The next Conservative Leader thread.

Mr Badger · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:15

Billies Bangers said:
There was an interesting take on this mentioned on the Daily Politics Show today. In essence when we finally hammer out a deal with the EU on what Brexit will actually mean for Britain, there could be another referendum put to the electorate to decide if we want to go ahead with the negotiated terms or might we want to think again.

Careful now - in my experience Leave voters generally wail and gnash their teeth when something like this is suggested as they want Article 50 enacted now regardless. However, try asking them why they voted Leave and what they will accept as the terms of Brexit? I've yet to meet one that seems to have thought this through to a logical conclusion. Unless of course our hatred of the EU is so great that we don't care what deal we get. :rolleyes:

Mr Jack · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:22

Mr Badger said:
Careful now - in my experience Leave voters generally wail and gnash their teeth when something like this is suggested as they want Article 50 enacted now regardless. However, try asking them why they voted Leave and what they will accept as the terms of Brexit? I've yet to meet one that seems to have thought this through to a logical conclusion. Unless of course our hatred of the EU is so great that we don't care what deal we get.

If we're going to trigger article 50, we should do it as soon as possible, anything else prolongs the uncertainty and damage to the economy. We can't know how negotiations will go until we start them; let's get on with it.

Caged · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:24

nkata said:
I am quite looking forward to Theresa May as PM. I believe that she would be a courageous leader for the UK. Certainly she is the best of the current crop.

The lowest of low bars.

stewski · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:25

Mr Jack said:
If we're going to trigger article 50, we should do it as soon as possible, anything else prolongs the uncertainty and damage to the economy. We can't know how negotiations will go until we start them; let's get on with it.

I disagree, in that it should have to run through Parliament with all the ramifications that such currently involves.

Mr Badger · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:26

1. Trigger Article 50
2. Get a deal that doesn't satisfy anyone (regardless of how they voted in the referendum) but go ahead with it anyway
3. Profit?

Caged · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:29

If we take a deal that involves free movement and single market membership then that just means Farage will pop back up again and start mouthing off about sovereignty.

So any deal also needs to come with a secret behind-closed-doors agreement with representatives across the media industry to all have collective amnesia about who Farage even is, let alone reporting anything he has to say.

Hagar · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:31

Caged said:
The lowest of low bars.

of course i include all 600 plus members.

Mr Jack · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:36

stewski said:
I disagree, in that it should have to run through Parliament with all the ramifications that such currently involves.

I wasn't ruling "through parliament" out when I said "as soon as possible".

Mr Jack · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:45

Mr Badger said:
1. Trigger Article 50
2. Get a deal that doesn't satisfy anyone (regardless of how they voted in the referendum) but go ahead with it anyway
3. Profit?

What's the alternative here? We, whatever you may think of Cameron's decision, had a referendum which was sold to the British people as we will leave the EU or remain in the EU, and we - in our great and collective wisdom - decided to leave.

We can argue about how dumb that was but it doesn't make much difference, we had that vote. How can we not respect that vote without doing permanent and lasting damage to public perceptions of democracy?

Unless there is material change of circumstances, I don't see how we can do otherwise than leave the EU.

FoxEye · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:46

So what happens if parliament votes not to leave the EU? Does the Tory party split? Does UKIP become a more serious contender?

Seems like a lose/lose situation for lots of people now, not just the next PM.

Caged · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:49

I'm with Jack, as much as a poor option it might be there is really no alternative other than holding your nose and invoking art. 50. Cameron messed up massively but you can't walk this back now.

Greebo · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:57

Mr Jack said:
What's the alternative here? We, whatever you may think of Cameron's decision, had a referendum which was sold to the British people as we will leave the EU or remain in the EU, and we - in our great and collective wisdom - decided to leave.

We can argue about how dumb that was but it doesn't make much difference, we had that vote. How can we not respect that vote without doing permanent and lasting damage to public perceptions of democracy?

Unless there is material change of circumstances, I don't see how we can do otherwise than leave the EU.

I think mr badger meant leave the eu and end up joining the EEA . Fulfills the referendum but probably not most leave voters as we will have freedom of movement and most of the eu rules.

Mr Jack · 10 Jul 2016 at 23:58

FoxEye said:
So what happens if parliament votes not to leave the EU? Does the Tory party split? Does UKIP become a more serious contender?

It's impossible to say beyond that it would be the biggest constitutional, and democratic, crisis of our lifetimes.

How the politicians and people react to that, I don't know.

A lot depends on the circumstance, a vote now lost by Brexit MPs would be an absolute disaster. A vote in a years time after a disastrous year for the economy and all the polls showing a big swing away from Leave would be another matter. In the latter case, I think it would grow an ugly nub of the deeply disaffected and who knows which way their anger would flow, but mainstream politics might hold with a refusal to go down the article 50 route. It's very hard to say.

Caged · 11 Jul 2016 at 00:00

We just need to gather all the people that would have a violent reaction to ignoring the referendum, put them in Norfolk and then cast the county adrift as a new independent non-EU nation.

Pudney · 11 Jul 2016 at 00:06

Billies Bangers said:
Which pensions are you referring to - your post simply says 'those'?

The ones you talked about in the post of yours I had quoted :confused:

Mr Jack · 11 Jul 2016 at 00:09

Just watching IDS on the Preston on Sunday repeat. I'm "impressed" at how he's managing to spin repeating the exact words that Leadsom actually said as smears. Extraordinary.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 09:04

lol

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/im-not-nasty-im-just-****-at-this-insists-leadsom-20160711110548

*link contains swearies*

Mr Jack · 11 Jul 2016 at 09:22

And now she's saying she feels hurt and stressed by all that's going on in the media. How does she hope to cope with being Prime Minister if this is too much for her?

Greebo · 11 Jul 2016 at 10:16

Mr Jack said:
And now she's saying she feels hurt and stressed by all that's going on in the media. How does she hope to cope with being Prime Minister if this is too much for her?

Yeah I saw all that on breakfast TV where she and her colleagues are saying she is at the end of her tether and is under so much pressure, etc

I think admitting that is a bigger blow to her campaign than just been nasty to May. Nobody wants to see a future leader of the country struggle only a few days into her leadership campaign.

What's she going to do when the real hard work starts with Brexit? Say, sorry, I can't take the pressure, i'm off for a lie down?

FortuitousFluke · 11 Jul 2016 at 10:40

Terminal_Boy said:
I think a bit of passive, non-violent civil disobedience may well be on the cards if Westminster decides to ignore the EU Ref result.

I'll grab the ol' lootin' sack and meet you in Tottenham. Daddy needs a new pair of Nike's.

*Theresa, if you're reading this, please don't have me hogtied and placed on a lorry bound for Romania. I'm not really a criminal and I'm reliably informed that the process for returning to the Country is soon to become much more tedious.