Premium Bonds - If you post to say how much you've won, please also say how much you have invested.

iron_monkey · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:17

Mrwong said:
NS&I said: 'You can see that over three quarters of current Premium Bonds have been bought since 2010, therefore the chances of one of these Bonds winning a prize is greater"

And this is why I will stick with the higher proportion.

Do newer Premium Bonds have a better chance of winning?

The majority of prizes won on Premium Bonds in recent months have been bought since 2010 - so is there anything in the conspiracy theory almost as common as Elvis still being alive?

www.thisismoney.co.uk

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:19

dLockers said:
I can hear the marble ding around your skull. Read the next sentence:

'That being said, each £1 Bond has an equal chance of winning a prize each month.'

All they were saying was that the vast majority of bonds were issued since 2010, so logically there are just more bonds in circulation.

yes, we know the chance is the same for each number, I never said it wasn't but the frequency/ proportion is larger.
let say 99 people purchased a ticket on Monday, and one person purchased a ticket on Friday. All have equal chance of winning. There are 100 tickets, and only 10 draws which group will have a better outcome Friday or Monday.
All I am doing is taking the money out and putting in back with the larger group.

Feek · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:21

Mrwong said:
And this is why I will stick with the higher proportion.

Let's go back to my lottery and see if we can make it match your strange, twisted ideas.

At the end of the year, the lottery ends. Every person gets their £1 entry fee back.

The next year, it starts again and each person buys a ticket on the same day they bought a ticket the year before, they get the same number.

When the lottery is drawn the following December, do they all have an equal chance of winning, or do those who bought their ticket in December have a greater chance?

Feek · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:23

Oh and forgetting the lottery thing, you've still not told us how missing a draw and reducing your number of chances by over 8% can actually increase the possibility of a win :confused:

dlockers · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:25

Mrwong said:
yes, we know the chance is the same for each number, I never said it wasn't but the frequency is larger.

You are confusing things.

The likelihood of a winning ticket being bought after 2010 is higher. It doesn't mean that tickets bought 2010 onwards are "better tickets".

If you look at Premium Bond statistics - often it is people with very few bonds who win. Know why? Because statistically the majority of bond holders have very few bonds.

It doesn't mean you are more likely to win by holding fewer bonds.

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:27

Mrwong said:
yes, we know the chance is the same for each number, I never said it wasn't but the frequency is larger.

Which is irrelevant in this scenario.
You get why its irrelevant right?

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:48

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Which is irrelevant in this scenario.
You get why its irrelevant right?

i I am just switching group, what's hard to understand. In all my posts I never said the chance is greater or lower. I going for frequency = actual. if none can understand the concept of chance and frequency that is not my fault.

platinum87 · 2 Mar 2023 at 20:49

If you are paying attention you will notice he used statistics to prove he is correct.

Basic probability allows you to over-ride that, however in other topics, you are unable to use basic math to dismiss what statistics prove.

Hopefully the lesson to be learned here is, stop posting statistics to prove your point.

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:02

Mrwong said:
i I am just switching group, what's hard to understand. In all my posts I never said the chance is greater or lower. I going for frequency = actual. if none can understand the concept of chance and frequency that is not my fault.

So your admitting it then, your deliberatly lowering your chance to win because you would rather be in a larger pool of people whos individual results are statistically going to have exactly the same result as everyone else.

Or lets put it into simple English. Your choosing to lower your chance to become a millionaire as you would rather have a bond number closer to someone who wins a million than the chance to win the million yourself.
Bonkers.

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:16

Feek said:
Oh and forgetting the lottery thing, you've still not told us how missing a draw and reducing your number of chances by over 8% can actually increase the possibility of a win

How do you work out I am 8% down, is there some kind of time constraint?

Feek · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:20

Mrwong said:
How do you work out I am 8% down, is there some kind of time constraint?

It's been said multiple times already.

Feek said:
Even if you withdraw your money and reinvest it on the same day, it'll miss a draw because it has to be in there for a full month before it's eligible. So in that calendar year, you'll only be in eleven draws instead of twelve.

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:24

Feek said:
It's been said multiple times already.

Are the draws just for 12 months?

dlockers · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:27

Wet streets cause rain.

bazzabear · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:28

Mrwong said:
yes, we know the chance is the same for each number, I never said it wasn't but the frequency/ proportion is larger.
let say 99 people purchased a ticket on Monday, and one person purchased a ticket on Friday. All have equal chance of winning. There are 100 tickets, and only 10 draws which group will have a better outcome Friday or Monday.
All I am doing is taking the money out and putting in back with the larger group.

It's amazing that you have come up with a scenario which describes very clearly why you are wrong, and seem to think it proves you right.

Why would you think being in the larger group would be of any benefit to you whatsoever? It has a higher chance of winning - because it's a bigger group. Each individual within it has exactly the same chance as every other individual.

Feek · 2 Mar 2023 at 21:29

Mrwong said:
Are the draws just for 12 months?

I just picked a year as it seemed a nice period to give you tell you how much you'd be reducing your chance of a win.

Feek said:
This year, I will have twelve chances of winning.

You will only have eleven.

Each of our bonds has exactly the same chance of winning a prize, you must accept that by the fact that it's a random number drawn from a pool, right? If you don't accept that then there's no point in continuing.

Assuming you do accept that, by definition, if we both have [say] £20k invested, that means I'll have 240,000 chances of winning but you'll only have 220,000 chances of winning over the next year.

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 22:05

Feek said:
I just picked a year as it seemed a nice period to give you tell you how much you'd be reducing your chance of a win.

Does not work like that.

dlockers · 2 Mar 2023 at 22:07

Mrwong said:
Does not work like that.

Have you read the rules?

If you buy premium bonds you are entered into the following months draw. If you withdraw you are basically a months draw less than everyone else.

Mrwong · 2 Mar 2023 at 22:07

bazzabear said:
It's amazing that you have come up with a scenario which describes very clearly why you are wrong, and seem to think it proves you right.

Why would you think being in the larger group would be of any benefit to you whatsoever? It has a higher chance of winning - because it's a bigger group. Each individual within it has exactly the same chance as every other individual.

Just shifting it.

Feek · 2 Mar 2023 at 22:07

Mrwong said:
Does not work like that.

Are you saying that you won't have a lower chance of winning if you miss a month?

You know what, life's too short to argue like this.

Take your money out, put it back, do whatever you want. You've clearly decided you're going to anyway and won't pay the slightest attention to anything anyone says in here.

smallstool · 2 Mar 2023 at 22:10

£50 on £50k

£500 total this year.