Caporegime
- Joined
- 11 Mar 2005
- Posts
- 32,247
- Location
- Leafy Cheshire
And he would be right, it wasn't luck he managed the risk.
I am saying luck has played a part in him not having been caught to date. But he won't believe that, it's all down to him being a genius.[TW]Fox;15326278 said:His point is not that he won't get caught but that he says if he does get caught it wasn't luck.
You've got it the wrong way round. Driving regularly, speeding regularly, never getting caught, is like winning the lottery. The chances of never getting caught are low. Speed regularly, you will get caught one day. Yes even you. Regardless of how careful you think you are. Every time you speed, the odds on you being caught get shorter.
Luck is not part of it
Where gambling and odds are concerned, luck is always a factor in beating odds. You cannot have gambling, odds and not have luck somewhere in the equation. You speed, you gamble on not being caught. I suspect we agree on this whole issue except to the point of luck, where you deny it plays ANY part WHATSOEVER which I'm afraid is not correct.
You said that to not get caught speeding you have to be lucky, I disagreed, you can mitigiate the risks to the point where you have to be really unlucky to get caught, and you can further extend that to where you are highly unlikely to get caught even through the unlucky factor, at which point luck does not play a meaningful part in any calculation. Furthermore, to say that luck defines life is to abdicate responsibilities for your choices.
To not get caught EVER involves SOME luck.
Is it luck that I don't step out of my front door and get hit by a toilet seat from a space station?