Soldato
Think you have nailed it for me in this one - Used only in the depth of winter when its charged at cheap rate and possibly offset by really low dependence on the grid in peak summer. I'm fortunately in a position where ROI is clearly important but not a high priority and I guess if its not stressed by deep cycles will last well after the 10yr expected performance?
The ROI isn't an issue as such for me either, but I am adding solar and batteries to save money.
I just dug up the projection again.
Based on my projected usage of roughly 7500 kwh with my 5.4kw system and 11.6 (10.5 usable) battery I only expect to use around 840 peak rate units because of go.
With your numbers it would be even lower.
I am assuming you move to go here of course. The calcs could be very different without that tariff.
The problem is there are a lot of variables and you cant control most of them.
Peak/offpeak tariff availability and relative cost vs normal tariffs
Normal unit pricing, being the most significant ones.
My annual peak units would cost me £336 if I buy them peak, being able to charge them as off peak would cost £63. Thats basically the annual saving from a third battery for me.
In fact its slightly less since mine would fall just short of moving every unit to offpeak charge in Dec and Jan.
There is more to go wrong than just the degradation on the batteries.
Hope that helps a bit.