Caporegime
That's not how the EU works.
Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (March Poll)
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That's not how the EU works.
Caporegime
Also: what proportion of exports from Poland, Sweden or Bulgaria go to the UK? The UK's new deal will require unanimous approval from the EU member states. It's not enough for Germany, say, to be keen on getting a new deal in the bag, we'll need to persuade every country in the EU.
Soldato
Latest from Project Fear: Vote Leave and you'll starve
In the extremely unlikely event of Spain deciding to screw over its own farmers and putting food sanctions on the UK, we'll just buy our food from somewhere else - like France, USA, Canada...
That's not how I meant it and you know it. All I was trying to point out is that as someone who needs to buy something you are usually at a mercy of the seller. Of course there are other options out there but just because you have money it doesn't automatically mean you can buy what you need at a price you want to pay
Soldato
There is £89bn gap between exports to UK from EU vs exports from UK to EU, in favour of EU to UK. The UK very much has the upper hand in the trade negotiations. The UK outside the EU would represent 21% of all EU trade which is more than USA and Japan combined. The UK outside the EU would be the biggest market for the EU.
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Soldato
Soldato
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This would not happen for a whole range of reasons, with the most obvious being that triggering a trade war with the fifth largest economy in the world would be a disaster for the EU. And threatening our country with starvation would almost certainly lead to division and war throughout Europe. So let us put aside these nonsense scenarios and look at the reality:
We have money, they have goods they need to sell so they WILL sell to us. And they won't be punitive, because we can always go elsewhere for many of these goods. If they stick tariffs on our exports, we'll put tariffs on their imports. This will make them less competitive and harm their sales.
If we leave the EU, we'll have a good deal. It won't be all our own way of course, they'll want things too. But on the whole we'll not be any worse off than we are now.
Caporegime
So what if our foods a bit more expensive, it's a price I'm willing to pay to slow down the incessant immigration.
Soldato
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What about non-EU immigration which makes up about 50% of those coming into the UK? Most of the ghettos in the UK are made up of non-EU citizens, not Poles and Romanians.
Soldato
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They'll do it because the individual member states have a thing called "self interest". Who do you think France cares more about, France or the EU? if they have to choose between damaging their own economy or the EU project, they'll almost certainly choose they'll choose to let the EU take the hit.
I am not saying that we'll have things all our own way, but the deal we'd get will be satisfactory to us.
Soldato
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx
And you're being selective with your figures. I'll help you by posting the one you're avoiding mentioning,
I think looking at the cash value of imports and exports is less important than the proportion, given the big difference between the size of the UK economy and the collective rEU economy. Is that unfair? Why?
Furthermore, you basically claim that trade will continue as now just because it's sensible financially... but the finances are one consideration. Eg. why would the EU give the UK all the benefits of the EU without any of the obligations? Eg. a contribution to its budget/accepting free movement of people/etc? If they did, what would stop other countries following the UK out of the door? Why would France and Germany want to stay in the EU if they could 'do a UK' and leave whilst retaining all the benefits?
The total is far more relevant than a number that has been decreasing significantly year on year.
The corrupt way that Brussels works with lobbying by business will actually work in our favour as VW group and many many more businesses will make sure their goods stay tariff free.
Caporegime
I'm not a politician, I don't have answers to everything, but leaving the EU would seriously reduce immigration in general, so that's why I'm out.
Soldato
No we are net importers with the EU by £89bn. We are the largest market by far for the EU.
Soldato
All this talk of the UK being able to strong arm these negotiations when it comes to immigration and trade...
So are we all confident that our politicians will be able to secure all of the ideal agreements without compromise AND do it all within two years?
Even that is not for certain, it will likely just shift the proportion of where the migrants come from than actually heavily reduce it and thats IF we take a pretty extreme approach.
So are we all confident that our politicians will be able to secure all of the ideal agreements without compromise AND do it all within two years?
Even that is not for certain, it will likely just shift the proportion of where the migrants come from than actually heavily reduce it and thats IF we take a pretty extreme approach.
Soldato
You're still ignoring the fact we export 44.6% of our stuff to the EU. Sure, we're important to them because they export 21% of their stuff to us (I'm using your figure and assuming it's right... maybe a mistake)... no one's pretending that we're not an important export market for the EU, but I'd argue we need them more than they need us.
That is the reason why a trade agreement is mutually beneficial however the UK has the upper hand with this due to a large trade deficit with the EU. Business will put pressure on the EU to ensure trade is free of tariffs.
They won't do it in 2 years but they will get quite a bit done in that time. The rest will just get an extension like Greenland did when they pulled out back in the 80s.
Soldato
Don't use Dan Hannan's "statistics" - they've been debunked many times already. Do your own research.
Soldato
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is the source of this. Regardless the HM revenue and customs also shows huge trade deficit with Europe. The numbers align with 21% without adding them all up.
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Soldato
Businesses wont be all that bothered about the tariffs. Large foreign companies that use the UK as a gateway will just move to Ireland or if Scotland manages to get away then they will move there eventually.
Massive threat when we think about the Anti EU mentality that has grown in France and Germany. The Euro members could face some massive economical issues if there was a rush to leave from the main superpowers and letting the Britain go with little complaint will only help other anti-EU campaigns in other countries gain more momentum. Even if it was in the UKs best interest to leave if these negotiations were easy, it is in everyone else's best interest to make leaving as difficult as possible (regardless of if the remaining countries want out or not). Therefore, i dont see any of these negotiations going smoothly.
EU outer mentality is that the EU has always blocked Britain. That it is inefficient and impossible to get any decent co-operation for things in Britain interest but for some reason get a confidence boost when talking about leaving negotiations, despite that actually being against the interest of remaining members. - That is some optimism.
Massive threat when we think about the Anti EU mentality that has grown in France and Germany. The Euro members could face some massive economical issues if there was a rush to leave from the main superpowers and letting the Britain go with little complaint will only help other anti-EU campaigns in other countries gain more momentum. Even if it was in the UKs best interest to leave if these negotiations were easy, it is in everyone else's best interest to make leaving as difficult as possible (regardless of if the remaining countries want out or not). Therefore, i dont see any of these negotiations going smoothly.
EU outer mentality is that the EU has always blocked Britain. That it is inefficient and impossible to get any decent co-operation for things in Britain interest but for some reason get a confidence boost when talking about leaving negotiations, despite that actually being against the interest of remaining members. - That is some optimism.
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Soldato
That is incorrect. It is not possible to quantify how much trade would be lost by addition of tariffs. Tariffs does not equal zero trade and a fall in the value of the pound will probably negate this if tariffs occurred. However it is strongly in the interest of the EU and UK that they will come to an agreement. It is a given they will. Ceasing to trade is a reckless and scenario so unlikely I suspect being wiped out by an asteroid tomorrow is more likely.
Soldato
I wasn't saying what impact tariffs would have, or that magically trade would stop. I was point out the relative importance of the trading relationship in a way other than looking at the deficit.
Absolutely it is very important for the UK and EU that an agreement is made. These agreements exist across the world already and the government are more than capable of arranging one.
Associate
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx
And you're being selective with your figures. I'll help you by posting the one you're avoiding mentioning
I think looking at the cash value of imports and exports is less important than the proportion, given the big difference between the size of the UK economy and the collective rEU economy. Is that unfair? Why?
Furthermore, you basically claim that trade will continue as now just because it's sensible financially... but the finances are one consideration. Eg. why would the EU give the UK all the benefits of the EU without any of the obligations? Eg. a contribution to its budget/accepting free movement of people/etc? If they did, what would stop other countries following the UK out of the door? Why would France and Germany want to stay in the EU if they could 'do a UK' and leave whilst retaining all the benefits?
What is the split on exports (and imports) on goods and "services". I was under the impression our biggest exports was in financial services. Not sure what "services" we import from the EU but I'm sure they'll have no problem finding other places for their finance when and if we brexit.
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