Thunderstorms - 2017

Neil79 · 30 May 2017 at 22:47

O M G!!

Neil79 · 1 Jun 2017 at 19:43

Friday

Occasionally sunny, and becoming locally very warm. Isolated heavy showers will develop, perhaps torrential with frequent lightning, then dying out during the evening. Mainly dry overnight. Light winds.

Neil79 · 2 Jun 2017 at 09:38

UPDATE 07:26

UTC Latest guidance continues to trend towards a reactivation of the frontal boundary this evening/overnight with showery outbreaks of rain developing over the Midlands into East Anglia - questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with this, but given some marginal elevated instability have extended the LOW threat westwards to cater for this potential. That aside, still some uncertainty as to how things will evolve this afternoon with regards to surface-based thunderstorm potential over East Anglia / SE England - early initiation (11-14z) is still signalled by some NWP output.

Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

There is the potential for some elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and drift into SE England late Friday morning. Then, given enough insolation, combined with low-level convergence, a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating.

Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time.

There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas.

A few scattered heavy showers will also be possible Friday afternoon across parts of Scotland, perhaps weakly-electrified given strong shear but marginal instability - hence an eastwards extension of the LOW threat level. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

Lunatic Dreyfus · 2 Jun 2017 at 10:30

Rearranged delivery of my new GTX 1080 to coincide with my day off, I was worried it would be delivered too early on a work day. DPD text me this morning and inform me my delivery will turn up between 16:50 and 17:50.

Thanks guys. Thanks a lot.

Neil79 · 2 Jun 2017 at 10:41

Lunatic Dreyfus said:
Rearranged delivery of my new GTX 1080 to coincide with my day off, I was worried it would be delivered too early on a work day. DPD text me this morning and inform me my delivery will turn up between 16:50 and 17:50.

Thanks guys. Thanks a lot.

That sounds like a bad Thunderstorm

TonyTurbo78 · 2 Jun 2017 at 11:06

Neil79 said:
O M G!!

now thats a storm. Was speaking to my auntie who lives just outside of Estover, she was trying to explain how incredible it was over the phone, didn't realise it was this epic. Wow.

nst68 · 2 Jun 2017 at 16:03

nice storm over Chelmsford atm

robfosters · 2 Jun 2017 at 16:59

Woo hoo! Having an absolute cracker here atm!

Doogles · 2 Jun 2017 at 17:07

nst68 said:
nice storm over Chelmsford atm

Yeah just had a power cut

Rroff · 2 Jun 2017 at 17:10

Feels quite thundery here but nothing forecast AFAIK :s

bingham67 · 20 Jun 2017 at 16:14

Talks of super cells for the UK tomorrow lets hope so!!

Rroff · 20 Jun 2017 at 16:19

bingham67 said:
Talks of super cells for the UK tomorrow lets hope so!!

Looks like a moderate chance of thunderstorms for Midlands and Wales later on today and a bit higher chance for the South coast (morning) moving through the South to South East (evening) tomorrow.

fieldy · 21 Jun 2017 at 06:37

I wish we'd get some storm action in Surrey - hopefully by the end of the week

wolfie138 · 21 Jun 2017 at 11:58

lightning and torrential rain in Newcastle this morning :-)

Ayahuasca · 21 Jun 2017 at 12:13

Yeah North East here, never heard rolling thunder like that for as long as I can remember, lasting about 30 seconds.

albert · 21 Jun 2017 at 12:21

If you want to know what a proper Thunderstorm is like then watch this supercell we experienced in France a few years ago. After this video was filmed i did however learn to keep quiet as i sound like a right prat and go on and on in this video ......

The next day 1/2 the roof of our accommodation had disappeared. UK thunderstorms, pffft.

mattyprice4004 · 21 Jun 2017 at 16:37

I have a camping chair, coat and proper camera loaded in the boot ready...

Rroff · 21 Jun 2017 at 16:57

mattyprice4004 said:
I have a camping chair, coat and proper camera loaded in the boot ready...

Some moving across from Ireland to North Wales at the moment looks like its going to move from there across the country towards London but who knows.

Neil79 · 21 Jun 2017 at 17:41

No storms here

squerble · 21 Jun 2017 at 17:50

Rroff said:
Some moving across from Ireland to North Wales at the moment looks like its going to move from there across the country towards London but who knows.

Excellent news as I'm near Holywell at the moment. Getting some soft plops of rain against my caravan (gypo) but waiting for the full torrential downpour!