Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Efour said:
Those of you that dabble in the US stocks, how would you approach the upcoming presidential election.

Sell up before on a high and buy back in after when it's calm or ride it out.

I'm not even sure who wall st favours... I'd assume it's trump but.... Yeah.
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I watched a youtube video where they analysed stock market preformance after elections... at the end of the day, it makes no difference.

Even if they have a total lettuce in charge like we did with Truss, common sense normally sorts it out in a democracy and the market will bounce back. The FTSE is currently out preforming the dev world tracker.

If your trying to time the market, good luck... :)
 
Efour said:
Those of you that dabble in the US stocks, how would you approach the upcoming presidential election.

Sell up before on a high and buy back in after when it's calm or ride it out.

I'm not even sure who wall st favours... I'd assume it's trump but.... Yeah.
Click to expand...
Pretty much just gambling this


I did sell before brexit and rebuy as I thought we were going to leave. But something like us president? No
 
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slinxy said:
I watched a youtube video where they analysed stock market preformance after elections... at the end of the day, it makes no difference.

Even if they have a total lettuce in charge like we did with Truss, common sense normally sorts it out in a democracy and the market will bounce back. The FTSE is currently out preforming the dev world tracker.

If your trying to time the market, good luck... :)
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Agreed.
I've watched a lot on this over the last few weeks and the consensus was for volatility in October ahead of a rally to the end of the year. There is good historical data t support this.
The biggest issue for me is the overvaluation in US equities and the debt in the US economy. The markets are betting big on AI and it's ability to drive efficiencies and revenues without considering any of the downsides like the unemployment of millions of people whose job is no longer required. That may be 2/3 years away but I think it is a risk.
There are lots of contradictory indicators at present and I'd say we are finely balanced. Long term treasuries have spiked again despite the rate cut. Gold and silver are soaring, Crypto going up, all of which point to hedges against equities. Quite few analysts feel we aren't out of the woods with inflation and the geopolitics is causing concern. I think thats why you will see this volatility for a while before the next bull comes along.

Personally I've rebalanced into short term money funds for a chunk of my portfolio as I can't afford 2/3 years recovery from a crash!!
 
LostCorpse said:
hopefully non of you own Super Micro stock.. just took a bit of a tumble due to accounting..
www.theregister.com

Supermicro's run for hills over sketchy financial reports

If SMCI is the AI Enron, Ernst & Young wants nothing to do with them
www.theregister.com www.theregister.com

perhaps an oppatunity if your not risk adverse and happy to hold.
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Not for me! Suspect a lot more to come out. EY first year as auditor and they hve resigned. That's a damning sign.
SP500 almost all red today at opening NVDA down 4% - seemingly driven by MSFT which is down 5% despite half decent results but they basically said that they can't grow their cloud and AI business fast enough and that will impact revenues. VIX up to 22 which is the highest . Even gold is down!
Strap in folks!
 
www.stocktitan.net

Palantir Reports Revenue Growth of 30% Y/Y, U.S. Revenue Growth of 44% Y/Y, GAAP EPS of $0.06; Raises Full Year Guidance on Revenue, U.S. Comm Revenue, Adj. Free Cash Flow, Adj. Op. Income Above Consensus Estimates on “AI Demand that Won’t Slow Down”

Palantir reports stellar Q3: Revenue soars 30% to $726M amid AI boom, with 54% growth in US commercial sector. See how the data analytics giant achieved profitability and raised 2024 guidance.
www.stocktitan.net www.stocktitan.net
16% boost on earnings

Where the palantards at?

I'm tempted to buy some palantir clothes and a karp poster for the wall
 
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Efour said:
Those of you that dabble in the US stocks, how would you approach the upcoming presidential election.

Sell up before on a high and buy back in after when it's calm or ride it out.

I'm not even sure who wall st favours... I'd assume it's trump but.... Yeah.
Click to expand...
Depends on your goals, what positions you have. Longer term I see little change to the fortunes of U.S companies unless Trump does go full on dictator but I don't see that. A lot of the stuff he's talked about doing (mass deportations, putting Dems in prison etc) I don't see him even remembering to do, if he wins.
So, not financial advice (he says while giving advice :D) but long term holds I see no change whoever wins other than some shorter term volatility. If someone has some short term trades that especially could be impacted by the election (ie, cannabis etc or prison related) then I'd probably close positions until the winner is officially announced.

Given the performance of U.S stocks over recent years I actually think a win by the Democrats will be more bullish. However, whoever wins, one thing to note about U.S stocks is that they have vastly outperformed over recent years. Such high returns probably won't continue
 
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Apples product and reputation peaked years ago.

I was negative on my whole ISA portfolio at one point this year, not even that long ago
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Palantir carrying my ISA, crazy P/E but I have faith.
down 26% on INTC and don't even care :D
 
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Sorry. I'm a complete newbie.

If I wanted to get into trading on the stock market is there a set of things I should do first to prepare myself? I'd only be able to invest a small amount but I'm really interested in business in general and I'd love to learn.
 
Cromulent said:
Sorry. I'm a complete newbie.

If I wanted to get into trading on the stock market is there a set of things I should do first to prepare myself? I'd only be able to invest a small amount but I'm really interested in business in general and I'd love to learn.
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Trading and investing are different things, decide which one's for you (probably investing).
www.investopedia.com

Investing vs. Trading: What's the Difference?

Investing refers to long-term buy-and-hold strategies that earn returns as the investment grows. Trading refers to the buying and selling of securities seeking short-term profit.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
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throwaway4372 said:
Trading and investing are different things, decide which one's for you (probably investing).
www.investopedia.com

Investing vs. Trading: What's the Difference?

Investing refers to long-term buy-and-hold strategies that earn returns as the investment grows. Trading refers to the buying and selling of securities seeking short-term profit.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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Thank you. That is very useful. Investing is what I had in mind but after reading that I am interested in trading as well (not that I am going to do it necessarily though). I'll do some searching to see what I can learn in more detail.
 
Cromulent said:
Sorry. I'm a complete newbie.

If I wanted to get into trading on the stock market is there a set of things I should do first to prepare myself? I'd only be able to invest a small amount but I'm really interested in business in general and I'd love to learn.
Click to expand...

Prepare to see loads of red numbers... and train yourself to think it's a good thing.. lol
 
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