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*** The AMD RDNA 4 Rumour Mill ***

You have this on good authority, or is this just wild uneducated guess? Because lol if you think Nvidia will leave the OEM and low to mid range market for AMD to simply walk into.

All you show by that “guess” is that you don’t know how competitive business works.

The only way any company abandons a market to a rival, is if they can’t compete (see AMDs lack of top end hardware). Sometimes it’s not about maximising profit, but preventing your competition from gaining influence.
its an educated guess because:
1. they are running a one year backlog on supercomputing cards
2. gaming cards are going to use the same fabrication process as supercomputing cards (nvidia is not advancing to 3nm like apple)
3. nvidia has publicly stated that they want to crash the cadence for supercomputing GPUs to 1 year
4. fabrication capacity is currently constrained by supply - only TSMC 4nm shared between AMD and nvidia (this is not a competitive business anymore, supply constraints are a very big consideration, like in the case of natural resources)
5. supercomputing cards have 10-15x higher realizations than gaming cards per wafer

edit: i never mentioned abandonment, nvidia's marketshare in mid-range and lower territory is expected to drop, and amd is the next best competitor with the ability to absorb the demand
 
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None of which makes the concept of deliberately abandoning a market to a competitor a valid business strategy.

I could use the same flawed argument to say Nvidia will abandon the gaming GPU market entirely as it is not profitable enough. It would be a nonsensical “educated” guess, but it would be utterly wrong.

Nvidia will do what they have always done. Release the top end at ever higher prices, then once they have ran out of useful idiots, release the mid and lower end to much wailing because yet again the “mid range” is $100 more expensive. Then the whingers will buy them anyway because “they have a better feature set and if you look close enough at 400% zoom you can see DLSS is better than FSR and even native and Nvidia’s RT super reflective puddle has a bit more detail than AMDs reflective puddle”. Shut up and take my money Jensen, no I don’t mind if you don’t use lubricant Jensen.

Oh and then AMD will release a GPU that matches 3 year old tech for a few hundred bucks less than it was on release and wonder why people aren’t buying them.

There hasn’t been a decent GPU release from either of them for about a decade now.
 
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None of which makes the concept of deliberately abandoning a market to a competitor a valid business strategy.
where did i mention abandonment? market share contraction is not abandonment.. there are physical constraints on what nvidia and amd can achieve because of supply limitations, its a zero sum game (in terms of wafer quantity) with an obvious value maximization objective..

I could use the same flawed argument to say Nvidia will abandon the gaming GPU market entirely as it is not profitable enough. It would be a nonsensical “educated” guess, but it would be utterly wrong.
okay how did you reach this conclusion? nvidia may very well choose to abandon the market if above conditions are expected to persist in the long term.. you are just being myopic
.. but being a publicly listed company they cant just shutter the unit they will have to find other suitors willing to buy the GPU business
 
My made up point about Nvidia abandoning the gaming GPU market was deliberately ridiculous on purpose

Strategically Nvidia will not willingly allow AMD to gain market share. It took them decades to push Nvidia to this level of dominance.
 
My made up point about Nvidia abandoning the gaming GPU market was deliberately ridiculous on purpose

Strategically Nvidia will not willingly allow AMD to gain market share. It took them decades to push Nvidia to this level of dominance.
what if the same situation persists after 20 years, and the replacement demand from AI market far outstrips supply capacity?
your simplistic half-baked argument doesnt work for professionally managed companies.. what was looking ridiculous a moment ago suddenly starts looking sensible, doesnt it?
 
what if the same situation persists after 20 years, and the replacement demand from AI market far outstrips supply capacity?
your simplistic half-baked argument doesnt work for professionally managed companies.. what was looking ridiculous a moment ago suddenly starts looking sensible, doesnt it?

Nope, it doesn’t because the entire tech industry could look very different in 20 years, not just GPUs. Even 20 years ago it looked very different, when a cloud was what the sun hid behind and a tablet* was for medication.

You are moving the goalposts significantly and they are now near the corner flags. This is about now (or the next six months), not some far away future. Nvidia are not going to let AMD gain market share unless they have some serious problems with yields. The reason AMD stopped chasing the high end is because they weren’t competitive anyway. Nvidia deliberately tanking their dominance in gaming GPU market share is NOT going to happen anytime soon.

* This was a generalisation, please don’t start showing me links to tablet PCs from the 80s and 90s.
 
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You are moving the goalposts significantly and they are now near the corner flags. This is about now (or the next six months), not some far away future. Nvidia are not going to let AMD gain market share unless they have some serious problems with yields. The reason AMD stopped chasing the high end is because they weren’t competitive anyway. Nvidia deliberately tanking their dominance in GPU market share is NOT going to happen anytime soon.
no goalposts are being moved here.. you were the one who said "never" will nvidia abandon the gpu business on the basis of a sunk-cost fallacy
if nvidia has a reason to believe that these conditions will persist for the long term (this is a forward looking view- not a hindsight view), they may choose to abandon consumer gpu's, it can even happen in the next 5 years who knows?

the only goalpost that was being moved when you started talking about abandonment when i was merely talking about market share
 
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lol, that was exactly my point. Your entire premise was that you think Nvidia will allow AMD to take any of their market share in OEM or mid range gaming GPUs. Abandon, leave, reduce… it’s all semantics. Nvidia are not willingly going to leave market share for AMD to simply pick up.
 
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You really do seem desperate to make yourself look silly. You keep doing you. Let’s see how all your predictions turn out.

I have been reading click bait nonsense about Nvidia abandoning gaming for years now… yet here we are.
 
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People have been over this a few times. When it comes to wafer supply over the last few years with AMD in terms of priority:
1.)CPUs
2.)Consoles
3.)Enterprise dGPUs
4.)Consumer dGPUs

With Nvidia:
1.)Enterprise dGPUs
2.)Consumer dGPUs
3.)Tegra

AMD simply does not produce enough dGPUs and it's obvious they target more of the DIY market.The last time AMD had a very mass market dGPU was Polaris,which was produced at Global Foundries.

When it comes to prebuilt PCs,even in the UK which has a good supply of AMD cards,it's cheaper to specify Nvidia cards.

You can get an RTX4070 Super for the price of a RX7800XT,or an RTX4060 for the price of an RX7600,etc if you configure builds. It's pointless choosing an AMD card when Nvidia is better value.But many companies don't offer even AMD options - with laptops it's even worse. IIRC,Nvidia has well over 90% of that market. Compare that to the CPU market. So unless AMD bothers to allocate more wafers to dGPUs,then Nvidia will win by default.

If anything with Strix Halo,it seems they are more interested in building a faster IGP now.
 
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The move to iGPU for the lower end has always been on the cards (pun intended) and we have seen this as the lower end dGPUs market shrink each generation.

Like I said above Nvidia are not going to deliberately allow a competitor to take market share if they can help it. It is not a good idea for them to put all their eggs in the AI basket.

Conversely it was perfectly sensible for AMD to focus as much of their wafers on their very lucrative CPU business. Basically their high end GPU market share became so poor it made no financial sense to keep trying to compete.
 
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People have been over this a few times. When it comes to wafer supply over the last few years with AMD in terms of priority:
1.)CPUs
2.)Consoles
3.)Enterprise dGPUs
4.)Consumer dGPUs

With Nvidia:
1.)Enterprise dGPUs
2.)Consumer dGPUs
3.)Tegra

AMD simply does not produce enough dGPUs and it's obvious they target more of the DIY market.The last time AMD had a very mass market dGPU was Polaris,which was produced at Global Foundries.

When it comes to prebuilt PCs,even in the UK which has a good supply of AMD cards,it's cheaper to specify Nvidia cards.

You can get an RTX4070 Super for the price of a RX7800XT,or an RTX4060 for the price of an RX7600,etc if you configure builds. It's pointless choosing an AMD card when Nvidia is better value.But many companies don't offer even AMD options - with laptops it's even worse. IIRC,Nvidia has well over 90% of that market. Compare that to the CPU market. So unless AMD bothers to allocate more wafers to dGPUs,then Nvidia will win by default.

If anything with Strix Halo,it seems they are more interested in building a faster IGP now.

Not entirely true this, for the last decade AMD has had a problem with accumulated EOL dGPU stock, they are making more than they can sell.

Also....

£420


£530, £110 more

 
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I have that 7800 XT i linked, in terms of build quality and cooler performance its the best card i have ever owned, the previous card, an MSI 2070 S had a cooler twice the size and weight with much larger fans, it was a 220 watt GPU vs 240 watt, the cooler on that was less effective and louder.

With a few clicks i can get +15% performance actual out of it, 24/7 use easily and still cool and quiet, that puts it on par with an RTX 4070 Ti, still a £700 GPU, out of the box stock its also 15% faster in RT than the 4060 Ti 16GB which costs the same, its 40% faster in raster, out of the box.

The 4070 S has no business being over £500, the 4060 Ti 16GB has no business being over £400 and the 4070 Ti has no business being over £700, but they are..... because everyone thinks AMD cards are not worth anything, perpetuating that mindset will change nothing.
 
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Not entirely true this, for the last decade AMD has had a problem with accumulated EOL dGPU stock, they are making more than they can sell.
For years and years on here,I told all of you AMD over concentrating on DIY markets was not a good strategy. Nvidia,despite all the memes,makes products OEMs will want to use,and makes sure they are out in a lot of systems. This goes back to the GTX750TI,which was the beginning of the end of AMD's marketshare. RTX4060 is a meme card for DIY buyers but is a wonderful OEM product.ATI understood this is a bit better.

Half of RTX4060 cards on Steam are in laptops. Nvidia has more laptop RTX4060 cards on Steam than probably all AMD cards combined.

Look at TSMC wafer allocations post 2020. Nvidia at worst as been slightly behind AMD in wafer allocations,but in many years buys more than AMD.

AMD has to allocate wafers to CPUs,consoles,enterprise dGPUs and consumer dGPUs. So how is AMD going to match Nvidia in terms of the amount of dGPUs they can supply to the whole market? But all those OEMs,need enough volume - why you have 100x the amount of desktops/laptops after each card launch. That is free marketing there.

Look during the Pandemic? AMD sold EVERY card they produced but still sold massively less than Nvidia.They instead diverted all those wafers to consoles. That should tell you how little cards they make. I couldn't even find an RX6700XT at a reasonable price in the UK - Nvidia could actually supply cards at RRP.

@KompuKare has talked about AMD wafer priority for years. Just look at the massive revenue drop in AMD gaming sales - even by AMD's own admissions, a large chunk of that has been the downturn in consoles.

Problem is you are only looking at the UK or US which are priority markets. If you look at the larger picture,AMD has very little sales share or availability in places like Asia.If you travel around the world or have mates from other countries it is obvious AMD simply concentrates on a few richer markets such as the US,UK and Germany. Yet they are absent in many markets and the AMD graphics cards are not always cheaper or easy to get.

I realised this many years ago(before the pandemic),when the Lowcostgamer pointed out that in many regions such as South America,many AMD CPUs at the time were relatively more expensive than the Intel ones and harder to find. AMD targets key markets,which means entire markets don't get much allocation.

Nvidia like Intel has plenty of supply in most countries worldwide. The last real mass market AMD dGPU was Polaris - AMD had 30% share and you could find them in prebuilt systems.

AMD has barely any marketshare in laptops or prebuilt desktops - if they actually had share in those areas then they wouldn't need to be stuffing DIY channels with stock.

Nvidia had a massive oversupply of Ampere cards,but did you notice they didn't have any issues getting rid off it through prebuilt systems? This is why Ampere DIY prices didn't drop.

Plus even in the UK try specifying an AMD card in a prebuilt system - even an RX7800XT costs as much an RTX4070 Super.

Considering companies making desktops and laptops,like to save pennies on even motherboard heatsinks and coolers,they would be totally using AMD cards to save a few bucks. You saw that with Polaris,being the last range of AMD cards to hold any significant amount of share.

AMD's inability to sell it's oversupply of cards is really a fault of concentrating on a very limited number of markets and then not building relationships or supply agreements with large OEMs. Considering AMD makes entire laptop and desktop platforms,it shows a lack of strategy.

If Nvidia had a capable CPU platform,they would totally be using it to bundle their graphics cards. With AMD they have no strategy with RTG(or whatever it is called now) - RDNA4 even if fantastic can't be sustained by DIY sales.

It has to find mass market adoption in prebuilt systems - so unless AMD has a plan to do work with the large OEMs it will be a failure. They consistently also launch later after Nvidia,which means Nvidia has first mover advantage too.
 
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People don't buy AMD dGPU's in OEM just as they don't in retail, a 7800 XT speced OEM box costing the same as a 4070 S is not necessarily AMD's doing, do you think it is? I'll be honest i don't, why would they do that?

I think AMD would rather be competitive with Nvidia, i think they prioritize console because they can't sell dGPU's, its necessity rather than choice, as i said AMD are constantly left with EOL dGPU's they can't sell, regularly writing them off as a loss.

IMO they should have given up a long time ago and redirected those resources to one of the many things they are good at, but they keep trying, for generations i think they have been spending far more on R&D for GPU's than they get back in sales net, they are pulling money from profitable parts of the business to prop up dGPU's, does that seem like a company who cares least about dGPU's?

How do they turn this round? By matching Nvidia in RT and features, do i belive they can do that? No... i think AMD will catch up in RT and upscaling tech but Nvidia have 10X the R&D budget to draw on and by the time AMD catch up with Nvidia as they are today Nvidia will have something entirely new that every tech jurno will tell everyone is the reason not to buy AMD.
Its why i think AMD should throw in the towel and redirect that money.

What are they actually going to do? That ^^^ and concentrate on a more narrow more focused part of the market, good luck...
 
Exactly why I think it is a ludicrous idea that Nvidia would deliberately let AMD have access to markets Nvidia worked hard to win.

It’s more about keeping your opponent under pressure than purely about profits.

Nvidia will bump up the higher end 5080 and 5090 prices. Wait to see what AMD do with the 8800XT and counter at appropriate price/perf for their 5070 and lower.

AMD need to be absolutely idiotic to price the 8800Xt at anything more than $550. They need to be hitting over 4070Ti in raster and close in RT to make the 8800XT viable at even that price. The only saving grace is it is the replacement for the 7800XT so most likely will be about that price.

Let’s see how much AMD mess it up.
 
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Nvidia already have that. ^^^^

Exactly why I think it is a ludicrous idea that Nvidia would deliberately let AMD have access to markets Nvidia worked hard to win.

I agree AMD should stand on its own merits but also realise that not even AMD can work medicals as the under dog, the price of our GPU's is only on one trajectory, up and that is a choice made by Nvidia.
 
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