Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[John40]

Agree. The massive swing in favour of Brexit I would say would likely work in favour of remain.

What massive swing the polls have hardly changed, certainly not by enough to make anyone think OUT could really win.

 

[eatcustard]

and 170,000 more unemployed.

but when we control immigration the job losses would only effect immigrants,as they seem to be taking all the jobs at the moment.

 

[Mr Jack]

Where did I use the word "rigged"?

That was your implication.

By your own words a change to the polling methodology has been implement which suddenly showed a swing to Leave. I'm just a little bit sceptical that's all.

Actually, the swing is there anyway. The change in methodology just adds to it. There's no more reason to believe it's a conspiracy than there is to believe that Opinium's methodological change that produced a swing to Remain was a conspiracy. This is pollsters trying to give the most accurate poll they can, nothing more.

 

[Six6siX]

but when we control immigration the job losses would only effect immigrants,as they seem to be taking all the jobs at the moment.

Do they? Source required.

 

[Mr Badger]

many conspiracy theory's are correct and the phrase "conspiracy theory" is often used as a by word for crack pot, when the fact is governments, organisations and groups of people regularly engage in conspiracy's.

To be fair, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they aren't out to get you.

 

[eatcustard]

What massive swing the polls have hardly changed, certainly not by enough to make anyone think OUT could really win.

Its swung 10 points in the last week to the outers, thats big, but I take polls as a pinch of salt

 

[Mr Jack]

but when we control immigration the job losses would only effect immigrants,as they seem to be taking all the jobs at the moment.

Actually immigration has no negative impact on the employment rate of British workers in the UK.

 

[platypus]

but when we control immigration the job losses would only effect immigrants,as they seem to be taking all the jobs at the moment.

Prove this.

 

[RDM]

Actually immigration has no negative impact on the employment rate of British workers in the UK.

I thought it was a little bit more nuanced than that and certain parts of society were negatively impacted by immigration even though the overall impact was economically positive?

 

[Zethor]

I don't expect unicorns.

According to your post, you do expect unicorns. It's a metaphor for having no clue what to expect but hoping for good things anyway.

 

[UTmaniac]

but when we control immigration the job losses would only effect immigrants,as they seem to be taking all the jobs at the moment.

Actually immigration has no negative impact on the employment rate of British workers in the UK.

I'd be amazed if the truth was not somewhere between these two polar statements.

 

[Mr Jack]

I thought it was a little bit more nuanced than that and certain parts of society were negatively impacted by immigration even though the overall impact was economically positive?

In terms of unemployment, no. In terms of salary there has been some research that suggests a small net negative impact for low skilled workers and a overall net positive, however the LSE's more comprehensive research found no evidence of any negative effect on wages or unemployment for UK born workers.

(In both cases, the slope of the line is statistically indistinguishable from zero)

 

[eatcustard]

Prove this.

It was on a TV programme the other day (Sky I think)

Someone was saying (a Prof) that if things go fubar its the bottom end that gets hit hardest and most the migrants coming in are unskilled, so they are the ones that get hit first.

I will try to find out which programme it is

 

[thep02]

To be fair, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they aren't out to get you.

In fact the accurate perception that people are out to get a person probably makes that person even more paranoid, I wonder if that was an aim of the folk who are out to get him.

 

[John40]

Its swung 10 points in the last week to the outers, thats big, but I take polls as a pinch of salt

Exactly, hardly massive, nowhere near enough for Leave to be at all confident.

 

[Mr Jack]

Someone was saying (a Prof) that if things go fubar its the bottom end that gets hit hardest and most the migrants coming in are unskilled, so they are the ones that get hit first.

But this not the case, in fact EU immigration does not harm the wages of the low skilled:

 

[Six6siX]

I thought it was a little bit more nuanced than that and certain parts of society were negatively impacted by immigration even though the overall impact was economically positive?

The range of immigrant workers in various industries makes up on average between 0.5 - 2% of the given industry workforce - obviously some industries have a greater percentage than others (those are rough figures from memory - the source was posted earlier in this thread). It is generally agreed that the economic benefit is positive (both due to taxes paid and due to boost in skills) and that the impact to (un)employment levels was negligible. In fact, the unemployment levels are some of the lowest we've seen in a while.

The major points of contention are over 'pushing down wages' due to supply and demand (but this is somewhat nullified by the figures stated above), and social issues such as immigrant 'hubs' and their associated issues. I suggest that these anti social areas are no different to british 'chavs' and that the problem is equally a home grown one as it is to do with immigration and the issues are equally isolated.

 

[scorza]

In terms of unemployment, no. In terms of salary there has been some research that suggests a small net negative impact for low skilled workers and a overall net positive, however the LSE's more comprehensive research found no evidence of any negative effect on wages or unemployment for UK born workers.

There's just one thing wrong with that - I don't believe anything the LSE says about immigration. They've been wrong so many times on this subject, so widely discredited, they're not to be believed. They should close down that part of their institution and let other universities do it with different people.

 

[Mr Jack]

There's just one thing wrong with that - I don't believe anything the LSE says about immigration. They've been wrong so many times on this subject, so widely discredited, they're not to be believed. They should close down that part of their institution and let other universities do it with different people.

You choosing to reject things that don't fit your pre-existing views doesn't actually make something count as "widely discredited".

 

[scorza]

That was your implication.



Actually, the swing is there anyway. The change in methodology just adds to it. There's no more reason to believe it's a conspiracy than there is to believe that Opinium's methodological change that produced a swing to Remain was a conspiracy. This is pollsters trying to give the most accurate poll they can, nothing more.

Funnily enough, they're talking about the problems polling companies are having on DP right now.