Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Trusty said:
How have they overshot?.
Click to expand...
The inflation from supply issues is working through the economy and will naturally flatten in time. The rate hikes are just putting the brakes on the economy and stressing the financial system without actually solving the underlying problem that caused the inflation in the first place.

Food and energy prices aren't going up in the because there's too much money in the economy, they're going up because there's a shortage of food and energy supply, and even that is being masked by the huge government bungs being given to energy companies.

They'll hike rates too high, and when the inflation works through the YoY stats and falls, they'll pull the rates back, but the damage to the economy will have been done already, and well be dealing with that.
 
Last edited:
mid_gen said:
The inflation from supply issues is working through the economy and will naturally flatten in time. The rate hikes are just putting the brakes on the economy and stressing the financial system without actually solving the underlying problem that caused the inflation in the first place.

Food and energy prices aren't going up in the because there's too much money in the economy, they're going up because there's a shortage of food and energy supply.

They'll hike rates too high, and when the inflation works through the YoY stats and falls, they'll pull the rates back, but the damage to the economy will have been done already, and well be dealing with that.
Click to expand...

Supply chains issues aren't a problem, the GSCP index is back to where it was in 2019. It's wage growth, it's extremely sticky. If you listen to Powell's FOMC meetings, he tells the market subtly what indicators he's looking at and that's the main one at the moment, rather than the normal inflation indicators. Gamestop was up over 40% today, prime example of the excess bubbliness that needs to be let out.
Powell reiterated the strength of financial system. SVB isn't a good example of the overall pictue, they mismanaged the risk with duration on their books. But for once, the taxpayers aren't bailing them out, which is nice.
If Powell manages to navigate all this without blowing the fundamentals of the economy up, he might be up there with Volker. Tightening into a slowdown in growth is a dangerous game, but it's the lesser of two evils, recession or spiralling inflation. Strong employments do suggest Powell has got that wiggle room though.

Not to say that i'll be the same picture in 6 months, things could change in that time.
 
Last edited:
200sols said:
Do mobile operators not have networks to maintain, staff to pay, consumables to buy?
Click to expand...

Staff costs are not a supply issue, it's just that wages have to increase because of banker's inflating the money supply.

In terms of consumables, I don't think the impact of an increase in the price of consumables through any supply issues would affect the network that much, as most of the network has been built already, so its just maintenance, but this is a relatively small increase compared to how much they've put the prices up.

Energy prices may have some impact, but small relative to the price increase they have done. Energy prices are correcting somewhat anyway.

The price increase is necessary to maintain profitability when the real value of the currency itself has been devalued through continued supply increase.

Supply issues (of raw materials and energy) are just being used as an excuse for all consumer goods and services going up in price, when the real cause of this is an increase in the supply of money itself.
 
Last edited:
Deutsche Bank credit swaps now predicting 31% chance of default. They have had issues for a long time now but with the market being more nervous at the moment this is a big risk.
 
radderfire said:
House of cards ready to fall.
Click to expand...

Lol..yeah. It's a constant theme yet it keeps grinding on. As has been pointed out about DB, European sector is in worse far shape. If we get an 08 type credit crunch event, it'll come from there rather than the US.
But generally speaking the banks are nowhere near leveraged to the hilt like 08. And Basel II & III has worked pretty effectively at keeping a certain amount of highly liquid quality assets on the books.
If the start of the year is anything to go by, these 0TDE instruments seem pretty effective at letting the air out of the bubble. Controlled versus chaotic makes a big difference.
 
Last edited:
dOodqOA.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom