Soldato
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Obviously not enough negativity for them to call recession
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Yeah, wait until a bit later in the year when energy price caps move, unless of course the govt. put measures in place to bring costs down enough to just hold off the recession while stagnating the country because nobody can afford to do anything other than work and pay the bills..
Will be picking up my last few today, ex div next week at least
Think this month's money will be sitting in cash for a bit, I suspect this over-exuberant couple of weeks will come to a screeching halt....
Soldato
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INTC is in a good place (to buy) on the graph in theory at least. Im not totally sure they turn it around or not, its a big company requires more then one look. I added some for the moment, I dont see it as a sell
I've been selling some into the rally generally, I think business, trades are more certain in the Autumn as to our final direction. The uncertainty of gas vs Europe etc.
I've been selling some into the rally generally, I think business, trades are more certain in the Autumn as to our final direction. The uncertainty of gas vs Europe etc.
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Soldato
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Intel has the biggest upside of any stock i can think off, but its a multi-year bet, firstly they will return back in proper competition with AMD due to new processes (created by ASML).
I.e. Intel vs TSMC, both buy machines from ASML. Its not a question of can intel compete with AMD, they can surely, as the machines are not made by TSMC or AMD, or Nvidia.
Secondly, they will then grow by selling foundry space to the fabless, i.e. AMD/Nvidia. So in like 5 years time, very likely intel will produce AMD processors.
TSMC is also cheap tbh, I don't know why anyone here buys shares in AMD but not in TSMC. That being said, i cannot even buy shares in TSMC via H&L, the only option is TSM 5 ADR shares, 80$ or so right now. But it is not allowable to purchase within a ISA account.
But valuation only depends on metrics currently, the above is completely excluded from all possible valuation calculations, right now they just have a tough time, though and are priced like they will perpetually decline into nothing.
What does proper competition mean though. Here it shows Intel still dominates server 88%, desktop 72% and mobile 77% sectors. There is less room to grow in terms of segment capture.
Intel Foundry Services seem to make up a tiny part of revenue so in their Q2 2022 report standing at just below 1% compared to desktop & laptop & other revenue at 53% or datacentres and AI at 26%.
Foundry has the potential to grow significantly (and if TSMC is any indication with its 46% operating margin) and does have decent potential compared to Intel's current Client Computed operating margin is 40%, datacentres at 36%, whereas foundry is at 5% operating profit margin for now.
If intel foundry will compete with other manufacturers maybe profit margins will start to go down (all this technical stuff is outside of my knowledge though).
This was 17th July remark made in a sea of pessimistic posts.
So far so good for the rise anyway (a nice family car amount)
I am extending my prediction even if the odds are stacked the other way , dosnst matter really with DC'a of index funds but just an interest and I also want to keep destroying the 40 percent lifestatagy fund I sold out off ,man I got to hate bonds
Even though I'm 57 and not working any more I've gone nowhere near bonds.
Yeah I was so unhappy that they pulled the same way as stocks ,down I was just following default advice but didn't look into their behaviour,I only have 1.5 percent cash in vanguard now ,would rather risk it **** or bust
I wouldnt bother buying Intel at the mo, they're about to drop a bit..
Pretty much but also vanguards advice for my age ,I think the days of bonds as an automatic save haven are gone tbh
Tracker funds are generally fine, they're often liked because they tend to have low fees and actively managed funds often don't perform well anyway and tend to have higher fees.
I guess you're kind of creating a mini endowment mortgage albeit for the bit of your mortgage you'd have otherwise theoretically overpaid... you're basically gambling/putting at risk the portion/years you might have otherwise reduced.
I don't see that it's too big a deal if you're happy to take that risk... you're still paying off your mortgage on the original schedule you just might have a nice little bit extra to pay off a bigger chunk if the markets perform well... and with your mortgage being just 2.39% they don't even need to perform particularly well over the next 10 years to beat it!
Companies don't want intels current node they want the next one so the revenue won't kick up until thats ready in 23/24 or whenever it was
Cheap for a reason China will one day take Taiwan
A good option, invest and forget. Most of the major indexes average return (over time) are in the 8-9%pa from memory.
Vanguard have particularly low fees.
Use trackers as the basis / 80% of your portfolio and dabble with ETF's or actively managed funds in sectors with greater risk/reward (renewables, global opps etc) for the remainder.
Soldato
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- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Satori sold INTC then now buys them back. Wish I was this smart 
I would rather think I can buy on the way up then stand on the deck of the Titanic with my water wings on saying Im sure it'll work out. Hard to be pragmatic.
next guy says dont touch it
Think of the compound if you want to consider if thats feasible, I know its possible but its rare. I remember one guy is famous for 20% gains over 20 years and the old Buffet gains, thats beyond epic quite abnormal and 9% is not happening in normal or average calculations.
Holding for ten years from 1990
CSCO $1000 > $1,000,000
MSFT $18,000 > $1,000,000
I would rather think I can buy on the way up then stand on the deck of the Titanic with my water wings on saying Im sure it'll work out. Hard to be pragmatic.next guy says dont touch it
Not above inflation it wont be. Average return for index would be like 3 to 5% if we are lucky. Should be able to find some long term data on this, cash, bonds, equity, gold etc.
Think of the compound if you want to consider if thats feasible, I know its possible but its rare. I remember one guy is famous for 20% gains over 20 years and the old Buffet gains, thats beyond epic quite abnormal and 9% is not happening in normal or average calculations.
Holding for ten years from 1990
CSCO $1000 > $1,000,000
MSFT $18,000 > $1,000,000
Soldato
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Competition as in growth, with competitive products, this will result in both, increasing revenues, and, multiple expansion. However when you add IFS, it means huge potential revenues, and a further increase in multiples.
So in terms of return i am looking for 10x or more, which is not a hyped amount.
AMD for example, 2015-now you return around 40x, and that is after the recent drop, Nvidia like 30x.
In terms of competition there are two competitors to intel, that is TSMC, and Samsung.
The downside is pretty minimal, and everyone should keep in mind that the chips act is only the begining, the US will control the supply of latest tech chips, and they will do so at ANY cost. TSMC is a technically chinese company, and Samsung is korean, only one US company in the running.
Anyway right now im at 5%, will be increasing slowly to around 10%, then we will see from there.
If they do you'll have returns from intel by then, IMO, buying both is foolproof. Quote this in 2027.
ii and iweb are cheaper once you get over about £80k.