The EU Referendum: Polling Day

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Soldato
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Can someone enlighten me? I keep seeing the chance of brexit odds down to as low as 15%, yet bookies have been saying they are taking more bets on leave, but bigger bets on remain. How is then that the odds are so low for a leave win? Not a betting man, so a bit confused by this!

Arent the odds based on their potential loss?
 
Soldato
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I think you'll find it is 14 ;)

Depends on how many posts per page you have set.

Major power cut here polling station will be all dark! Luckily no electronic voting system, just pencil and paper.

There was REMAIN lady at the front entrance, not sure why, she can't do anything, I've only seen 1 Exit sign in our village, but we are a bit in the sticks here and like our cheap French wines :)
Andi.
 
Soldato
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Can someone enlighten me? I keep seeing the chance of brexit odds down to as low as 15%, yet bookies have been saying they are taking more bets on leave, but bigger bets on remain. How is then that the odds are so low for a leave win? Not a betting man, so a bit confused by this!

Odds are like any market, fueled by speculation. They start off as an fairly accurate estimate but after that are determined almost absolutely by the bets being made. If loads of people bet big on remain the odds will shorten regardless of whether those people have some kind of inside knowledge or are just big gamblers betting on an ill-founded hunch.

Bookmakers aren't pollsters, they don't care about accuracy, they care about what odds gives them the highest chance of a profit.
 
Soldato
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Went this morning and had a slight moment when I thought I'd crossed the wrong box! :D There was a steady trickle of people going through, which is a damn sight more than I normally see when going to vote.

I live out in the 'shires, so there's rather more of a Leave vibe in my opinion. However, while out on delivery I've seen more remain posters in windows over the last couple of days, though always belonging to what you might call middle class, professional types.
 
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God I hate brexiters

Constantly seeing all over my facebook "voted but wont make a difference it will be fixed". When I question "if leave win will it be fixed then"
"no"

I mean come on. I voted stay but if leave win then that's that. I wont be blaming the result on crosses being rubbed out or ballots ripped apart.
 
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