mining.
Or why syndicates form for lottery etc, increase the chance to win, but accept the rewards will be lower.
EV (expected value) analysis would tell you that 1 person with 1 bond would have the same expected value of winnings after a year if they acted alone, or with a large group of others via pooling.
Anyway, somewhat of a tangent. Sorry
There is some increased chance of course that as the population increased in that area that there would be more wins.
(like I said above if everyone sold all their bonds and bought them again, its 100% likely all the prizes would be won by a 1 month old bond)
However thats somewhat irrelevant to an individual. THEIR chance remains exactly the same.
Now if they were pooling in some way their chance of winning goes up in direct correlation to a reduced amount being won (their share).
Exactly why people pool in crypto mining.
Or why syndicates form for lottery etc, increase the chance to win, but accept the rewards will be lower.
EV (expected value) analysis would tell you that 1 person with 1 bond would have the same expected value of winnings after a year if they acted alone, or with a large group of others via pooling.
Anyway, somewhat of a tangent. Sorry
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probability of an event are predictions of the frequency with which events of that type will occur.
This is different as you only have one draw to win so the frequency of a win is 1 in December and the person with more tickets has a more opportunity to win but each ticket has the same chance.
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Soldato
So you avoiding all the questions then @Mrwong that you know will prove your idea was dumb.
Soldato
We all know this, its like first 10 mins of first stats class
I'm impressed by your total ineptitude.
How about the fact that you're taking yourself out of just over 8% of the available draws by withdrawing and re-investing?
NS&I said: 'You can see that over three quarters of current Premium Bonds have been bought since 2010, therefore the chances of one of these Bonds winning a prize is greater"
And this is why I will stick with the higher proportion.
Do newer Premium Bonds have a better chance of winning?
The majority of prizes won on Premium Bonds in recent months have been bought since 2010 - so is there anything in the conspiracy theory almost as common as Elvis still being alive?
I can hear the marble ding around your skull. Read the next sentence:
'That being said, each £1 Bond has an equal chance of winning a prize each month.'
All they were saying was that the vast majority of bonds were issued since 2010, so logically there are just more bonds in circulation.