What the heck? Reading that, I felt like I'd entered a reality distortion field where the iPad was considered a commercial failure rather than a great success! 40 million is really quite a lot, considering that the iPad has been around less than two years, and reinvigorated a dead market.
In terms of what Windows 8 will do in this market, the iPad is a minor player at the least or a failure at worst. Microsoft is looking for around 50mil units in the first year alone, and that's just tablet PCs not W8 desktops. And over 3 years they're looking for the tablet form factor to account for a quarter of their W8 licenses. And remember that W7 has sold 450mil licenses and counting. Microsoft is also betting that many people will own both a W8 desktop PC *and* a W8 tablet device. So shifting two licenses per user, in some cases. As W8 tablets gain momentum (and applications) this effect will of course cool off, as more and more casual computer users trade in their laptop for a W8 tablet PC instead.
1) The iPad is priced competitively. Which competitor has been able to deliver a tablet at an equivalent price to the iPad, with parity in terms of design, feature set and ease of use? None.
The point I was making (if it wasn't clear enough) is that the iPad will be considered woefully uncompetitive as soon as the Windows 8's WOA tablets hit the market.
2) The iPad has 80%+ of the tablet market. A large majority of the tablet demographic doesn't give a hoot that the iPad isn't a fully-featured PC. Surely the flaw in your theory is that there are plenty of fully-featured tablet PCs around, and every single one is a miserable commercial failure compared to the iPad.
You're falling into the Apple-designated trap of defining a tablet PC in the same bracket as the iPad. This is incorrect. The iPad is a tablet device or tablet prototype, but not a tablet PC. A tablet PC is the real McCoy. And no I'm not referring to the Windows Explorer desktop here, not at all.
The main complaint everyone had on the iPad launch day was that it was nothing more than a large iPhone. I still hear people today make similar comments. It is definitely a big issue for people. They find it hard to justify spending 500 quid on something that is essentially an iPhone with a bigger screen.
The tablet has been accepted as a "post-PC" device and as a commodity. Very few people want a tablet which is as fully-featured as a traditional PC. That has already been tried without success. The market is littered with failed Windows tablets.
Even Microsoft realises this now - hence why the Metro UI is going front and centre on Windows 8. The point of Metro is that it'll make a Windows tablet feel more like an 'appliance' and less like a PC with a traditional operating system. The fact that on ARM devices,
third-party apps will only be available on Metro, not the traditional desktop is a pretty clear indicator that Microsoft sees W8 tablets as having interaction paradigms a lot more like an iPad than a 'feature complete tablet PC'.
The Windows 8 tablets which will compete with the iPad won't be tablet PCs. They'll just be tablets. Even a company as traditionally conservative as Microsoft can see that the writing is on the wall for the 'tablet PC'.
They absolutely will be tablet PCs.
And people absolutely do want them. The Windows brand is very very strong.
Metro is simply a touch-first next generation Explorer shell. Having that instead of the traditional Explorer does not preclude it from being a tablet PC. Windows is heading in a new direction. Hundreds of thousands of applications will be redesigned with a Metro user interface. Even Office will, one day, become a set of Metro applications.
Being a tablet PC in terms of definition is about having a capability and set of underlying functionality that is several orders of magnitude greater than just a tablet device (ala iPad, Android etc). Windows 8 will have development tools, SDKs, frameworks that rival platforms can only dream of. DirectX will mean that next generation games will be designed with "touch and sense" play in mind. I'm not talking about crappy little Angry Birds games either. I'm talking about proper blockbuster games built on engines from the likes of id games, Epic Games, etc. I'm also talking about "simple" things that users want to do from even their iPad today: things like being able to scan documents, print documents, modify documents. These all sound simple to solve for the iPad but they're really not:
- it has no USB connectivity
- it has no driver models for printers or scanners or digital cameras
- its touch-first GUI, whilst revolutionary at the time, is now out of date and doesn't scale well to document editing.
- it has no filesystem, storing user-edited documents is simply not possible at the moment.
These are big architectural issues that reflect greatly on iOS. And this is why, as I have been saying, iOS has a limited shelf life. At some point Apple will need to either add support for all those things above to it, or, more realistically, bring OSX (together with a iOS-like touch-first GUI, of course) to the iPad.
There are a lot of doom-sayers about Windows 8 on tablets. But the fact is that these people (or research organisations) do not yet realise the full potential of the tablet form factor. They think that what we see today is the full extent of the market. They are thinking "inside the box" that the Apple iPad represents. Which is a small box. Windows 8 on tablets presents a far larger capability. Businesses for example will be rewriting their line-of-business applications to be Metro apps. In offices all over the world, people will carry their tablet device wherever they go. Just like the scientist guy remarking "wow that's a lovely brain!" whilst looking at his tablet PC in the Avatar movie. It was Avatar's "Minority Report" moment.
Mobile working is here to stay and it is still in its primordial stage! Windows 8 will unleash mobile working. Large full scale business applications will be developed upon Metro.