Something to mooch over re free trade deals. You will have seen the higher cost estimate in the press from Darling.
http://londonfirst.co.uk/wp-content...-the-EU-impact-on-trade-summary-findings1.pdf
You may have to submit a FOI for the report from Frontier Economics proper, which utilises OECD data.
Minutes from BoE's MPC from around the same date; an intresting read also:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2016/apr.pdf.
Following up the cut and thrust from April onwards, I've been trying to piece together this mysterious Canada deal offer myself from the Brexit interventions.
In summary:
- BoJo rubishes big losses, but is coming round to the idea that it might take 4-5 years to agree; he avoids stating any durations explicitly on record however -- too negative
- BoJo and Gove know this depends on an extension of the 2-year negotiating process being approved by the EU27 (unanimously)
- They've been more forthcoming about the fact that non-trade matters may be the complicating factor in the talks; insist to trust them this won't be a big problem
- Brexiters still talk of such a deal removing most (up to 90%) of all tariffs on goods & services when fully on-line; mum on the non-tariff barriers, part of this due to amplifying the immigration rhetoric
- Neither the research above nor reponse to it talks a lot about the future liberalisation of EU's services market, and whether further talks will be required later, after such reforms take place with us already out
- As such, the BoJo gambit revolves around: the EU free trade deal, similar deal for the US re services, then Asia (15-20 years in all?)
- His core assumption, and the research's he offered in Feb via the Telegraph, relies on Asian growth not halting, Europe stagnating and service market reforms in the EU stalling for said period of time
- The plan thus is to compensate for short-term losses of Brexit and reduced trade with the EU via the US, and outpefrom current growth predictions for the UK/EU in the long-term by competing effectively in Asia
- Obama's intervention obviously put a big dampener on the first plank of this exit strategy
Further updates on the exit process from the Lords Select Committee:
http://www.parliament.uk/hleu.
The PDF directly:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf.
Who says? Sure not the EEC as it was, but there is nothing to say we can't re-create the conditions of it for the UK.
Not unless you can somehow take out the EU and have enough clout to reform a sort of EEC from the members willing to still join your new club after that, or have some grand way of bringing about the gradual decolonisation circumstances surrounding Britain around the time it joined the EEC, with the same potential for growth later, reinstating special treatment for the UK in the Commonwealth arrangement (how many Commonwealth partners would be up for that?). Unless, of course, you just mean us signing multiple bi-lateral deals, and thinking we're in the EEC, is essentially the same.
This is an oldie but a goodie on the topic, particularly the historic background bit:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/10/the-commonwealth-and-the-eu-lets-do-trade-with-both/.
If you mean migration on its own, pulling out and putting up a points based system doesn't actually address most of the driving factors of economic migration into the UK, or indeed other countries with a PBS system, such as high unemployment rate in Spain, for example.
But let's be fair and compare:
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc123/index.html.
https://www.border.gov.au/about/rep...-in-australia/historical-migration-statistics
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-x/2012000/ct003-eng.htm
You can find Canada and Australia's here also:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM.
Our own points based visa system for non-EU immigration, with May's interventions, still allows for high immigration if there's demand for it.
How can you recreate EEC conditions, with higher emigration rates from the UK and a low net number (the shibboleth of GD-out-out-out) that were prevalent around the era? Flesh it out for those concerned about immigration and an EEC-like past.
