Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

[estebanrey]

The roots of the EU go back a lot further than 1993 and there hasn't been a war in the Balkans since former Yugoslav states started joining the EU.

(Also, it might be a joke)

It's a joke but jokes are only funny when they are based on the truth.

The EU (the one we are voting on) started in 1993, the EEC, league of nations etc etc that preceded it are not the problem.

 

[StriderX]

Unfortunately for the Remain campaign, it has to justify the value of supporting another currency (at some level), with regards to Greece, Spain, Portugal and to a lesser degree Italy. Then there is obviously the migrant issue, which has only evolved into a Turkey membership issue, which is a thorny complicated mess to dumb down to people, so i think they wont bother really (easy arguments from Leave).

Then we have the fact that China has more chance to cause economy uncertainty than the UK exit will, which is justified by the last few months of volatility and the rapid de-employment of Workers in Chinese industry as it moves to a competitive stance with services.

 

[estebanrey]

Polls are at 50:50 now. Interesting.

Does anyone else cynically think that if Remain win with 51/49 that'll be that but if Leave win 51/49 we'll stay in on the basis that 1% isn't a "biggest mandate to make such a big change to the country....blah blah blah blah"

 

[thep02]

Durrr yeah sure mr yank I'll sign the secret legally binding treaty that I'm not allowed to read beforehand, **** off.

 

[Mr Jack]

Polls are at 50:50 now. Interesting. It seems that the Obama effect only gave the remain camp a temporary boost.

I think more likely: there was no Obama effect and we're just seeming the normal random variation in polls which people are cheerfully over-interpreting by linking to the event of the week.

 

[Mr Jack]

Does anyone seriously believe the formation of the EU has anything to do with rarity of war in Europe in the last 30 years?

Yes. The EU was specifically created for that purpose. The aim was to build co-operation rather than competition between European countries and deep ties that wouldn't easily give way to war. It has done those things.

Now, I wouldn't want to overstate the case: the EU is just one factor among many but that doesn't mean it hasn't had an impact.

Why wasn't there a war between 1945-1993, 48 years of peace with no EU.

The EU might have been renamed in 1993 but it was around a lot longer than that.

 

[Mr Jack]

That is your prerogative, I on the other hand will take the opposite view as it is government run and therefore I dispute that those figures can be trusted. After all they never lie and always do what they say they are going to do.......

The ONS is not government run; it is state funded. These are not the same thing. It was set up as an arms length organisation so that it could be independent of government and relied about to produce neutral statistics, this contrasts it with the Treasury which works directly for the government. Organisations such as the OBR sit in the middle since they're supposedly neutral but Osborne stacked their board with people he knew supported his views.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

Polls are at 50:50 now. Interesting. It seems that the Obama effect only gave the remain camp a temporary boost.

Source: http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Are these the same polls that had Labour ahead on the day of the last GE?

 

[estebanrey]

The EU might have been renamed in 1993 but it was around a lot longer than that.

But we are voting on the EU, as created in 1993 and not the EEC or the EMI. In fact that is one of the drivers to getting this referendum (i.e. "I voted for economic club not joining a superstate").

Also it is wrong to say the EE was created to prevent war in Europe. The EMI was created because it was feared extreme nationalism led to war so they wanted to promote integration. Since the late 50s though and the introduction of the EEC it's been about business and trade, nowt to do with preventing war. Hence why it was called the European Economic Area and not the European Non-war Area

 

[Tunney]

But we are voting on the EU, as created in 1993 and not the EEC or the College of Europe. In fact that is one of the drivers to getting this referendum (i.e. "I voted for economic club not joining a superstate").

But we don't get the EEC back if we vote out, so that's a fairly moot point.

 

[estebanrey]

But we don't get the EEC back if we vote out, so that's a fairly moot point.

Who says? Sure not the EEC as it was, but there is nothing to say we can't re-create the conditions of it for the UK.

 

[Mr Jack]

Who says? Sure not the EEC as it was, but there is nothing to say we can't re-create the conditions of it for the UK.

There is little to no chance of it happening. Various countries and officials of the EU have made very clear that there will be no free trade access without free movement. This is a deeply fundamental position of the EU.

 

[thep02]

The Greenpeace leak of 248 official pages of the agreement will either kill ttip and anything like it or prove the eu is just part of the us imperium.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ttip-leaks-shocking-what-are-they-eu-us-deal-a7010121.html

 

[estebanrey]

There is little to no chance of it happening. Various countries and officials of the EU have made very clear that there will be no free trade access without free movement. This is a deeply fundamental position of the EU.

Ignoring the fact they have already agreed free trade agreements with other states and in the process of more, I never mentioned free-movement which is a tiny, tiny part of EU membership.

Why can't we have an EEC with free movement for the UK?

 

[Metallifux]

The ONS is not government run; it is state funded. These are not the same thing. It was set up as an arms length organisation so that it could be independent of government and relied about to produce neutral statistics, this contrasts it with the Treasury which works directly for the government. Organisations such as the OBR sit in the middle since they're supposedly neutral but Osborne stacked their board with people he knew supported his views.

Is that the same as the BBC isn't government run, it is state funded?

http://evolvepolitics.com/twitter-erupts-bbc-struggle-keep-tory-election-fraud-wraps-may-elections/

 

[datalol-jack]

Something to mooch over re free trade deals. You will have seen the higher cost estimate in the press from Darling.

http://londonfirst.co.uk/wp-content...-the-EU-impact-on-trade-summary-findings1.pdf

You may have to submit a FOI for the report from Frontier Economics proper, which utilises OECD data.

Minutes from BoE's MPC from around the same date; an intresting read also: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2016/apr.pdf.

Following up the cut and thrust from April onwards, I've been trying to piece together this mysterious Canada deal offer myself from the Brexit interventions.

In summary:

• BoJo rubishes big losses, but is coming round to the idea that it might take 4-5 years to agree; he avoids stating any durations explicitly on record however -- too negative
• BoJo and Gove know this depends on an extension of the 2-year negotiating process being approved by the EU27 (unanimously)
• They've been more forthcoming about the fact that non-trade matters may be the complicating factor in the talks; insist to trust them this won't be a big problem
• Brexiters still talk of such a deal removing most (up to 90%) of all tariffs on goods & services when fully on-line; mum on the non-tariff barriers, part of this due to amplifying the immigration rhetoric
• Neither the research above nor reponse to it talks a lot about the future liberalisation of EU's services market, and whether further talks will be required later, after such reforms take place with us already out
• As such, the BoJo gambit revolves around: the EU free trade deal, similar deal for the US re services, then Asia (15-20 years in all?)
• His core assumption, and the research's he offered in Feb via the Telegraph, relies on Asian growth not halting, Europe stagnating and service market reforms in the EU stalling for said period of time
• The plan thus is to compensate for short-term losses of Brexit and reduced trade with the EU via the US, and outpefrom current growth predictions for the UK/EU in the long-term by competing effectively in Asia
• Obama's intervention obviously put a big dampener on the first plank of this exit strategy

Further updates on the exit process from the Lords Select Committee:http://www.parliament.uk/hleu.
The PDF directly: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf.

Who says? Sure not the EEC as it was, but there is nothing to say we can't re-create the conditions of it for the UK.

Not unless you can somehow take out the EU and have enough clout to reform a sort of EEC from the members willing to still join your new club after that, or have some grand way of bringing about the gradual decolonisation circumstances surrounding Britain around the time it joined the EEC, with the same potential for growth later, reinstating special treatment for the UK in the Commonwealth arrangement (how many Commonwealth partners would be up for that?). Unless, of course, you just mean us signing multiple bi-lateral deals, and thinking we're in the EEC, is essentially the same.

This is an oldie but a goodie on the topic, particularly the historic background bit: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/10/the-commonwealth-and-the-eu-lets-do-trade-with-both/.

If you mean migration on its own, pulling out and putting up a points based system doesn't actually address most of the driving factors of economic migration into the UK, or indeed other countries with a PBS system, such as high unemployment rate in Spain, for example.

But let's be fair and compare:
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc123/index.html.
https://www.border.gov.au/about/rep...-in-australia/historical-migration-statistics
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-x/2012000/ct003-eng.htm
You can find Canada and Australia's here also: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM.

Our own points based visa system for non-EU immigration, with May's interventions, still allows for high immigration if there's demand for it.

How can you recreate EEC conditions, with higher emigration rates from the UK and a low net number (the shibboleth of GD-out-out-out) that were prevalent around the era? Flesh it out for those concerned about immigration and an EEC-like past.

 

[FishFluff]

I never mentioned free-movement which is a tiny, tiny part of EU membership.

Seriously? The thing that Brexiters cite the most as a reason for voting 'out'?

 

[estebanrey]

Seriously? The thing that Brexiters cite the most as a reason for voting 'out'?

Do they, or that just an easier straw man to knock down?

Please don't confuse opinion pieces and readership polls from the Express and Daily Mail with Euroscepticism in general.

P.S. If it was the Express poll you were referring to actually 'freedom of movement' wasn't the most cited reason, immigration was....

 

[Mulder]

FT.com - Germany to push for progress towards European army

A "dangerous fantasy" according to some in the remain camp....

 

[datalol-jack]

Well, on the political side of the EU criticism as an organisation, can we have a list, for reference, of the top 5-10 EU directives Brexit people oppose, and want gone?