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These high valuations are based on future earnings, if it looks like that is in danger then things can fall a very long way from these heights.
For big tech yes, for SME's and other AI consumers competition is very good news, if, as said by someone else it doesn't turn out to be Chinese tat. Basically less of a crash and more of a rebalancing
 
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I've sold a lot off. AI hype is propping a lot of tech up.
You have 2 big factors from playing out.

Is AI going to really monetise industry to the levels priced in?
If someone like this deepseek can come in and actually work on a fraction of the hardware you have a double bubble.
You really shouldn't sell off in response to one day moves like this. Make a considered decision to trade, do it when the time is right, don't react, at least, don't panic sell. Selling profits is fine :)
 
Anyone with even the slightest interest in AI and tech can tell you that this AI stuff is just a massive bubble.

These algorithms have existed for decades, they're nothing more than very complicated logic machines operating on an if-this-then-that model.

The difference with this latest AI boom is that they've managed to get it to leverage external resources, rather than a limited set of words and instructions like in the past. Add a veneer on top and it's a poorly-informed investor's wet dream.

Of course when the investors show up then the AI companies get all excited and create more hype so get even more investment and the circle perpetuates itself like we've seen here.

Strip away all the hype and glamour and what you have is the same logic models that we saw back in the days of King's Quest and Space Quest.

Granted it definitely has its uses, but it's a tool suffering from hilarious diminishing returns and that's what we're seeing now. It looks like it's run out of fancy party tricks and is now just becoming a tool like every other tool we use. It'll never become sentient, it'll never become proactive, it's just a logic algo to help supplement our current world.

And whilst the hype train is still going strong, once people realize that the AI world is just a load of algorithms and fancy party tricks, it's going to collapse like a house of cards.
 
I'm not convinced that Deepseek won't turn out to be more of a Deepfake and they're not being completely honest about the costs/methods used to create their AI.
It's irrelevant though. They've demonstrated that these US companies with colossal market caps don't really have any competitive advantage at all. AI is quite democratising really, and it will increasingly be powered by commoditised hardware.

We are probably witnessing the transitioning of the world's tech dominance from the US to China (along with renewable energy).
 
I'm not convinced that Deepseek won't turn out to be more of a Deepfake and they're not being completely honest about the costs/methods used to create their AI.
its interesting because China are pretty much providing the data sets for most of the AI models.
there getting the US to pay them for the work and then potentiall using the same data for them selfs.

We are probably witnessing the transitioning of the world's tech dominance from the US to China (along with renewable energy).
the only responce is : MAGA..
 
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Anyone with even the slightest interest in AI and tech can tell you that this AI stuff is just a massive bubble.

These algorithms have existed for decades, they're nothing more than very complicated logic machines operating on an if-this-then-that model.

The difference with this latest AI boom is that they've managed to get it to leverage external resources, rather than a limited set of words and instructions like in the past. Add a veneer on top and it's a poorly-informed investor's wet dream.

Of course when the investors show up then the AI companies get all excited and create more hype so get even more investment and the circle perpetuates itself like we've seen here.

Strip away all the hype and glamour and what you have is the same logic models that we saw back in the days of King's Quest and Space Quest.

Granted it definitely has its uses, but it's a tool suffering from hilarious diminishing returns and that's what we're seeing now. It looks like it's run out of fancy party tricks and is now just becoming a tool like every other tool we use. It'll never become sentient, it'll never become proactive, it's just a logic algo to help supplement our current world.

And whilst the hype train is still going strong, once people realize that the AI world is just a load of algorithms and fancy party tricks, it's going to collapse like a house of cards.
Neural networks are not simply 'a load of algorithms', dismissing it as such shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the technology tbh.

Yes there are a few basic mathematical operations are involved in the simulation of a neuron inside a computer, but what is created by the collective neural network is not an algorithm at all, it is a simulation of a real biological brain. What the latest hardware has done is enable these simple building blocks to start being scaled up to levels where they can meaningfully demonstrate intelligence at a level that humans find recognisable.

AI models that are for all intents and purposes just as complex and capable as human brains are simply a matter of time.
 
You really shouldn't sell off in response to one day moves like this. Make a considered decision to trade, do it when the time is right, don't react, at least, don't panic sell. Selling profits is fine :)
It's not the day move.
Its the ramifications 9f it.

AI is already overhyped
This development may take away any hope of monitisation, which was looking shaky.

Tech is priced for constant improvement, especially hardware manufacturing.

If efficiency gains like this can spring up, sounds like even clearer signals the big us tech has over spent.

Basically, can't see any real positives right now.. And more risk every month.
 
I should add that robotics, space etc I don't think will be impacted. Really, I think this will hit the chip manufacturers. Nvidia in particular
 
I'm not convinced that Deepseek won't turn out to be more of a Deepfake and they're not being completely honest about the costs/methods used to create their AI.
Whatever it is; offering distilled models which can be hosted locally on a relatively powerful PC for free is quite the disruptor for the US corps high computer and expensive paid models. I've been playing with r1-14b model, running with a 3080 and it's quite impressive with various logic and mathematical problems. It's not quick but it can return an extensive reply along with the verbose thinking, which is interesting showing its working through and auto-correction based on token / rewards. Add to that, it is running locally, siloed and with zero data collection.

However the makers have got here and whatever the costs / methods were used, if the net result to more open access to the public; I'm all for it. It will certainly shake up the US with it's assumed corporate competitiveness and AI moats!
 
I'm not convinced that Deepseek won't turn out to be more of a Deepfake and they're not being completely honest about the costs/methods used to create their AI.

As have many of the Chinese breakthroughs. That said, recent news does highlight the possibility of China gaining some decent ground on our tech.
 
Anyone have any idea how much nvidia is propped up by AI hype? And if we have a efficiency revolution coming how much "excess" stock of GPUs might be surplus to requirements?
17% as I type this, according to the markets !
 
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