Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

mid_gen said:
You hitting the jackpot with those 3x longs! Super risky with this volatility. I actually hung onto the 3x short I had until it was nearly flat, but won't be doing that again, it was 60% down at one point :p I'd feel more confident on short positions than long right now still!

Think I'll keep building my Intel stake this month, dividend is pretty good. Think I'm done trading tbh just going back to boring accumulation mode, leaning towards decent dividends rather than growth.
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It's been the only good trades this year.

I have a mental difficulty shorting.
Im annoyed I didn't sell my Ezj and I'm annoyed I didn't short it. Because I remember thinking when they were talking initially about the cancellations.. I bet this hurts the price.

Didn't act on it.


With the tesla I wait until I think there's a bottom. Something I've always been OK at. But for some reason I'm better at selling these. I think because I have a 'in and out' mentality from the off. With my others I go in with 'long term hold'.

I'd say I'm. 80 percent good at buying.
20 percent good at selling!
 
How are people feeling about Tesla, there seems to be 2 camps, one that say its well over priced and will crash hard, and the other that are still buying it as they think its under valued.
 
Trig said:
How are people feeling about Tesla, there seems to be 2 camps, one that say its well over priced and will crash hard, and the other that are still buying it as they think its under valued.
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It's really future based.

If they genuinely are really superior to other car/battery manufacturers the price is fair.but they have to maintain this to command this price.
But the downward risk is other manufacturers undercut and produce an equivalent or superior product.

Is not just cars they make. Arguably is the home battery solutions that may be just as important for them


For me it's too future based for that value to hold.


I'd say there are better buys out there.
 
Trig said:
How are people feeling about Tesla, there seems to be 2 camps, one that say its well over priced and will crash hard, and the other that are still buying it as they think its under valued.
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I think they're overpriced, relative to other auto makers. They had a headstart in the EV space, but there's plenty of competition around now. Musk is a liability. It's a bell-weather for growth tech stocks, and will struggle to see positive growth for years.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nasdaq fall back to pre-covid levels, 8k ish....but it's fallen enough now that I'm happy DCA-ing back in.
 
413x said:
It won't need to get that high to cause mass devastation.

Already people are reigning in spending. Mainly due to energy.
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I could see the entire country seizing up if the base rate got that high. Even then I don’t see prices ever coming down again, they’ll stagnate at best.
 
413x said:
It's really future based.

If they genuinely are really superior to other car/battery manufacturers the price is fair.but they have to maintain this to command this price.
But the downward risk is other manufacturers undercut and produce an equivalent or superior product.

Is not just cars they make. Arguably is the home battery solutions that may be just as important for them


For me it's too future based for that value to hold.


I'd say there are better buys out there.
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I'm not sure how they can even remotely justify their valuation. Its utterly utterly ridiculous. Their market cap is greater than the next 10 biggest car makers despite selling a fraction of the number of cars. All these other companies are rapidly gaining on Tesla and making huge investments into electric cars.

Even with the valuation halving from its ATH its not necessarily undervalued at all right now IMO.
 
fez said:
I'm not sure how they can even remotely justify their valuation. Its utterly utterly ridiculous. Their market cap is greater than the next 10 biggest car makers despite selling a fraction of the number of cars. All these other companies are rapidly gaining on Tesla and making huge investments into electric cars.

Even with the valuation halving from its ATH its not necessarily undervalued at all right now IMO.
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That's what I mean. It needs to keep up It's advantage to maintain its value.

It's likely why it's fallen so much. Not just the broader sell-off. The competition.


If I was in the market for an eV I wouldn't be looking at a tesla. Too expensive and not enough of an advantage to be worth it for me.
I don't think it can keep up it's advantage
 
Tesla valuation has always seemed crazy to me, even before the 5:1 stock split it seemed to be crazy high PE. I am annoyed that I didn’t jump on the crazy train before stock split though but it seemed too much like a meme stock, even current price Tesla is over $3000 pre split. Compared to VW/Ford valuations it just doesn’t make sense.

Maybe the autonomous driving and touted robotic workers will justify valuation, but Musk seems like a flimflam merchant always peddling what’s coming. I don’t trust him.
 
dLockers said:
iTs NoT jUsT a CaR cOmPaNy :cry: :p
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Well this is it, look at them from a DATA POV, they have hundreds of thousands of cars driving around with cameras all over them, screw Google street view, these guys could take all that data and then pass it to the local councils so they can see the state of roads, hedges, black spots and so on, surely that's gotta be worth something beyond what the 'car company' side of things is worth..
 
413x said:
That's what I mean. It needs to keep up It's advantage to maintain its value.

It's likely why it's fallen so much. Not just the broader sell-off. The competition.
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The problem is that the only way it would ever even justify its current valuation is if everyone else stopped making EVs. Its not even that it was an accurate valuation when everyone else was sleeping on electric. As others have said, it became a meme stock. Its a bit like crypto where there is value there but far too much of its value is entirely dependent on FOMO and retail investors seeing easy money.

413x said:
If I was in the market for an eV I wouldn't be looking at a tesla. Too expensive and not enough of an advantage to be worth it for me.
I don't think it can keep up it's advantage
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I like some of what teslas do but yeah, there are far more practical and sensible versions which cost far less. The styling is getting a bit old now as well.
 
Dont look at TSLA look at what its competing against. Looking at that share graph is like looking at the sun lol I think it confuses mostly. Do we have a graph adjusted for the shares in issue at that time. FT used to show indexes and shares including dividends all sorts of useful stuff to reflect value

Tesla share price is justified if they produce a great advancement for millions of people. That is probably the easiest way to look at them, are they going to change the world for those with moderate incomes. I'd love a Tesla, seems a lot of clever design but more then likely I'd get a second hand Leaf if I was going that direction because its just a disposable product the utility vs price is what matters. a lot of EV will be 2nd cars, doesnt have to be perfect just cheap runabouts so who makes those best.

Economies of scale, Leaf has the greatest production numbers so its the product I can most easily acquire and I presume its easier for them to profit. Compare Tesla to Ford shares, they had an amazing run upto this year start and its now reset back to support basically, it appears a cheap performing share no idea if it is but they make electric engines, cars I guess so compare and contrast gives the best answer on Tesla prospects vs its price.

Musk will keep selling, he has to diversify holdings to match his control elsewhere; I think Branson had to sell and reorganise his capital to support his companies also. Volatility like 2020 will keep happening in share terms, I dont know the event headlines but the pricing I think we keep making waves in this decade.

On the basis if it can happen it will happen I'd like to say TSLA 400 to 500 back to a 50 month average like F is at. I dont know all the details or if its an accurate graph
 
As much as I'd like a Tesla, well because who doesn't like 'Ludicrous Speed', if I was to go down the EV route I'd be much more likely to go down the Aptera route, but if I wanted to spend Tesla money I'd get a Porsche...
 
Trig said:
As much as I'd like a Tesla, well because who doesn't like 'Ludicrous Speed', if I was to go down the EV route I'd be much more likely to go down the Aptera route, but if I wanted to spend Tesla money I'd get a Porsche...
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Assuming Model S/X then that is Porsche money but 3/Y are not.
 
delta0 said:
Assuming Model S/X then that is Porsche money but 3/Y are not.
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Oh yeah, I'm tlaking 80k plus proper performance Tesla, not the cheap everyman version lol..
But realistic EV purchase for me would be something like the Aptera, but the advantage I have is my commute to work is less than 4 miles, so an electric scooter would be more likely :D
 
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