Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (March Poll)

[Tunney]

At the general election in 2015, the ocuk final poll had the Tories on 42.15% of the vote. The actual result had the Tories on 41% of the vote and a majority government. Nearly all of the national polls were so far out that they became a complete laughing stock. It is more than possible that the ocuk referendum poll could be very accurate, going by last years election result i would trust it a lot more than the poll of polls.

Not quite. Reposting from the old thread:

Party: OCuk / actual result (difference)

Conservatives: 42% / 37% (+5)
Labour: 18% / 30% (-12)
Lib Dem: 7% / 8% (-1)
UKIP: 16% / 13% (+3)
Green: 6% / 4% (+2)
SNP: 4% / 5% (-1)

 

[itchy]

On that basis, we're leaving. The younger vote is strongly on the remain side while the grey vote is strongly on the leave side. Although you can explain that difference by difference in education (people with degrees skew massively towards remain and few older people have degrees).

I am trying to stay out of this and sit on the fence.

But what a condescending statement to make?

So you saying education and degrees out educate and over rule age and wisdom.

How bloody thick can you get!!!!

Old people know there stuff and I would bet on a old person more than some young jumpstart.

I am a million times much wiser now than 10 years ago and am only 43.

Age is experience and life, education is being told what to do and how to do it.

Hence the disparity of votes between the young and old.

I see both sides and I also see the future, it comes with age to you young folk!

I seen a comment today saying if Turkey is joining the EU am voting out.
I was busy at the time, but yes they are joining the EU.

Fast track Visa system coming into play with Turkey, being fast tracked into the EU within a few years.

To all the other sniper pro EU crowd, its not about immigration or jobs.

How about being your own boss and take charge instead of being dictated to by some unelected bureaucrat in another country.

 

[Outcast]

I don't know the volumes for the age groups that vote the most but I would have said 35 through to 65+, however that could easily be 45+ or 55+. Generally the people that actually vote are older and as far as I am aware they have a stronger leaning towards out.

I shall be 55 next month (Hitlers Birthday actually !!)

OUT

 

[v0n]

I am trying to stay out of this and sit on the fence.

But what a condescending statement to make?

So you saying education and degrees out educate and over rule age and wisdom.

How bloody thick can you get!!!!

Old people know there stuff and I would bet on a old person more than some young jumpstart.

I am a million times much wiser now than 10 years ago and am only 43.

It is true however, that unlike 40+ age bracket, the younger generation mostly consider themselves European (in addition to being Briton and being English) and don't see their nationality as a preferential birthright or something exclusive and clashing with the idea of being European or "citizen of the world". And that trait is directly linked to their life experience and education.

With the notable exception of "outer rim" areas, most young people already actively live in modern (global) Britain. By the age of 20 most have already met variety of people from different backgrounds throughout their school years, they don't hold onto any pre-programmed "old school" prejudices, they don't fear races or foreigners and they don't perceive cultural differences or ethnicity as something lesser to their native heritage or an obstacle.

At 43, and (I'm going to guess here) from an "outer rim" area, you yearn for life from before the globalisation. You want the world that's irreversibly gone. You want the neighbours to ask about weather as they pass you by. You want your Sunday walk route to the park to be without mosques and african churches in every crevice and corner. You want the market squares in small towns to be once again devoid of odd looking people speaking in tongues and selling veg and fruit you don't even recognise. Coffee shops where you don't have to feel weird repeating your order twice just because the girl behind the counter can't understand your very much appropriate and local accent. You want to once again be able to travel back to those times when you could crack a joke about rugby game currently up on the big telly to the guy at the next table in your local pub and for him not to give you completely blank stare, not understanding the game, your Harry Enfield reference and the reason why you insist on diverting his focus from some foreign language blog on his laptop.

In short - you want the world that no Brexit, no treaty and probably not even war could provide ever again.

Nothing is as it used to be. At some point between your childhood and your forties, the world has moved on slightly faster than you were expecting and you just couldn't keep up. Something was done while you weren't watching to your sweet land. Someone is to blame. You hope it's those evil "aliens", but it isn't. It's not just your town. It's not your country. It is the planet. The whole world is mixed together. Nothing is the same. And everyone is everywhere. You are the only common denominator. The problem is in you.

And you can refuse to believe it. You can be one of "those guys" - like Nigel or Le Pen or Donald Trump. You can hope that maybe, somehow, if the door closes behind the good foreigners before the bad foreigners come, if we put armed guards at the door or build a wall, maybe, just maybe we can turn it around. And the good old days will somehow come back. Perhaps you even hope that if there is enough people like you, together, en masse, to carry the torches, to quietly agree that separatism or xenophobia "for better tomorrow" or "for good" is acceptable if you hide it under the banner of "patriotism" and "sovereignty", to oppose to this "swarm", to this "flood" of "foreign influence" - maybe it can be stopped, if only for a minute.

But that's not how the world works. Just like your oldest predecessors couldn't stop Saxons, Romans, Vikings, Normans, Romani, Huguenots and Jews, just like your grand father couldn't stop post colonial Indians, Africans and WWII migrants and just like your father couldn't stop Irish, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and the Caribbean from changing that familiar world around them, you will never be able to stop the world from constantly changing. And you cannot blame it for taking you over and moving on. You can not stop it, Nigel can not stop it, Donald can not stop it. It will never be the way it used to or the same again. In the next 43 years, you won't even recognise it.

Your approach - that "you know better" - is wrong too. This whole thing (waves with finger around) - is not about you. It's for the records. It's for the young generation. For their children. If they are happy with the world around them, then just accept that you might be lost and out of place. That it might be you who is wrong and disconnected. And stop ****** it up for them just because you told yourself that "your million times much wiser" or your generation "know there stuff". Accept that you might actually not have a full picture or "know better".

Ask yourself: will Brexit bring back the world you really, really want? Do you really expect the vote to be shortly followed by forces in brown shirts with pitchforks packing "them aliens" to cattle trains to send them "back home". The jobs "stolen" won't be returned to those that never really wanted them in the first place. Unskilled labourers in McDonalds won't be paid £20 an hour. Refugees won't stop seeking refuge. Migrants won't stop migrating. Locals won't start breeding at twice the speed. European nations won't stop ageing. We won't stop relying on far eastern manufacturing and cheap, temporary workforce for basic survival of outnumbered pension systems securing your future.
And if nothing you really cared for changed but thanks to your efforts the Britain of your grand children is no longer part of one of the worlds biggest economies, no longer part of something that every nation in Europe wanted to be in and on top - we all have to queue to visa offices - then what was gained?

 

[izzop]

I'm more interested in what the older generation that actually vote think as the polls are always way off. They always seem to underestimate the older vote.

GD were pretty spot on in the last few votes. Perhaps they are more aligned with people that actually vote.

Speaking with my Dad who's in his 70's, he's a firm "Out".

 

[Tefal]

It is true however, that unlike 40+ age bracket, the younger generation mostly consider themselves European

Do we?


I have never met any British person who has called themselves "European" or considers themselves such.

 

[scorza]

There are still people in Turkey who want to join the EU but the hugely popular government do not, pay it lip service to keep those who want it happy but are actively moving further away from any recognisable process to make it's institutions ready to join the EU.

You only have to look at the news to know Turkey's been on a divergent path since 2013 and probably some time before (We only get the big news, I'm sure EU diplomats knew more earlier).

Are you sure about that? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35749837

The EU and Turkey say they have agreed the broad principles of a plan to ease the migration crisis at a summit in Brussels, but delayed a final decision.

European Council President Donald Tusk said all irregular migrants arriving in Greece from Turkey would be returned.

For each Syrian returned, Turkey wants the EU to accept a recognised Syrian refugee, and offer more funding and progress on EU integration.

Because the EU have so badly mis-handled this crisis, they were in no position to go to the negotiating table with Turkey but did so anyway (more incompetence). As a result Turkey utterly dominated them. And we want to be a part of this?

 

[Freakbro]

I am trying to stay out of this and sit on the fence.

Really? Because you have portrayed yourself as quite firmly an OUT voter

So you saying education and degrees out educate and over rule age and wisdom.

He didn't say it over ruled anything, just it was a reason for the difference. And yes, funnily enough having an education and degree does out educate people without them....that's sort of like, the definition.

How bloody thick can you get!!!!

I don't know, but you are showing us what near absolute zero looks like

I am a million times much wiser now than 10 years ago and am only 43.

Now that is a scary thought!

Age is experience and life, education is being told what to do and how to do it.

Actually education is about empowering one with knowledge and teaching someone the tools so they can work out things on their own.

I see both sides and I also see the future, it comes with age to you young folk!

Can you tell me this weeks lottery numbers then please, as I'm older than you and I can't see the future.

 

[deuse]

Do we?


I have never met any British person who has called themselves "European" or considers themselves such.

Same here. All my friends and family call themselves English.

 

[itchy]

Really? Because you have portrayed yourself as quite firmly an OUT voter.

We know that. am talking about the debate about the EU.

As for the other post am not that bloody old, you talking 60s group with that mind set.

All I can see in the pro EU crowd is...........

.

Not going to happen is it really?

 

[Mr Jack]

But what a condescending statement to make?

So you saying education and degrees out educate and over rule age and wisdom.

I'm saying that is what the polling data on who supports Remain or Leave says. You can put whatever interpretation on the data you like; but the fact remains that education is the principle predictive factor for who votes one way or another - among people who have degrees there is strong support for Remain, among people who don't have degrees there isn't.

 

[413x]

I do think it will be exactly like the Scottish referendum
And people will buckle near the time and vote in

I'm sticking to out all the way through

I think the eu block will want revenge (it's so petty) either way. If we stay in, they'll have one over on us. And I would have rathered no referendum

 

[thep02]

What would you rather do: help Turkey look after the millions of refugees via monetary aid or watch Turkey collapse and be forced to take the refugees ourselves?

Leave them to stew in their own adventurism and laugh my ******** off watching them collapse with our borders well blocked off because of prior experience of them and their weaponised refugees.

 

[McBain]

100% out.

 

[Uther]

Are you sure about that? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35749837



Because the EU have so badly mis-handled this crisis, they were in no position to go to the negotiating table with Turkey but did so anyway (more incompetence). As a result Turkey utterly dominated them. And we want to be a part of this?

I love how everyone is saying that Turkey won't be joining the EU...

 

[Trifid]

I'm saying that is what the polling data on who supports Remain or Leave says. You can put whatever interpretation on the data you like; but the fact remains that education is the principle predictive factor for who votes one way or another - among people who have degrees there is strong support for Remain, among people who don't have degrees there isn't.

It is interesting looking back at past political polls here and the perceived demographic which consists of:
Younger audience
Better then average education
Above average income and has a healthy disposable income that allows pursuit of more expensive hobbies

And yet there is a definite pro-leave stance which contradicts the official polls on both outcome and the likely voting intentions of the demographic.

 

[deuse]

I'm saying that is what the polling data on who supports Remain or Leave says. You can put whatever interpretation on the data you like; but the fact remains that education is the principle predictive factor for who votes one way or another - among people who have degrees there is strong support for Remain, among people who don't have degrees there isn't.

Not the nursing\doctor staff I deal with on a weekly basis. They are all voting out. My doctor and dentist are voting out.

 

[McBain]

My bus driver is voting in.

 

[delta0]

I'm saying that is what the polling data on who supports Remain or Leave says. You can put whatever interpretation on the data you like; but the fact remains that education is the principle predictive factor for who votes one way or another - among people who have degrees there is strong support for Remain, among people who don't have degrees there isn't.

I have 2 degrees and will be voting out. My office has a very high proportion of degrees and all are voting out. The only people that have said they want to remain aren't British and so can't vote anyway. I have yet to meet a single person that is eligible to vote and wants to remain.

 

[ColdAsIce]

This will go down exactly like the Scottish referendum. Scare tactics will definitely make people buckle under the pressure.

Currently undecided which way I will vote.