Yeah he's a leaker with a bad track record that deletes videos when wrong and has an ego bigger than Jensen.
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RDNA 3 rumours Q3/4 2022
- Thread starter Grim5
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Man of Honour
The possibility is that AMD will take the opportunity they have to gain market share and positive publicity, which could be leveraged into more profit over time. AMD's profits are reduced by them being the distant second in the market. They can bring out products (and have brought out products) that are comparable with nvidia's products but cheaper and the large majority of customers will still buy (and have still bought) the nvidia product despite paying extra for nothing more than the name. That huge difference in "mindshare" could be reduced if AMD gained market share and had a lot of positive publicity. Which they would definitely get, free of charge, if rdna3 is a significantly better deal than Ada.
But I think that, like most if not all big businesses, they have no thought for anything beyond a few months and are ruled by greed and a desire for big bonuses (probably before leaving for another company to do the same there). Short termism is rife in business. So I think AMD will dismiss the opportunity they have and instead settle for keeping a very small market share with as big a profit margin as possible so that the people at a decision-making level can claim they're super-successful and deserve huge wads of cash. So I expect to see rdna3 cards being slightly cheaper than comparable Ada cards, but only slightly.
I hope to be surprised. I hope that the decision-makers at AMD will seize the opportunity to significantly change the graphics card market in AMD's favour. If so, I'll buy an rdna3 card. And probably a Ryzen-based PC to go with it, since my current system has an i7-4790K and DDR3 RAM so I wouldn't get the best from a next gen graphics card (unless it was a bottom end budget one). If I'm changing the motherboard, CPU, RAM, CPU cooler (and probably the PSU as mine is 600W ATX2.0) I may as well get a whole new PC minus the drives that I'd move over. I have 4TB of SSD space, so I don't feel a need to upgrade there. Ryzen 7600X and Radeon 7600XT, maybe. Maybe I'd get a bonus for a matching set, like you do with armour in some RPGs
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AMD ain't gonna do ****ing nothin' but look for the biggest profit possible, if you think otherwise then you probably think that all companies are your 'friends' too.
Drongos.
Drongos.
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Associate
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@Angilion brilliant post. Brilliant, brilliant post.
Caporegime
Worth watching, Nvidia GPU's are much more expensive to make than RDNA3.
AMD will find it easier to make a profit than Nvidia, even at a lower retail cost, because AMD designed their GPU in a way that's smart.
AMD will find it easier to make a profit than Nvidia, even at a lower retail cost, because AMD designed their GPU in a way that's smart.
Soldato
We think you are brilliant too though Bill! Billiant.
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Caporegime
The possibility is that AMD will take the opportunity they have to gain market share and positive publicity, which could be leveraged into more profit over time. AMD's profits are reduced by them being the distant second in the market. They can bring out products (and have brought out products) that are comparable with nvidia's products but cheaper and the large majority of customers will still buy (and have still bought) the nvidia product despite paying extra for nothing more than the name. That huge difference in "mindshare" could be reduced if AMD gained market share and had a lot of positive publicity. Which they would definitely get, free of charge, if rdna3 is a significantly better deal than Ada.
But I think that, like most if not all big businesses, they have no thought for anything beyond a few months and are ruled by greed and a desire for big bonuses (probably before leaving for another company to do the same there). Short termism is rife in business. So I think AMD will dismiss the opportunity they have and instead settle for keeping a very small market share with as big a profit margin as possible so that the people at a decision-making level can claim they're super-successful and deserve huge wads of cash. So I expect to see rdna3 cards being slightly cheaper than comparable Ada cards, but only slightly.
I hope to be surprised. I hope that the decision-makers at AMD will seize the opportunity to significantly change the graphics card market in AMD's favour. If so, I'll buy an rdna3 card. And probably a Ryzen-based PC to go with it, since my current system has an i7-4790K and DDR3 RAM so I wouldn't get the best from a next gen graphics card (unless it was a bottom end budget one). If I'm changing the motherboard, CPU, RAM, CPU cooler (and probably the PSU as mine is 600W ATX2.0) I may as well get a whole new PC minus the drives that I'd move over. I have 4TB of SSD space, so I don't feel a need to upgrade there. Ryzen 7600X and Radeon 7600XT, maybe. Maybe I'd get a bonus for a matching set, like you do with armour in some RPGs
AMD have tried this serval times before, HD 4000 series, HD 5000 series, R9 290 series.
With all, but the latter especially AMD still lost market share, arguably the most marketshare during the GCN 1.X vs Maxwell era, The R9 290X beat the GTX Titan for half the price, Nvidia still sold more of them.
AMD did it with Ryzen, huge success, one cannot overstate just how much of a success Ryzen is, Ryzen has diminished Intel as a company, significantly, AMD now have higher margins and they are worth more as a company. They are starting to look backwards at Nvidia...
I hope they can now do the same to Nvidia, AMD might even believe they have a chance now, that needs to be true, because if it isn't it may well be the end of it because it may be the best chance AMD have, and the last.
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If AMD price match nvidia -50 quid then not only will it cost them even more market share as far less people would be prepared to overpay to such a level for an AMD card but it'll also cost them CPU and AM5 sales as not only would people who are priced out of a GPU not bother to upgrade their system but nvidia is now saying if you buy ADA you don't need to upgrade your CPU as the GPU removes CPU bottleneck.
Caporegime
It does need to work, there is a limit to how much cheaper they can be than Nvidia, Making money is critical, if you don't have any money you can't R&D your next GPU.
AMD have made a lot of money off the back of Ryzen, that money is the result of RDNA2 and RDNA3, AMD spent $1.3 Billion on R&D just in the last quarter, a huge amount of money, Intel spent $3.5 Billion in 3 years on ARC, that should give you an idea of the sort of cost of these things, there is a balance in this, AMD want to gain market share, of course they do and they know they will only do it by offering a better value product, but if they are doing at the expense of profit there is no point because long term that's not going to work.
Nvidia will always make money, they have the mindshare to charge high prices and still sell as much if not more, and Nvidia are not stupid, they will sit and wait AMD out until they can't fund their development costs and AMD will be back to making GPU's no one wants.
So if the 7900XT is good enough and $1200, that's $400 or 33% less than the 4090, that's reasonable, its good, don't expect things to be 50% cheaper, that's not going to work.
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Permabanned
To be fair they had TWIMTBP to VS though which let's be honest here looks sick as an opener to a game..
Caporegime
That's marketing, which also costs money, game devs don't put those logo's there for free.
Soldato
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5870 was about 37% faster on average compared to 4890 while costing about 60% more - as per techpowerup review. It wasn't a great deal. Performance aside, it was bad.
R290 was hot, loud and it throttled back with its BBA cooler. Huge mistake from AMD with that.
Is not like they did everything perfectly and the market was against them...
So it wasn't all that
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Soldato
On to something going with budles tbh. A CPU with GPU and game pack for a discount would shift sales well. Even offering a rebate. By launching second they have options and one day could score in that open goal!
It doesn't really matter what the 6900XT cost though as that's the halo product, what they need to do is price the 6800 and 6800XT at around £600 and 7-800 which is still a decent increase over last gen. If they do that then I'll buy one and it'll be the first time I bought a red card in 10 years, if they price match nvidia I'll buy neither and if / when sane pricing returns I'll just buy nvidia again.
Nvidia want AMD to price high because it means most people will have no choice but to buy up all Nvidias old 3000 stock at higher price and all AMD would be doing is helping out a competitor. Nvidia with 80% marketshare can afford to insult their customers and lose some but can AMD afford this down on 20% marketshare?
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Decent vid by Mildred tbf.
You forget to mention that the r9 290x was 6 months late to the party and was quickly matched by the 780ti only two weeks after. Even then the market split was far closer back then at 60-40% compared to 82-18% that it is now.
Seriously the utterly false rhetoric that AMD cannot gain marketshare no matter what needs to die. AMD has only themselves to blame for losing the market by being too late to everything, too slow and lately too expensive as well.
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Hopefully we get some performance leaks on both sides towards the end of the month
Associate
but i doubt they can afford to ramp up capacity or lock in inventory, what if nvidia decides to cut prices.. amd would just be stuck with excess inventory that would eat into their cash flows and investment appetite, right now with the position amd is in they can only hope to claw back market share gradually, trying to aim for 50% growth could end in disaster if they dont have a product thats unambiguously superior on all fronts with feature-set parity..
and regarding capacity ramp-up, i believe no ones going to have idle EUV machines that cost a couple 100 millions, and neither does ASML the sole supplier of such expensive machines will be maintaining a finished goods inventory, so that one could be ordered overnight, i believe we are talking about similar magnitude of lead times as in aircraft fulfillment, so amd wont be in a position to quickly react to recent nvidia newsflow, i dont see how it could be even possible within the lifecycle of said products unless we see a big corporate event related to one of tsmc's larger accounts..
further, there should be short term pressure on capacities because of the china ban, as the chinese would be keen to stockpile before the ban comes into effect
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Associate
I really hope AMD with the 7900xt pull a big surprise on Nvidia as AMD will be the way i go for sure. and we sure could do with some performance leaks from AMD just to spice things up and hopefully there price point will be much lower.
Soldato
The 7900XT to show what it can do, but the 7800 non XT to see what performance you can get for a little ££ as possible should be what most look for. That's assuming they even bother with non XT models this gen.
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