Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[silversurfer]

This seems cheap if its a company able to continue

Price gained little in the last year, if it holds 800p area as support it could be positive. Probably parallel to oil etc.

 

[Martynt74]

It got mentioned on here by Sonny around the 300p mark and I made a little on it but got out around 500p thinking I’d done well and it just went up and up.
Think it hit around 1400 at one point.

I do wonder about selling BP. Curious to see long term prospects given oil falling and less investment into renewables.

 

[mid_gen]

I can see why coal stocks could have made a nice return short term during the energy crisis.....but long term? Every sane government is pushing renewables as for the majority of countries it's the only way to energy independence.

 

[Deleted User 298457]

It got mentioned on here by Sonny around the 300p mark and I made a little on it but got out around 500p thinking I’d done well and it just went up and up.
Think it hit around 1400 at one point.

I do wonder about selling BP. Curious to see long term prospects given oil falling and less investment into renewables.

Same. In days of "lol due diligence" it was my best stock thanks to old PS.

 

[Martynt74]

Same. In days of "lol due diligence" it was my best stock thanks to old PS.

God dammit. Ignoring the share price increase. I recently signed up for a email from a firm called DividendMax

DividendMax - notifications, declarations, forecasts and tools for UK private investors

For investors seeking dividend income in times of negative interest rates. Tools for planning future income and finding great yields

www.dividendmax.com

Figure it wouldn't be the usual shilling of companies from the usual suspects given it's mainly aimed at Yields rather than growth. 50% yield!

 

[silversurfer]

Maybe its a special dividend I forget but energy prices have fallen back some. I do wonder if we can repeat in winter 2023 a shortage of energy or not, some saying US nat gas is a buy etc.

I like how he lays out the data in this video quite neatly

Does anyone use Bestinvest as a provider ? wondering how flexible they are in self selection etc.

 

[Martynt74]

Just to use you guys to bounce some ideas off.

I've currently got ~15k in my investment pot, with the view to withdraw most when we look to emigrate over to Spain. Whether it be costs or towards a house etc. That's likely to be early to mid 2024. We're not reliant on the funds and might not even use them at all, and so i don't need to be as low risk as withdrawing it and sticking it into a savings account.

Whilst we're here now, i've been floating the idea of buying a car for ~£15k so we have one straight away when we move out properly and it's one less stress for the future. Initially i was thinking of withdrawing from my investments, but then thought about getting a loan instead.

Looking at Santander (my bank), i can get £15,000 at 5.4% over 3 years. This only costs £1200 in interest over the 3 years. Assuming i pay it off in 12 months time, that comes down to ~£500 probably. In theory (or hope) my investments will have risen by more than that in that time. Especially as i have a decent chunk in assets with decent dividends of 5-6%. The rest are in a few riskier shares such as Boohoo/Asos which have taken a battering but look to be on some kind of upside at the moment (obviously not guaranteed to continue)



What would people here do? The mega safe option is to just withdraw all the investments and use that for a car. However, i believe there's an opportunity cost there and would hope my investments return more than the interest payable, although obviously it's a risk as we all know anything could happen in the next 12-15 months!

 

[Deleted User 298457]

Just to use you guys to bounce some ideas off.

I've currently got ~15k in my investment pot, with the view to withdraw most when we look to emigrate over to Spain. Whether it be costs or towards a house etc. That's likely to be early to mid 2024. We're not reliant on the funds and might not even use them at all, and so i don't need to be as low risk as withdrawing it and sticking it into a savings account.

Whilst we're here now, i've been floating the idea of buying a car for ~£15k so we have one straight away when we move out properly and it's one less stress for the future. Initially i was thinking of withdrawing from my investments, but then thought about getting a loan instead.

Looking at Santander (my bank), i can get £15,000 at 5.4% over 3 years. This only costs £1200 in interest over the 3 years. Assuming i pay it off in 12 months time, that comes down to ~£500 probably. In theory (or hope) my investments will have risen by more than that in that time. Especially as i have a decent chunk in assets with decent dividends of 5-6%. The rest are in a few riskier shares such as Boohoo/Asos which have taken a battering but look to be on some kind of upside at the moment (obviously not guaranteed to continue)



What would people here do? The mega safe option is to just withdraw all the investments and use that for a car. However, i believe there's an opportunity cost there and would hope my investments return more than the interest payable, although obviously it's a risk as we all know anything could happen in the next 12-15 months!

Is the upside worth the downside? E.g. would 12k be very painful versus the happiness 16k would deliver?

 

[200sols]

I wouldn't be taking out loans at 5.4% and then hoping to beat that return over the next year or 2 via investments. The risk isn't worth it over such short timeframes iif there is any chance you will need the capital.

 

[Uther]

Personally if I had a one year timeframe I would take the 15k out of the stock market and put it into a one year bond paying a guaranteed 4% or so.

 

[Martynt74]

Is the upside worth the downside? E.g. would 12k be very painful versus the happiness 16k would deliver?

No, not really. It's money we don't really need, and the loan itself is affordable as it'd just replace what i'm currently putting away into savings each month.

The Cost of the loan is fairly low, and Dividends alone in the likes of BP, M&G, Vodafone and Investec would likely cover the cost of that. The risk is then against share price dropping. Given i'm working to budget to not need the investment money, if i wasn't looking to buy a car now i wouldn't touch the investments and would take the risk, likewise if i didn't have the investments i would have no issues taking out a loan to buy the car.

As weird as it is, mentally i can deal with losses better than i can deal with missed growth if that makes sense, which is why i'm erring towards the loan.

 

[Martynt74]

I wouldn't be taking out loans at 5.4% and then hoping to beat that return over the next year or 2 via investments. The risk isn't worth it over such short timeframes iif there is any chance you will need the capital.

Personally if I had a one year timeframe I would take the 15k out of the stock market and put it into a one year bond paying a guaranteed 4% or so.

Again, these are both good, and valid points. I know in my head it's the sensible approach. I think the current mental barrier is selling some of the stocks and crystalising the current losses, whereas i'm more open to the risk of them falling further whilst there is still some positivity (albeit currently)

 

[Uther]

Again, these are both good, and valid points. I know in my head it's the sensible approach. I think the current mental barrier is selling some of the stocks and crystalising the current losses, whereas i'm more open to the risk of them falling further whilst there is still some positivity (albeit currently)

Yes that's the million dollar question really. Stock market could just as likely jump 20% as lose 20% in the next year!

 

[Martynt74]

Yes that's the million dollar question really. Stock market could just as likely jump 20% as lose 20% in the next year!

Exactly, have applied for a loan and will see what happens, if the market starts getting twitchy i'll sell up and cover the early repayment. Ended up with Sainsburys which came in lower at 4.7%, although on this amount/term it didn't amount to too much difference (£<100)

Edit - Forgot about the beauty of Money Transfer credit cards. Currently a 2.5% fee with my Virgin cards, and repayments are always pretty low meaning i can just make the minimum and stick the rest into my savings pot earning 3%

 

[mid_gen]

No, not really. It's money we don't really need, and the loan itself is affordable as it'd just replace what i'm currently putting away into savings each month.

The Cost of the loan is fairly low, and Dividends alone in the likes of BP, M&G, Vodafone and Investec would likely cover the cost of that. The risk is then against share price dropping. Given i'm working to budget to not need the investment money, if i wasn't looking to buy a car now i wouldn't touch the investments and would take the risk, likewise if i didn't have the investments i would have no issues taking out a loan to buy the car.

As weird as it is, mentally i can deal with losses better than i can deal with missed growth if that makes sense, which is why i'm erring towards the loan.

Personally, I'd be reluctant to pull out of the market at the moment, especially if you have div stocks that'll cover the loan interest.

I am putting all my spare cash into the market this year. Missed these dips before, not doing it again.

 

[Martynt74]

Glad it's not just me.

Have sold my BP. That covered about £2500 and then the other £12k i've used a money transfer from my CC. 0% interest until July 2024 when it'll be paid off anyway. Only a 2.5% fee, so £300 penalty and i can live with that for the potential upside on the markets. Also much lower repayments vs a 3yr loan helping monthly cashflow.

The sale of my UK car will pretty much clear off the balance when we move over.

 

[413x]

Anyone else in kodal/prem?
I took out a holding in prem a few months ago and it's now up 70pc.
At this rate it will be my 3rd biggest holding.

Not sure if it's too late to get in now. But the hype train is in full roll.

In fact over the last 12 months my entire portfolio is up 25pc which I'm pleased with.


I'm very tempted to increase my house builder holding. I'm firm in the view that rates are about to peak. And the lows we have had are now the bottom of the market

 

[Syla5]

Finally took the plunge and grabbed my first S&S Isa before the tax year cut off, went with trading 212 and im pretty happy with that for now. Stuck a chunk in to set it and forget it funds, left myself about 7.5% of my pot to throw in and out of some individual stocks occasionally.

Now to decide if i re-declare with 212 for this year or go with something else. Also need to consider moving other stocks i have on different platforms in to the S&S Isa shell (i know this counts towards allocation but i dont plan on hitting the limit this year anyway).

 

[Bounce]

Even though the price of coal has dropped , Thungela is still a good stock , currently trading on a forward p/e of 3 and after the purchase of a mine in Australia and payment of dividend will have about £355m in cash left over….how many companies can you say have that much cash which is valued at £1.2b.

There are risks to it like every stock, it’s based in South Africa which isn’t great and the trasnet rail line isn’t the most reliable.

But it’s a cash cow

 

[platinum87]

Glad it's not just me.

Have sold my BP. That covered about £2500 and then the other £12k i've used a money transfer from my CC. 0% interest until July 2024 when it'll be paid off anyway. Only a 2.5% fee, so £300 penalty and i can live with that for the potential upside on the markets. Also much lower repayments vs a 3yr loan helping monthly cashflow.

The sale of my UK car will pretty much clear off the balance when we move over.

My answer to your original question goes heavily towards selling everything you need to buy said car once i get a good picture about the stocks that make up that 15k portfolio.

Out of which i think BP is probably the only good company.