Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[muon]

What's right with Facebook? A for-profit, walled-garden version of the internet that tracks every detail of their customer's lives and actively filters out content that runs contrary to the corporation's politics.

The world is against people with your opinions right?

It's all a conspiracy.

 

[Tefal]

Yes that "special" relationship means that the tories would happily welcome private "investment" in the NHS.

The US "deal" would be let us access everything and we'll give you a tiny percentage of our markets...


I'm still surprised that anyone with any basic math can say that the UK would have spare cash should they leave.

The jittery markets post brexit would more than wipe out any money the UK pays into the EU which if my sums are right is about 1.3% of tax revenue.

Considering a large chunk of GDP is made by the financial markets....

Assuming revenue from tax is 648 billion and net contribution is around 8 billion.

I just wish that the OCUK forumites were this vociferous about the fact that there's 38 billion spent on defence !

Thats an incredibly short term view.

Eill the markets still be jittery in 30 years time?

 

[scorza]

The world is against people with your opinions right?

It's all a conspiracy.

http://gizmodo.com/want-to-know-what-facebook-really-thinks-of-journalists-1773916117

Suggest you have a read of that if you're thinking USS Facebook is taking us toward a benign, utopian future.

 

[Feef]

Very happy that I don't actually have to be in the country through all of this. From a safe distance, this thread can just be amusing for now, until any results come through. "Cretins", "losers" and "traitors" all on this page - seems to sum up the shambles this has turned in to.

Oh, and remain for me, incidentally, postal vote done Not getting involved beyond that, but I would think that anyone hoping to convince casual browsers either way of their points are not going to achieve anything through their posts here other than putting people off the whole thing.

 

[oneilldo]

Not so it would seem.

https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showpost.php?p=29598734&postcount=2070

Nate

Depends on what you class as "young". Was reported on daily politics this morning around 10 mins in before it was agreed. I would say ~60% of people being under 35 would mean more of these new registrations would vote to remain.
The gurdian shows
link
age remain leave
18-34 53 29
35-54 38 42
55+ 30 54

So if you assume its 100k new registrations that will happen in this new window and it follows similar ratios to the 7th then 60% are under 35 and 40% are over. I'll assume a split of the 35-54 and 55+ groups evenly
So
Age #pop Remain Leave
18-34 60000 31800 17400
35-54 20000 7600 8400
55+ 20000 6000 10800

This gives 82k voters from a population of 100k with 45,400 voting remain and 36,600 voting leave. Or 55.4% for remain and 44.6% for leave

NB: I don't have a problem with the extension ad the above were quick calculations that don't take into account the differences of likelihood to vote depending on age range. However I think you could argue fairly that someone who was registering last minute may have suddenly become interested in voting and most of the last minute registrations will actually vote

 

[Darujhistan]

I'm still not understanding why this is a bad thing.

My biggest reason for wanting to leave the EU is democracy. The EU is unquestionably undemocratic; some would say anti-democratic. **** immigration, **** trade policy, **** the economy - I care that the people who make the rules we're expected to obey, sooner or later have to face up to us unwashed masses and explain themselves.

So when I hear about more people being engaged with the democratic process, especially who otherwise might not have been, I cannot help but see it as an excellent thing.

They're not engaged, it's just what's trending.


Sorry, Trendin'.

 

[bayo000]

So what. Who here would genuinely have a problem with electoral registration up until the day of the vote (if it was logistically feasible)? It is good for democracy to have a higher turnout.

I actually don't get how it is not possible at this day and age. If a person has their ID and NI number they should be able to walk into any polling station and vote.

 

[SlyReaper]

They're not engaged, it's just what's trending.


Sorry, Trendin'.

What does this even mean?

 

[oneilldo]

I imagine he is implying that the youth are essentially registering as its what all their mates are doing on facebook. Facebook likes to put things on the newsfeed or whatever its called now of topical things so if lots are people are saying hay I've registered then this will show on the news feed as "trending" and thus their peers are more likely to do it. Much like changing your profile picture en masse.

It remains to be seen if they then go on to vote or not. Hopefully they will and take more of an interest.

 

[Darujhistan]

What does this even mean?

You know what it means, despite blanket coverage for months and debate that goes back at least into early 2015 when Cameron was talking about reform, it takes social media to 'engage' them at the last minute?

They're not engaged, if they were they'd have been better informed and signed up months ago.

It's just what's trendin' for these people.

 

[davewhite04]

I actually don't get how it is not possible at this day and age. If a person has their ID and NI number they should be able to walk into any polling station and vote.

Forgery is easy.

 

[Darujhistan]

I imagine he is implying that the youth are essentially registering as its what all their mates are doing on facebook. Facebook likes to put things on the newsfeed or whatever its called now of topical things so if lots are people are saying hay I've registered then this will show on the news feed as "trending" and thus their peers are more likely to do it. Much like changing your profile picture en masse.

It remains to be seen if they then go on to vote or not. Hopefully they will and take more of an interest.

Exactly, it's just herd behaviour which is exactly what FB encourages.

 

[SlyReaper]

You know what it means, despite blanket coverage for months and debate that goes back at least into early 2015 when Cameron was talking about reform, it takes social media to 'engage' them at the last minute?

They're not engaged, if they were they'd have been better informed and signed up months ago.

It's just what's trendin' for these people.

No I don't know what it means. You seem to be suggesting that if someone was pushed over the threshold of caring by a social media thing, that this is somehow bad. I seriously don't get it.

 

[davewhite04]

I imagine he is implying that the youth are essentially registering as its what all their mates are doing on facebook. Facebook likes to put things on the newsfeed or whatever its called now of topical things so if lots are people are saying hay I've registered then this will show on the news feed as "trending" and thus their peers are more likely to do it. Much like changing your profile picture en masse.

It remains to be seen if they then go on to vote or not. Hopefully they will and take more of an interest.

Hopefully they won't vote you mean.

 

[PapaLazaru]

Hopefully they won't vote you mean.

Quite the opposite.

If it takes FB to motive our younger possible voters, it can only be a good thing.

 

[bam0]

That's just wrong.

Well, it's not, and your post below does nothing to address what I was saying

Trade fluctuates all the time, but UK-EU trade has been dropping for several years. Currently, UK-RestofWorld trade is hampered by the fact that we are not allowed to enter trade deals with other (non-EU) countries. With non-EU countries, we either have to trade without a trade deal at all, or we have to trade through EU trade deals. Currently, any non-EU country seeking to trade with the UK is trading with an EU member, and so that country is on the outside of the protectionist barriers that are the EU customs union borders, and so are at a disadvantage compared to trading with the UK once a Brexit was completed.

What is utterly certain is that UK -EU trade will continue, in substantial part, even if we leave. For the reasons why, read that German report on the potential impact of Brexit. Terms will change, and volumes may to a point, but nobody knows, or can know, how much volumes will change or what terms will be until it happens. But it is certain that major EU countries will not just cease exporting to the UK. We are a small country but still a big economy, and doing that would hurt not just the UK but also, for example, Germany and France. Neither side want that.

Trade costs with the EU will perhaps rise, but trade ultimately is determined by consumers. Will UK customers stop buying BMW and Mercedes? Not unless the UK government slaps enormous tariffs on them (despite WTO rules) and the same applies the other way round.

Will there be an effect? Almost certainly. But nobody knows how much because the negotiations have yet to take place.

But just as leaving the EU means the UK would be outside those protectionist barriers when trading into the EU, we and everybody except the EU would be outside when trading with each other. The costs currently incurred by non-EU countries trading with the UK as a result of us being inside those barriers disappear if we are outside, meaning that if EU tariff and non-tariff costs with the EU go up, costs with others go down, for them and us.

It is entirely reasonable to suppose that trade with non-EU countries goes up if the costs of that trade, with the UK, go down. By how much our trade with the EU and others varies remains to be seen, but it is certainly not laughable to see it go up, and very possibly significantly. It's been going up anyway, without being outside the barriers. One reason at least some existing trade is intra-EU is because, currently, we're inside those protectionist barriers.

And by the way, I say this as a UK national that's been living overseas for a very long time, running businesses and that, in the past, looked to the UK for trade but was so put off by the hoops EU paperwork put me through that I gave up and focussed elsewhere.

Saying that trade is ultimately determined by consumers may be true, but misses the bigger picture. The companies that are selling need to be making a profit. If British exports become more expensive they'll face more competition from other suppliers. The sales with the lowest overheads currently are to the massive market that is geographically on our doorstep, but it does not follow that a reduction in exports of widgets, agricultural produce, medical equipment, etc to that market will automatically be picked up by exporting those same things to another market.
The cost of shipping to those other markets, the inflexibility due to shipping times, perishing of goods to reach other markets, no market for our goods, different standards and regulations for those markets.
As I said it is laughable to suggest that our current exports to the EU could be perfectly replaced with exports to other markets.

 

[Tefal]

I actually don't get how it is not possible at this day and age. If a person has their ID and NI number they should be able to walk into any polling station and vote.

So ive got an NI number and an old paper drivers license with no picture

Should i be able to just walk in?

 

[Tefal]

Well, it's not, and your post below does nothing to address what I was saying



Saying that trade is ultimately determined by consumers may be true, but misses the bigger picture. The companies that are selling need to be making a profit. If British exports become more expensive they'll face more competition from other suppliers. The sales with the lowest overheads currently are to the massive market that is geographically on our doorstep, but it does not follow that a reduction in exports of widgets, agricultural produce, medical equipment, etc to that market will automatically be picked up by exporting those same things to another market.
The cost of shipping to those other markets, the inflexibility due to shipping times, perishing of goods to reach other markets, no market for our goods, different standards and regulations for those markets.
As I said it is laughable to suggest that our current exports to the EU could be perfectly replaced with exports to other markets.

I suppose though a lot of manufactuerers that dont currently sell to the eu could save money by no longer having to meet euro standards

 

[JohnnyG]

Please try to discuss the topic all and stay away from personal digs.

 

[Tefal]

I imagine he is implying that the youth are essentially registering as its what all their mates are doing on facebook. Facebook likes to put things on the newsfeed or whatever its called now of topical things so if lots are people are saying hay I've registered then this will show on the news feed as "trending" and thus their peers are more likely to do it. Much like changing your profile picture en masse.

It remains to be seen if they then go on to vote or not. Hopefully they will and take more of an interest.

Actually a big one is twitter theyve made a new emoticon for it with a hashtag.


They said when they last did this something like 80% of the registrations on the launch day where of the under 24 bracket