Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[ncncore]

I am currently leaning towards in.

 

[Mulder]

The Scottish polls weren't that bad. They under-estimated the final lead for 'No'; but there were hardly any polls showing a 'Yes', and the polling averages always stayed solidly in the 'No' range.

Contrast that with the Brexit polling and you'll see far more showing a Leave lead. A week tomorrow we'll know how accurate they are.

Fair point. Fingers crossed the Brexit momentum hasn't peaked too soon!

 

[eatcustard]

The LSE a paid up pro EU load of carp.

I can make up more credible arguments then them

 

[phil675]

Heh

Leaving might make it for possible for these doctors and engineers to arrive on a plane I suppose.

 

[Danthus]

 

[Skunkworks]

Anyone who enters the UK illegally should never be allowed to remain. I don’t care if they still have bullets in them, use the proper channels.

 

[Rilot]

Please tell me how leaving the EU will prevent illegal migrants entering the country. The very fact that they are illegal migrants means that they won't be respecting any border controls.

 

[Darujhistan]

Originally Posted by Mulder View Post
I haven't seen any research on it (haven't looked tbh) but the opinion polls did get it pretty wrong. I wouldn't place too much faith in the current swing in favour of Brexit (not saying that you did).


They didn't get it wrong there was one rogue poll. The polls for Scots ref were pretty consistent and accurate.

The Gen Election on the other hand was a disaster for pollsters.

 

[platypus]

The LSE a paid up pro EU load of carp.

I can make up more credible arguments then them

Not on the evidence to hand..

 

[PapaLazaru]

Leaving might make it for possible for these doctors and engineers to arrive on a plane I suppose.

Yep, let's vote leave so the French can try less hard to waive them though.

Some good logic there.

 

[Mr Jack]

Fair point. Fingers crossed the Brexit momentum hasn't peaked too soon!

Behind the headline numbers - which, in my view are too close to be sure of the result from in either direction - there are other numbers that suggest that Brexit is winning the argument. On the economy, more people believe they will be better off under Brexit than believe they will be worse off and immigration has pushed past the economy as the number one concern. Even on the £350m figure that has been so widely slated, more people believe it is accurate than not. This all suggests that my side are not getting the argument through to the public, while Leave are getting their talking points to the top and have successfully neutered the Remain arguments.

I am increasingly concerned.

 

[Mr Jack]

The Gen Election on the other hand was a disaster for pollsters.

The GE polls weren't actually that far out (~3% for Labour/Tory) but the close run nature of the thing meant that their error completely changed the outcome. The result was even more skewed by the way the vote fell; the Tories won more seats that was predicted for the vote they got.

 

[eatcustard]

Not on the evidence to hand..

exactly

 

[eatcustard]

You would expect the polls to be more accurate with a 50-50 choice, but I still think its open and they must be taken with a pinch of salt

 

[RDM]

In terms of unemployment, no. In terms of salary there has been some research that suggests a small net negative impact for low skilled workers and a overall net positive, however the LSE's more comprehensive research found no evidence of any negative effect on wages or unemployment for UK born workers.

(In both cases, the slope of the line is statistically indistinguishable from zero)

The graphs sort of prove my point to be honest. Aggregate data does indeed level out the impact but there are an awful lot of those data points that do show a negative impact. The overall impact may be positive, the individual impacts can be negative.

Anecdotally there are a couple of factories in this area that now employ almost exclusively Polish/Romanian workforces. These are jobs that were previously done be low skilled local labour, even generationally.

 

[Narj]

Even on the £350m figure that has been so widely slated, more people believe it is accurate than not.

That figure has annoyed me and people aren't taking into account that we will need to continue supporting most of the current recipients of subsidies so there won't be as much extra cash as they think.

Re: Subsidies, I say "most" because for example, I'm sure there will be some savings in not paying rich landowners for doing sod all with their land anymore. (Old story but I wouldn't be surprised if not much has changed)

Still out for me, though.

 

[scorza]

Please tell me how leaving the EU will prevent illegal migrants entering the country. The very fact that they are illegal migrants means that they won't be respecting any border controls.

The ECJ won't be able to stop us deporting them under the charter of fundamental human rights, which the ECJ decided did apply to the UK despite Tony Blair telling us he'd secured an "opt-out"

 

[Six6siX]

Fair enough, there are a lot of idiots on both sides, which is to be expected.

I think the counter frustration from many Brexit supporters (me included) is that a lot of remainers will just put way too much faith in "official" or supposedly "respected" organisations without actually looking into the detail and making a reasoned judgement on their own. It's easy to say "but the IMF says, but the LSE says, but the FT says" but if you don't have the slightest grasp that these organisations can often have other motives (IMF & Greece, LSE and cash, FT and big business, for example) then you're a bit naive.

I'd be inclined to agree - that's a frustration for both sides really. Look at how the inaccurate quoting of figures out of context on both campaigns has ended up

It all has to be taken in context though and it could actually be useful to know where a particular allegiance lies. If multiple organisations start to independently put out data that suggests similar trends and figures despite their various allegiances, it could be looked at as a more reliable conclusion.

Unfortunately, impartial information is a scarce commodity in the media we have access to as it stands, so we just have to make do!

 

[Uther]

Heh

Leaving might make it for possible for these doctors and engineers to arrive on a plane I suppose.

 

[Mr Jack]

The graphs sort of prove my point to be honest. Aggregate data does indeed level out the impact but there are an awful lot of those data points that do show a negative impact. The overall impact may be positive, the individual impacts can be negative.

Hmm, not really. It could be interpreted as immigration having an either positive or negative impact and these exactly balancing out, but a more likely interpretation is that there is no impact from immigration and the position above or below the line is driven by other factors.