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RDNA 3 rumours Q3/4 2022

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Some extrapolations:

1. AMD has been saying RDNA 3 will offer a 50% increase in performance/watt
2. AMD's top SKU (6950XT) was ~350w and performance was somewhere in the region of RTX 3090 in 4K.

Assuming AMD will not exceed 350w this generation, this means we should expect the flagship SKU to be ~50% faster than RTX 3090 in pure raster performance. This should put it ahead of 4080 16GB but behind 4090, if first-party claims are to be believed. As long as AMD maintains (or slightly increases) the price tag of $950 then that's a winner. i.e. price competitive with 4080 12GB, but performance maybe halfway in between 4080 16G and 4090, maybe even closer to 4090.

AMD recently dropped the MSRP of 6800XT by 30% and other 6000 series SKUs by 10-20% as well, this suggests they want to get rid of the inventory ASAP. If, like Nvidia, they were planning to maintain (and not improve) perf/$ then they'd have no reason to try to get rid of inventory that quickly. This to me suggests that AMD knows at current pricing, the 6000 series will be poor value once RNDA 3 is out.

Maybe that's all wishful thinking, who knows. But I think we have some reasons to be optimistic :D
 
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Everyone keeps saying companies are greedy but that is a simplification. Companies make moves that make the most business sense. Sometimes that means being greedy. Sometimes it means not being greedy.

I can’t think of any sound reasoning that would mean AMD matching the 4000 series price is the best move from a business point of view.
IMO AMD matching Nvidia pricing has a less than 15% chance of happening
 
Chuk_Chuk said:
Everyone keeps saying companies are greedy but that is a simplification. Companies make moves that make the most business sense. Sometimes that means being greedy. Sometimes it means not being greedy.

I can’t think of any sound reasoning that would mean AMD matching the 4000 series price is the best move from a business point of view.
IMO AMD matching Nvidia pricing has a less than 15% chance of happening
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They are greedy, but greed manifests itself in various ways. Sometimes it's about charging as much as they can. Sometimes it's about very aggressive pricing to increase their market share or push their competitors. When Uber comes to a city and undercuts all existing cab businesses, it's still greedy even if their pricing at that time is low.

AMD being aggressive in pricing doesn't mean they're not greedy, it just means they value an increase in market share more than an increase in their margins. Currently their GPU market share is not excellent, their margins are excellent so if they can afford to keep their margins where they are while increasing their market share, that might be the best path to sustained increase in their revenues and profits.
 
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Some weird happenings with AMD's pricing.

Radeon 6800 are the ones i'm watching, have been for a while now, i check in on them every few days.

The Gigabyte Gaming OC a few weeks ago was £529, then it went up to £579, that was just a few days ago, now its at £629.
At the same time the MSI Gaming X Trio was £699, then £629 and now £579.

They are all still too expensive.
-------

Nvidia tho, that's worse, the 3070Ti starts at £630 and goes all the way to £750, and the RX 6800 is better.

Only like that can you justify £950 for an RTX 4070 12GB.

GTX 970: £270
GTX 1070: £370
RTX 2070 Super: £480
RTX 3070Ti: £600
RTX 4070 12GB: £950

Seeing a pattern?
 
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gpuerrilla said:
Well this time there is no pandemic and although 'supply issues' is heavily used, we know its not that bad otherwise there would not be containers of ampere cards sat in storage.

The excuses are already thin, the other elephant in the room is when are the scalpers coming out to play.
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I bet you'll find a lot of refund happening after the scalps on wave one fail to attract interest.

Further waves I doubt will ever go OOS until EOL.
 
humbug said:
Some weird happenings with AMD's pricing.

Radeon 6800 are the ones i'm watching, have been for a while now, i check in on them every few days.

The Gigabyte Gaming OC a few weeks ago was £529, then it went up to £579, that was just a few days ago, now its at £629.
At the same time the MSI Gaming X Trio was £699, then £629 and now £579.

They are all still too expensive.
-------

Nvidia tho, that's worse, the 3070Ti starts at £630 and goes all the way to £750, and the RX 6800 is better.

Only like that can you justify £950 for an RTX 4070 12GB.

GTX 970: £270
GTX 1070: £370
RTX 2070 Super: £480
RTX 3070Ti: £600
RTX 4070 12GB: £950

Seeing a pattern?
Click to expand...

I just remembered that I bought two GTX 970s back in the day to SLI them and felt like a king :D
 
humbug said:
Why have two GPU's when you can have one for the price of two?
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GTX 980 was poor value, it wasn't all that much better than 970 and it was much more expensive. Back then SLI was still a thing, most games supported it and GTX 970 SLI beat GTX 980 by a good margin in games that supported SLI and was only a tiny bit weaker in game that didn't, and was more or less the same price. It wasn't until Titan/980 Ti came out that a single GPU could match 970 SLI and even those were more expensive than two 970s. 970 SLI was an incredibly popular setup that generation. I did upgrade to the Titan though when it was released.
 
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humbug said:
If this works for Nvidia the RTX 5070 will be $1199 and also rebranded the RTX 5080 peasant edition. Mark my words.
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RTX 5070 12GB will be $1199, RTX 5070 16GB will be $1499.

Then RTX 5080 16GB will be $1699, RTX 5080 20GB will be $1999.

Then RTX 5090 20GB will be $2299, RTX 5090 24GB will be $2499.

Add some Ti models in between as well.
 
Chuk_Chuk said:
Nvidia took AI and RT seriously and it gave us a 600mm2 die, that is expensive produce and can not be sold at a good price unless Nvidia is willing to drop its margins.

I’m also not convinced that Nvidia is taking RT as seriously as they say but that is another story.
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It could pay of very well for them in the long run if the market continues on the path it is on though. I personally don't like the thought of only having 1 brand to choose from in this area...

What makes you say that? I would say it seems like they are putting all their eggs in one basket with it currently and hoping to grab the market by the balls here before anyone else does and even going to lengths where they have their own studio to mod/add in RT to classic games. People who think "nvidia pay for RT" was bad with ampere time.... I say wait and see what happens now given this is literally all nvidia has going for 40xx, they're going to make sure that they dominate here as chances are they're going to lose on every other front going forward for a while now. I wouldn't even be surprised if we see a lot more sponsored nvidia games suddenly amping up the RT effects and making use of 40xx optimisations & hardware to the point even ampere gpus will suffer with maxed RT.

An old article but given how it is easier listing new games, which don't have RT now, this kind of sums up nvidias future plan and it doesn't seem far of, they have now started pushing path tracing:

Ray tracing will be required by AAA games in 2023​


Nvidia's Morgan McGuire has predicted that the first AAA games to require raytracing will release in 2023. This suggests that all major gaming platforms will support ray tracing by this date. Furthermore, by around 2035, full-on Path Traced gaming is expected to become a reality in AAA titles.
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Personally I wouldn't say it is "required" though but from a developers/publishers and project budget POV, you can completely understand why it could classify as being "required". I also wouldn't be surprised if developers were in talks with amd about plans for the next gen/refresh consoles and how to focus on RT given the benefits for them.


Suppose we'll find out soon enough where RDNA 3 stands on RT, I just hope if AMD have improved it considerably, they will showcase the improvements on games like DL 2, CP 2077, the ascent and not godawful.
 
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  • Haha
Reactions: TNA
JediFragger said:
@Nexus18 It's already been confirmed that Massive's new Avatar game will require an RT-capable card to run it, I think that's due next year.
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True that. Be surprised if we see many RT only games though, especially outside of nvidia sponsorships but then again look at what 4a enhanced achieved with metro ee on the consoles and their positive comments on consoles RT capability.... so who knows.
 
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